Steve Plotnicki

@londonnative12 @matthewstoller That's because I'm Jewish and I know how other Jews feel. How on earth would I know how people who support terrorism feel about anything.

@steveplotnicki @matthewstoller But you seemed to instantly understand how the Israelis felt about Iran and Hezbollah firing missiles at them. Is this not similar?

One thing I find puzzling is that American Jews are mostly very liberal antiwar Democrats who almost certainly disapprove of this war. And the people who want to go to war over Iran are right-wing Republicans that love Israel. But 95% of synagogues have pro-Israel content.

@DavidAstinWalsh This again?

Antisemitism as a *term* dates back to the 1870s. And in any event, antisemitism -- like other forms of racism, bigotry, and prejudice -- is not metaphysical or ontological in nature, but emerge because of material historical processes.

@ajpy78 @mcgilcoli @philippilk I think the European allies want this sorted as well. No one wants Iran to have the ability to close the strait.

@mcgilcoli @steveplotnicki @philippilk I’d focus on the Trillion of US treasuries they hold myself. And consider the 5 trillion or so it’s European allies who it has screwed over hold.

Whoa! It’s happening! Multipolar shipping law is emerging. Iran is establishing a system for “friendly” ships to pass near Larak Island. Iran is taking full control over maritime traffic in Hormuz. Those who don’t play ball get their trade shut down and become impoverished. 🇮🇷

@mcgilcoli @ajpy78 @philippilk What % of the military light?

@steveplotnicki @ajpy78 @philippilk You do real that the US is less than 5% of the world’s population, right?🤨

@ajpy78 @philippilk Then they will have to pressure Iran to relent. People have to choose sides in war.

@steveplotnicki @philippilk At that point the US has a beef not with Iran but India and China

@AceHarlem299840 I'm not sure how that responds to my point as it is about Western music being able to absorb differ nt harmonic structures.

I mean R&B, and Jazz technically aren’t western and historically weren’t seen as such by europeans

@dilanesper But imagine the world we would be living in but for the Allies winning the wars. Go to Shanghai and people are still talking about how the Japanese treated them.

@steveplotnicki Yes, in the long term. Indeed, war supporters are really ignorant about how compounding works and what actually happens when you lose economic ground.

war is negative sum. you lose even if you are the "winner"

@History__Speaks Regime survival in a country that has been destroyed isn't much to celebrate. Hamas survived and isn't celebrating much these days.

Iran is clearly winning the war. Iran’s goal is regime survival and making the cost too prohibitive for the US to continue the war. They are well on their way to the latter, given the economic consequences of what they’ve done in Qatar and elsewhere, and also their destruction of American assets and relationships in the GCC.

@dilanesper @NYKnicks124 Palestinian terrorism has been going on since 1919 which is well before Iran got involved. The question is what form would it take today without Iran's financing.

@NYKnicks124 @steveplotnicki the belief that Palestinian terrorism is something Iran put them up to rather than an organic response to the situation is absolutely delusional

TBC, the actual theory of the war to its passionate supporters has nothing to do with nukes. It's "Palestinian terrorism results from Iranian support; if we install a regime that won't fund anti-Israel terrorism, it will stop". They just don't want to argue that to Americans.

@IdoHalbany Thank you for being one of the few intelligent analysts on X. I find it shocking how 90% of the posts analyzing these events come from a perspective of bias.

