Chase

@parlettodotbet 58% Here's his analytics page: polymarketanalytics.com/traders/0xb40e…

@0xChaseTM what's his winrate though he looks promising

This Polymarket trader made $134K because of one mistake the crowd keeps repeating 100 years of academic research proved this bias exists everywhere people bet. Polymarket runs on it daily Bookmark this - once you see the bias, you can't unsee it Here's how it works: It's called the Favourite-Longshot Bias The crowd treats price as probability 8¢ = 8%. 92¢ = 92% Across every betting market ever studied, that's wrong The formula: True Edge = Market Implied Probability − Realized Frequency 5¢ contracts resolve YES only 2–3% of the time → 2–3% real edge 95¢ contracts resolve YES 97–98% of the time → 2–3% real edge The crowd never closes the gap Why the bias exists: The brain loves asymmetric payoffs "$5 → maybe $100" feels like a deal "$95 → maybe $100" feels boring Casinos run on this. Sportsbooks run on this. Polymarket inherited it The strategy: Sell the dream. Fade overpriced longshots. Buy underpriced favorites Repeat thousands of times. Let the edge compound Real examples: → Iran Strike on Israel by Feb 28 → No at 15.3¢ → Lady Gaga at Super Bowl LX → No at 13.2¢ → Hantavirus pandemic in 2026 → No at 91.1¢ → $54K position Every trade collects premium from the crowd chasing lottery tickets that almost never hit The key insight: He's not predicting events He's collecting tax on hope The math has been public for 100 years The discipline to fade lottery tickets - that's the rare part Watch the breakdown below ↓

@auTechArena Look for markets where the longshot side (5–20 c) trades on emotional narratives - war, celebrity, disaster Low liquidity + dramatic story = retail pays the most

@0xChaseTM Nice one, absolutely eye-opening, saved for later. Any quick tips for spotting this early in smaller markets?

@0xChaseTM Another banger by Legend

@Dipper_pol Actually, it is very interesting Dm me when you've read it

@0xChaseTM Look sooo interesting,booked

@51bodila It's not just about formulas - it's about cognitive biases Check it out, you'll like it

@0xChaseTM another banger article about formula ???

@0xRicker Appreciate it! Got some interesting info for y'all!

@0xChaseTM damn, looks like alpha, i gona read it tonight

@antpalkin Thank you, broski

@0xChaseTM cool visualization

@Kaffchad yeah systematic + patient = compounding

@0xChaseTM Greenblatt's formula is a testament to the power of systematic investing, delivering remarkable returns with simplicity.

This lecture is the simplest systematic edge ever published - and the same framework runs on Polymarket today Greenblatt's formula turned $10K into $1M while the S&P barely cleared $73K over 16 years Bookmark this - the math is so simple it almost feels illegal Here's the formula: Combined Rank = Rank(ROC) + Rank(Earnings Yield) ROC = how good the business is Earnings Yield = how cheap the stock is Rank ~500 companies on both. Sum the ranks. Take the top 30. Hold 12 months The results: 30.8% annual returns. 16 years $10K → $1M S&P same period: $10K → $73K Worst year: -4%. Best year: +79.9% When S&P lost 43% over 3 years → formula returned +73.5% Why almost nobody runs it: 5 months a year it underperforms. sometimes whole years Fund managers can't survive that - clients pull capital quarterly The edge belongs to retail with long horizon and discipline The Polymarket parallel: Greenblatt: rank stocks on ROC + Earnings Yield → take top 30 Polymarket quants: rank buckets on ECMWF + GFS divergence → enter biggest gaps Same brain. Different table → rank systematically. no opinions → never override the model → accept some periods underperform → let small consistent edges compound The key insight: Greenblatt didn't beat the market with intelligence He beat it with a 2-metric formula and the discipline to follow it Polymarket isn't different The math is public. The discipline is rare Watch the lecture below ↓

@de1lymoon From TV Forecast to professional trading, he knows this niche so well

A former TV weatherman quit his job and turned $505 into $10,100 on a Karachi temperature bet. $125,696 P&L. 2,592 predictions. Same edge. Same 1,900% JoeTheMeteorologist used to read forecasts on television. Now he reads them on Polymarket How it works: you can do all of this on → predictparity.com/?code=moon He doesn't need a model. He has a degree in meteorology and 15 years of reading weather charts When the market prices a bucket at 5¢, his trained eye sees ~14% probability. That gap is the trade Every winning entry: 5¢. Every winning ROI: 1,900%. The math is identical because the edge is identical His winning trades all sit in the same pattern: $1,944 → $38,892 (Paris 19°C YES at 5¢, +1,900%) $650 → $13,002 (Ankara 14°C YES at 5¢, +1,900%) $505 → $10,100 (Karachi 34°C YES at 5¢, +1,900%) A weatherman with no bot. No code. No quant degree. Just the same skill he used on TV applied to a market that pays him for being right The job was reading the sky. The market never changed

@antpalkin “Must watch” alert XD

@0xChaseTM I watched the entire video - it's very informative, thank you

@leshuuuk @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket 7 grand in a week, he is grinding!

