Variance Lover

@poip2i @devjoshstevens @Polymarket @shayne_coplan Good question. Not sure if it's been publicly addressed since my last tweet

@devjoshstevens @variance_lover @Polymarket @shayne_coplan Twap for crypto market ? Is they no longer in development anymore ?

Open letter to @Polymarket and especially @shayne_coplan: I've been trading on Polymarket for a long time. I am one of the biggest traders on the entire platform and I interact with it on a daily basis. And at this point I'm seriously questioning whether the team has simply given up. I'm not even trying to be dramatic. Wtf is actually going on? Has everyone made enough money that nobody cares anymore? Is the team completely overwhelmed? Are priorities completely broken? Is there no leadership? Is it incompetence? Because the current state of the platform is honestly embarrassing. Every maintenance seems to follow the exact same script: announce 10 minutes of downtime start 20 minutes late stay down for an hour deploy changes that break multiple existing systems leave the bugs in production for weeks And somehow nobody seems concerned. Example: ~1.5 weeks ago an update broke tick sizes. The matching engine started rejecting orders that matched the correct tick size after a tick size change was published. This was immediately visible after deployment. It's still broken. Nobody seems to care. Then for the last two days Polymarket's own RTDS feed, the feed used for all crypto markets, has been broken. The issue was marked "resolved" 10 hours ago. It still isn't resolved! Did anyone spend literally 5 seconds checking whether data was actually being published before closing the incident? Because it sure doesn't feel like it. Communication is somehow even worse than the bugs. Half the changes never get announced. The other half are hidden in random Discord side conversations. Major trading-impacting changes get silently rolled out with zero documentation. You ask support. They say they'll ask the team. Then you never hear back. Or you get the same canned response you've already received three times. The team keeps saying communication will improve. It never does. Then there's the rebate and fee situation. Taker tiers were supposed to launch on May 28. A week later they still weren't live. Nobody acknowledged the delay. The docs still said May 28. To this day there still hasn't been a single taker rebate payment. And the official position is apparently that missed rebates won't be back-paid. How is that acceptable? How are traders supposed to adjust strategies, thresholds, and risk when nobody knows what fees they are actually paying, what rebates they are actually earning, or how much of the promised rewards the platform simply decides not to distribute? That isn't transparency and it is clearly destroying trust. The craziest part is that every update creates fresh opportunities for exploiters. Just in the last couple weeks we've had: queue position jump exploits taker delay bypass exploits ghost fill exploits various matching and infrastructure bugs order spam exploits Millions of dollars have been extracted from legitimate users through platform failures. The response? Increase rate limits. Seriously. A huge amount of latency issues today are caused by order spam that is directly incentivized by broken infrastructure and exploitable mechanics. Fixing the root causes would help. Instead we get band-aids. Which raises another question: Does Polymarket have a testing environment? Does it have staging? Can updates be rolled back? Because from the outside it honestly looks like production is the testing environment. Every maintenance introduces new failures. Every maintenance gets partially reverted. Every maintenance creates more issues than it solves. This shouldn't be happening at a company valued in the billions. Meanwhile manipulation that has been repeatedly reported for months continues largely unchecked while manipulators keep extracting money from normal users. And surprise: Volume is declining. Prediction markets as a whole are growing. Yet Polymarket just posted its second consecutive month of declining volume. Meanwhile Kalshi has become the clear market leader in many categories and is now outperforming Polymarket by large multiples in areas where Polymarket used to dominate. Honestly? It's not hard to see why. Every serious trader I've spoken to says the same thing: Kalshi feels stable. Polymarket feels like you're one deployment away from disaster. I know multiple people who would happily trade Polymarket full-time if they trusted the platform. They don't. Not because of competition. Because they don't trust Polymarket itself. My trust in this platform is at an all-time low. And I genuinely don't understand what is happening internally. Maybe the response will be that the team is busy with the World Cup or other initiatives. Fine. Then stop shipping half-finished features. Stop deploying untested fixes. Stop breaking live trading. Slow down. Focus on fewer things. Do them properly. The most concerning part is that so many decisions feel like they were made by people with no actual trading experience. The product decisions show it. The infrastructure decisions show it. The market structure decisions show it. Building the future of prediction markets requires understanding how markets actually function. Right now it often feels like nobody is steering the ship. I want Polymarket to succeed. But from the perspective of someone who uses the platform every day, this is bordering on unusable. @Polymarket @shayne_coplan What is going on?

@u739173 @Polymarket @shayne_coplan aaaand looks like it's down again

@variance_lover @Polymarket @shayne_coplan rtds is back up now lol

@u739173 @Polymarket @shayne_coplan haha yeah nice timing

@ohiobug981 @manipuhator @Polymarket @shayne_coplan

@variance_lover @manipuhator @Polymarket @shayne_coplan 🥰

@LudolfReitramel @Polymarket @shayne_coplan 200% please

@variance_lover @Polymarket @shayne_coplan we need higher taker fees!

@manipuhator @Polymarket @shayne_coplan @ohiobug981 I support the movement!

@variance_lover @Polymarket @shayne_coplan @ohiobug981 why does this guy not shoutout #rant" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">catpoop.org/#rant ?

I was just scammed for $500K by Polymarket. I am "willo2", the top holder of YES on "MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May 31st". Here's what happened:

Dear @Polymarket Team, please don't pull the same moves as OpenSea, Base, or those other platforms we can't even remember. Stringing people along with airdrop hints just to farm liquidity and exploit them was their biggest mistake. Keep a healthy dialogue with the community. Listen to them and be ready to meet them halfway. This is your best move. Don't drag out the airdrop timeline and turn the community against you. Best.

@penguin_pmkt Just using multiple accounts doesn't mean that you're exploiting. I was saying that exploiters often rotate accounts to stay undetected, not that ppl using multiple accounts are exploiters.

@variance_lover we use multiple accounts to avoid copytraders how are we exploiting

One advantage I haven’t seen many people talking about: liquidity providers are now incentivised to consolidate their trading into a single account. This means exploiters who constantly rotate their accounts are at a structural disadvantage. Interested to see if this changes the dynamic after the rollout.

@combustiion yes

@variance_lover ohio

@guyukyukgu I think any reasonable aggregated price would be an improvement over the current instant settlement

@variance_lover What about VWAP?

@jamesrosst @tzedonn What was their response at the time?

@variance_lover @tzedonn We reported on this a few months ago, interesting to see how much has been extracted

@Euanker @chongxian Yeah they have been very silent on this

@variance_lover The manipulator is @chongxian. Profited somewhere in the $5-10m range, rugging regulars and market makers. Polymarket have been aware since January and haven’t done anything about it despite their “market integrity” rules.

Loving how the @CramSchoolClub Telegram community is immediately discussing this post and what to do next

@CramSchoolClub If we have any Chinese speaking members that wanna check out what is happening in these groups, would be very curious to get more details.

@biaoge_1985 lol what??

@variance_lover 对 我是这个社区成员 ， 操控价格轻而易举