I see a lot of people are confused by Trump's post. Is he throwing Israel under the bus? Did he even know about the strikes? Or is this actually a message to the Gulf states? Let's bring some order to this: To begin understanding what's happening here, you first have to understand the logic of the Gulf energy arena. What's the real problem? The Americans have no real way to fully secure massive energy infrastructure in the countries neighboring Iran. The countries themselves - Qatar, KSA, and the UAE - don't have a way to do it either. And neither does Iran. These aren't point targets. Not a single platform, not two isolated facilities, and not one refinery. We're talking about enormous stretches of territory, kilometers of sensitive installations, giant industrial monsters spread across wide, exposed, vulnerable areas. You cannot really wrap something like that in airtight defense. That's why the real protection for these facilities never rested only on air defense systems. It rested on a balance of terror - "you don't strike the heart of my economy, and I don't strike the heart of yours". This is an unwritten taboo. Everyone understands that escalation can happen in many ways, but you don't break the region's energy infrastructure. The moment that happens, it's no longer just another military round. It becomes a real threat to the global economy. Put simply; you can fight in other rooms of the house. But once someone starts playing with the main electrical panel, the whole building goes dark. That's why everyone is especially careful there: This is exactly why all players usually handle energy infrastructure with velvet gloves. "To destroy", "to demolish", "to wipe out" - those are easy words to use. But a real, systematic strike on infrastructure of this kind wouldn't only hurt the enemy. It could halt production, shake markets, send energy prices soaring, and hurt everyone. Even if Hormuz remains open, that may no longer help if the sides begin striking production capacity itself. That's where the Americans don't want this arena to go. Israel as America's attack dog: It's amusing when people claim that "Israel controls the US", because nothing could be further from reality. If anything, what we're seeing here is a partially coordinated division of labor; Washington allows, encourages, and creates tactical shocks, while preserving for itself the exclusive right to determine their strategic meaning. Trump appears willing to let Israel generate shock. It can touch sensitive points, break routine, expose vulnerabilities, and create urgency. But the actor that frames the event, sets the limits of escalation, and translates it into regional and diplomatic order is the US. In that sense, Israel sometimes serves as an operational arm of the US - It throws the system into shock, and the White House then turns that shock into leverage, deterrence, or de-escalation. We saw a similar dynamic in Doha a few months ago when Israel attacked senior Hamas officials in Qatar. So what's Trump actually doing in this post? I don't think it's reasonable to attribute one goal to this, to conclude that Israel is being thrown under the bus, or to believe that Trump is simply unaware of what's going on. In my view, those are mistaken readings. You may agree or disagree with Trump, but it's hard to ignore that he doesn't operate like a classic diplomat trying to project a single, quiet, clean line. He operates through power, ambiguity, mixed signals, and the imposition of hierarchy. Trump's post is aimed at several audiences at once, and each of them hears a different message in it. * To Iran - don't escalate against the Gulf states, and do not drag the US in: Trump is saying something very simple to the Islamic Regime: don't interpret this event as if it were a direct American war. Don't use it as a pretext to escalate against Qatar, the Gulf states, or American assets. He does this through partial public distancing of the US from the event, while simultaneously sending another message - if Iran breaks the rules, it won't face only the IDF - it'll face the strongest military in the world. The Islamic regime has already shown sensitivity in the past to exactly this kind of ambiguity. * To the Gulf states - you're not alone: To Qatar and the rest of the Gulf states, Trump is sending a reassuring message; the US won't allow this to become a free-for-all over energy infrastructure. This may be the most important part - the Gulf states are especially sensitive to energy uncertainty. That's why Trump is signaling to them that another strike on Qatar or on Gulf LNG infrastructure would cross a red line. Not because of any special affection for them, but because they're a critical node in the global energy system. --- Trump's three objectives 1. Distance the US from the initiative, while creating control: By creating the impression of distance from the operation, he creates plausible deniability. That makes it harder for Iran to frame every Israeli action as a joint American-Israeli operation. This is classic risk management. 2. Warn Iran not to touch the Gulf states: This may be the most important immediate objective. 3. Rebuild the taboo against striking energy infrastructure: This is the broadest objective. Trump wants to allow pressure on the Islamic regime while at the same time preventing it from turning attacks on energy infrastructure into a norm. That way, he preserves room for action against Iran while also narrowing Iran's response options. If Iran chooses to retaliate by attacking energy infrastructure, Trump will be able to argue: "Israel acted on its own, but you're the ones who broke the taboo and turned the confrontation into a much broader crisis". From his perspective, that creates a stronger basis for American legitimacy to escalate. --- Judging by the reactions to that post, it seems the president is succeeding in luring everyone into the trap.

