One & Done Optimizer

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The data from the first half tells you everything you need to know heading into the second half. ✅ The top-10 earning picks averaged >4% ownership. The best picks are often relatively low-owned ✅ 3 of the 10 highest-owned picks earned $0. At 15%+ ownership, a win is the only valuable outcome. The edge in One-and-Done isn't finding the best player. It's finding the right player at the right ownership. 🔗 1doneoptimizer.com

The top-10 highest-owned picks tell a different story. 6-of-10 picks underperformed our projected earnings. Our ownership projections missed by an average of 1.9 percentage points on these picks.

Crunching numbers from the first half of the One-and-Done season. The average ownership was 3.9% for the top-10 earning picks of the season. 4-of-10 were sub-1% owned. Our ownership projections missed by an average of 1.1 percentage points on these picks.

Ownership projections are the most underrated part of One-and-Done strategy ⬇️ "Across high, medium, and low ownership tiers, your odds of landing a $1M+ week are basically the same."

My outright bets this year Fitzpatrick: 2-0 Every else: 0-55

Scottie Scheffler’s median Round 4 score is 66 — the best on the PGA Tour this season. R4 scores: 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 68 | 71 | 73

Justin Thomas shot a 76 in Round 1 Fifteen strokes worse than the course-record 61 he fired last year on his way to victory

@ThePME Getting ready for a nap

Brooks hanging at Harbour Town this morning

One & Done Optimizer projected ownership vs RickRunGood/Mayo actual (aggregate): Henley — 10.9% vs 11.6% Cantlay — 7.9% vs 11.0% Fitzpatrick — 5.9% vs 10.6% Scheffler — 12.0% vs 9.7% Schauffele — 4.9% vs 7.2% J. Spieth — 14.9% vs 7.1% Fleetwood — 2.6% 4.0% Young — 3.3% vs 3.2% Missing on Spieth had us low on a few other top names. Good luck everyone!

@FFStarr6 He’ll be low-owned but his accuracy OTT could be an issue here

@1nDoneOptimizer Thoughts on Theegala ?

RBC Heritage ⛳️ Projected One & Done Ownership Tiers 15%+ → Spieth 10-15% → Scheffler, Henley 5-10% → Cantlay, Fitzpatrick Who are you rolling with? 👇

@moconnor135_ Seems like an extremely good fit

@1nDoneOptimizer He fits just not consistent

@moconnor135_ His ownership? Should be <2%

@1nDoneOptimizer Any word on Si Woo Kim?

@TomainoMitchell We’ll know soon! The projection for Henley has been 📈 so wouldn’t shock me

@1nDoneOptimizer You’re so good at projecting ownership for these contests but feels like I haven’t been seeing anyone taking spieth. I’d guess Henley is the highest owned in that 15+% tier

@tyleroc5 It’s rare to be able to sneak in Scottie. A win from him at 12% ownership would be a great result. I think Fleetwood will be one of the best leverage plays.

@1nDoneOptimizer Thought Scheffler might come in lower and wanted to potentially use him in a field without Rory Was heavily between Fitz and Fleetwood seems like Fleetwood might be sub 4%

@PistonsGuy Agree that Cantlay deserves high ownership. I'd be surprised if he's higher than Spieth.

@1nDoneOptimizer think cantlay may be the highest owned... course history + two good showings in a row and has better odds to win the spieth both 72% available in mayo cup

@jjhawk84 Lower ownership = more leverage You stand to gain more on the field if you hit big on a low-owned player. Fading a high-owned winner hurts, but in golf the win probabilities are low enough that it's usually better to stay off the chalk.

@1nDoneOptimizer Strategy wise is it good to have these percentage guys or better for low owned?

@jjhawk84 Wasn't on my radar but has been getting some steam... making me reconsider. Will still be relatively low-owned.

@1nDoneOptimizer How do you feel about Hovland

@shakey12381 May not be a better time to play Henley. People seem to know it.

@1nDoneOptimizer Henley but if I had any stones it would be berger

@TheRealJLofgren Cantlay and Fitz will be owned but nothing too crazy. Both are solid options. Min Woo is a leverage play with upside - he's off the radar this week.

@1nDoneOptimizer Between Cantlay and Fitz... maybe Min Woo. Really could use a top finish which has me leaning Fitz but Cantlay's history here is hard to ignore.