Crypto Rover@cryptorover
THIS IS THE LAST WEEK TO SAVE THE BIGGEST CRYPTO BILL IN US HISTORY.
AND ITโS STARTING TO SLIP.
A week ago, the window was clear: April 13 and April 20 were the only two weeks the Senate Banking Committee had to move the CLARITY Act.
That was the entire window.
Now we are at the end of that window, and the bill is still not scheduled for a Banking Committee markup.
That is the key problem.
Because without a markup in April, the path breaks.
No markup โ no committee approval
No committee approval โ no Senate floor vote in May
And if it doesnโt reach the floor before the May 21 Memorial Day recess, the calendar becomes a bigger issue than the policy itself.
After May, the midterm cycle takes over.
By late summer, Congress is no longer focused on passing major legislation.
And as already stated by lawmakers, if this bill slips past that window, it likely gets pushed out or dies in its current form.
Now look at what changed this week.
First, the timeline slipped.
Tim Scott has publicly said there is no fixed date and listed three unresolved issues:
Stablecoin reward structure
DeFi developer protections
Internal alignment within Republicans
Each of these is estimated to take weeks, not days.
That pushes the earliest realistic markup into May.
Second, the biggest blocker flipped.
Coinbase, which previously opposed the bill and caused delays earlier this year, has now publicly supported it.
That removes one major risk.
Third, the White House stepped in.
The Council of Economic Advisers released a report showing that the banksโ main argument that stablecoins would drain deposits has minimal real impact.
That weakens the core resistance from the banking side.
So from a policy standpoint, the bill is actually in a stronger position today than it was weeks ago.
But the timeline is worse.
And timelines decide outcomes in Washington.
Markets are starting to reflect that shift.
Prediction odds for 2026 passage have dropped from the 70%โ80% range earlier this year to around 50% now.
That is not about fundamentals.
That is about timing risk.
There is also a new issue that was not part of the discussion earlier.
Law enforcement is now pushing back against the DeFi safe harbor provisions.
That creates another delay point.
So the current setup is very clear:
The bill already passed the House with strong support.
It has backing from the industry and the White House.
The core policy framework is agreed.
But it still has no confirmed date to move forward in the Senate.
And every week of delay reduces the probability of it passing this cycle.
What matters now is very simple.
If the Banking Committee schedules the markup in the next few days, the bill still has a path to the Senate floor in May.
If that does not happen, the window starts closing fast.
This is no longer about whether the bill is good or bad.
It is about whether there is enough time left to pass it.