@BramantyaNigel @History__Speaks Me? I haven't threatened to kill anyone

@steveplotnicki @History__Speaks But you threatened to kill the Iranians to topple the Islamist government. That meant you behaved like a terrorist. x.com/i/status/20344…

Israel seeks one of two outcomes, vis Iran: 1) regime change & the installation of a US/Israel client state, OR 2) wrecking the country. They also don't mind doing both. But they will never tolerate a strong and independent Iran. It doesn't matter how "secular" Iranians supposedly are. Turks are more secular and are anti-Israel. Israel will never risk the emergence of an independent Iran as a regional power; none of the indigenous peoples of the region can be independent and strong.

@BramantyaNigel @History__Speaks I personally don't terrorize anyone except maybe my wife on occasion.

@steveplotnicki @History__Speaks So, you terrorise the Iranians? I thought Israel was a bastion of anti-terrorism in the Middle East. But, you behave like a terrorist.

@BramantyaNigel @History__Speaks They should resign to prevent their country fromm being destroyed

@steveplotnicki @History__Speaks Who are you telling the Iranian Government to resign, when almost all Iranians stand for him? On the contrary, the war is unpopular among the Americans.

@ParanoidPol Good cop bad copn

This contradicts previous messaging from the Israelis saying this was done in coordination with CENTCOM. Most likely reasons behind this are that this was a red line for the GCC, they advised Trump to blame the Israelis for the escalation, Trump told Netanyahu he was going to do so, and now everyone waits to see if the Iranians chew on the bone or ignore it and keep striking oil & gas.

@MarioNawfal So they shot their load on trying to bring the war to an end. Sounds pretty desperate.

🚨🇮🇷 Iran just hit 9 countries in a single night, including 7 of the wealthiest nations on earth This was Tehran's answer to Israel striking the South Pars gas field, the world's largest, earlier today. The most intense retaliatory barrage of the entire war, and Iran is now the only country on the planet simultaneously attacking seven of the richest nations by GDP per capita: 🇮🇱 Israel: Ballistic missiles and cluster munitions over central Israel. Two killed in Ramat Gan. Four Palestinian women killed in the West Bank by an Iranian missile. 🇶🇦 Qatar ($110K GDP per capita): 14 ballistic missiles fired. Ras Laffan LNG hub suffered "extensive damage" confirmed by QatarEnergy. 🇦🇪 UAE ($100K): 13 ballistic missiles and 27 attack drones intercepted. Iran threatening imminent strikes on energy facilities. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia ($35K): Evacuation orders issued for Samref Refinery and Jubail Petrochemical Complex. Waves of missiles intercepted over Riyadh. 🇰🇼 Kuwait ($75K): Ballistic missiles intercepted. U.S. facilities targeted again. 🇧🇭 Bahrain ($65K): U.S. 5th Fleet headquarters under continued assault throughout the war. 🇴🇲 Oman ($32K): Drone strikes on industrial zones. Workers killed. The last neutral Gulf state is now taking fire. 🇯🇴 Jordan: U.S. bases struck as part of the widening multi-front campaign. 🇮🇶 Iraq: U.S. Embassy in Baghdad under nightly drone siege. Combined GDP per capita of the Gulf states under attack: over $417,000. These are some of the most prosperous, developed nations on earth, and Iran is hitting all of them simultaneously while its own economy collapses. This is Operation Madman at full throttle: torch the region's wealth until the world demands the war stops. Source: @rami_hashimi / Reuters / @itswpceo

@whittomd @iyad_elbaghdadi Richard Haas wrote about it on Substack today. richardhaass.substack.com/p/the-strait-o…

@steveplotnicki @iyad_elbaghdadi That would be great.

Given how easy it is to disrupt shipping in the Straits, even from a distance, even "boots on the ground" won't open it. The only logical, non-catastrophic way to open it is to find a way to stop the war.