Polymarket user made $16.7K on weather markets in just 45 days This dude is printing money by betting on weather all over the world every single day: +$244 - today +$6.9K - past week +$15.2K - past month He’s flipping pocket change into massive gains: $16.64 -> $4082 $28.57 -> $2346 $42.52 -> $1059 Specific ranges don't matter to him, he trades across all odds Position size is almost always under $100 With a 64.5% win rate over 6548 predictions, he’s a rising star in weather markets

@Damir_Akaza Of course, broski Morning coffee and this video will help you start the week off right!

@0xChaseTM These smart complicated things definitely shouldn’t be read on the last day of the weekend... I’ll save it for tomorrow)

BRYAN JOHNSON ANALYZED HIS GIRLFRIEND'S VAGINA. NOW HE'S ANALYZING HIS BALLS. This man operates on a different level entirely. April 30, two minutes after giving his girlfriend oral sex, he posted her vaginal microbiome report to his million followers. → 100/100 score, top 1% of all vaginas → 98.7% dominated by Lactobacillus crispatus - the most protective species a vagina can host → no STIs, no bad bacteria, the lab found absolutely nothing wrong → post gets 21 million views Internet reacts: "dude charts his girlfriend's p**sy instead of the stock market" Then last week he drops the balls update. 100% of men have microplastics in their semen right now. Every single one. Bryan had 165 particles/mL in November 2024. 18 months of daily saunas, reverse osmosis water, and removing every plastic item from his life later. → November 2024: 165 particles/mL → July 2025: 20 particles/mL → April 2026: 0 particles/mL Potentially the first human being alive to achieve this. Zero microplastics in his balls. Top 1% vagina in his bed. Posting about both at midnight. The rest of us are just trying to drink enough water.

@HuySolo_BBW Nowadays, it’s very important to understand that

@0xChaseTM The idea of markets as ecosystems is truly thought-provoking.

This Oxford lecture explains why every quant fund beats Polymarket retail traders The framework Citadel, Jane Street and Renaissance use - explained by the MIT professor who built it Bookmark this - 60 min that change how you think about markets forever Here's the principle: Andrew Lo didn't accept the Efficient Markets Hypothesis He replaced it with something that actually describes how markets behave Markets aren't physics. They're biology. Not equations. Ecosystems The shift: → Classical economics: rational agent, equilibrium, optimization → Reality: 1998 LTCM. 2007 quant crisis. 2008 crash. → Behavioral economics added bias names. Lo built a unified theory The central insight: Market participants behave the way they do because of evolution Optimized for survival in the savanna - not for trading on Polymarket "Irrationality" is often rational in evolutionary terms - wrong context The probability matching example: Coin shows heads 75% of the time. Rational play: bet heads every time. What humans actually do: bet 75/25 split. Looks irrational. Costs expected value. But bees do it. Pigeons do it. Fish do it. Too consistent across species to be a bug Lo's evolutionary model: When outcomes are independent across individuals → maximize expected value When outcomes are correlated → randomize. probability match. survive What looks like a bug is group insurance against systemic shocks "Irrational" individually = optimal at the species level Why this matters for Polymarket: → retail crowds react to headlines - that's the savanna brain firing → quant funds price the ecosystem - not the rational agent → "irrational" prices aren't noise - they're the species protecting itself → the edge: read the ecosystem, not the equation The hedge fund parallel: Lo calls hedge funds "the canary in the coal mine" They adapt fastest. They signal systemic risk first Same logic on Polymarket - quants adapt to mispricing before retail catches up The key insight: Retail trades the chart Quants trade the ecosystem One keeps winning. One keeps losing Watch the lecture below ↓

@DmitriyUngarov Great lecture for future builders

@0xChaseTM Definitely worth attention

@DmitriyUngarov @EthPrague @XJustmichael @Trezor What a fabulous location for a meet up!

Prague 🇨🇿 hitting different today 🖤 Managed to swing by @EthPrague and finally link up with my guy @XJustmichael in person - energy was immaculate! Massive shoutout to him and the whole @Trezor team for the fire gift 🎁 Moments and real connections like this are the real alpha in this space ♥️

@me_cool_off According to the world situation, we should keep an eye on him

This trader made +$566,000 in just one day on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire! Account: @wan123?tab=positions?via=me_cool_off" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@wan123?tab=po… Total PnL: +$1,056,000. Only 277 trades! After Trump announced a 3-day ceasefire, he bought YES on two dates: > May 31 for $38,000 at 11.3¢ > June 30 for $25,000 at 8.7¢ As a result, he turned $63,000 into +$630,000 in just one day! Net profit: +$566,000! This trader clearly understands geopolitics - he previously made his fortune on the Iran-US conflict. To copy the trades of this geopolitical guru use the TG bot: @mecooloff" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@mecooloff