@CRUDEOIL231 Do you have any paid providers to recommend, say MarineTraffic or VesselFinder? Thank you!
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blackhole
277 posts
blackhole
@888_7th
Former quant. Now investor. Always try to be rational. Opinions my own and not financial advice.
Center of the Galaxy Beigetreten Mayıs 2019
425 Folgt322 Follower
It’s frankly nauseating to see ppl misleading the public with MarineTraffic’s free-tier data just bc they’re too cheap to pay for a $100 subscription.
Since everyone is obsessively posting MarineTraffic screenshots, I’ll step in and filter the noise myself—though I don’t typically rely on this platform.
To get a real picture, we need to ignore Handysize tankers as they are practically irrelevant here; I’m focusing only on MR tankers and above(MR: 40k–55k DWT, LR1: 55k–80k DWT, Aframax: 80k–120k DWT).
Under normal steaming conditions, MR/LR1s cruise at 12.5–14.5 knots, Aframaxes at 12–14 knots, and VLCCs at 13–15 knots. Speeds vary based on eco-speeding or load status—ballast vessels typically run about 1 knot faster than laden ones.
Since our focus is whether the market will be flooded with oil, we must look exclusively at laden tankers. Specifically tankers carrying cargo and transiting the Strait from West to East. We also need to exclude vessels drifting near ports or those at anchor; we only care about those actually underway.
While 12–15 knots is standard, given the current friction in the Strait, I’ve set a conservative filter of 6 knots or higher to capture only those vessels definitively in transit.
The results are exactly what you see in the image. I don’t believe AIS is the ultimate truth, but I have to ask: why are ppl posing as shipping experts when they don't even know the basics of what to look for?
Yes, product tanker traffic has ticked up—it looks higher than this week’s average. But for those curious about crude? Ask yourselves how much a few Aframaxes can truly move the needle.
Furthermore inbound transits remain extremely low—nowhere near the numbers required to support a meaningful restart in production. And one last thing: did anyone even bother to check the sanction status? I suppose that’s too much to ask.
#oott #iran
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@AJEnglish @yui_torikata I think the Iranians have learned that they don't need to sell oil, but just need to trade oil futures.
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BREAKING: The IRGC’s joint military command has issued a statement claiming that control of the Strait of Hormuz has now "returned to its previous state" due to the US’s continuing blockade of Iranian ports.
🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/wjkib2
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@NickNemo17 @EpochTimes Please get a media that is not the Epoch Times...
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Bessent, Powell, the banks say Private Credit is not systemic. Give this a watch and decide for yourself if it is.
Not much prerequisite knowledge needed.
Thank you @EpochTimes for covering this issue that is important to every American
(they just don’t know it yet.)
Market Insider@MktInsiderShow
Could Private Credit Lead to a Crisis? | Nick Nemeth youtu.be/cVBRc3n3h3Y #Economy #PrivateCredit
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blackhole retweetet
Thread. 🫡
Ed Finley–Richardson@ed_fin
@HFI_Research @citrini 1) There is a nuance here: We could see a toll going forward... or not. It may be that some ships paid, or not. What is incorrect is the *assumption* that most ships have paid, or are willing to pay, or ‘reports’ by journalists of payments reflect reality.
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Where are people still getting price improvement in small caps? Moomoo, IB, Schwab?
Tried Schwab and IB. Fills were absolute shit.
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@MikeFritzell Monopoly but management is kind of arrogant and not that shareholder friendly. I would be keen if this changes.
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Anyone's still keen on TravelSky 696 HK? The stock has really gone nowhere over the past decade
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@rr1955 @sentdefender Too bad we have an executive that has bankrupted many companies
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@sentdefender This is where a good executive makes right decisions. You don’t want committee deciding, of course its viable for committee.
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U.S. President Trump’s National Security Team is gathered at the White House, with the President working in the Oval Office or Oval Dining Room all day receiving updates on operations in Iran, a senior official with the White House tells ABC News.
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@Mr_Neutral_Man We will be done "shortly, very shortly. "
We hit them "hard, very hard"
US have "oil, so much oil"
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Still trying to figure out what Trump is really trying to say
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@iancassel @puppyeh1 What brokerage would you recommend for OTC stocks?
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@puppyeh1 If you invest in US OTC stocks with any size IBKR is absolutely horrible. The worst.
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IBKR is great in terms of market access; FX; and margin rates. But if you have any kind of issue; irregularity; special sit (delisting/corporate event; etc) - even of the most vanilla or modest variety - it immediately transmogrifies into a hellhouse of pain.
Just be aware if you deal with them. This is the reality.
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@thepunditoor @MikeFritzell Index construction is part of the culprit too. Many good companies cannot be bought due to foreign ownership limits---adverse selection in play.
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@MikeFritzell also rich Asians are still biased towards “becoming a property developer and then a conglomerate” as the end goal rather than locking in and monopolizing one high moat thing…
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This is unbelievable. A period of 15 years
Casino Capital@CasinoCapital
@MikeFritzell Classic EM Explosive economic growth for the last 2 decades -> stocks down 50%
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@comfyleverage At each market bottom he does pretty much crash out, but he crashes out a bit more often than that.
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does this count as the ackman crash out?
Bill Ackman@BillAckman
Some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices. Ignore the MSM. One of the most one-sided wars in history that will end well for the U.S. and the world. And we have the potential for a large peace dividend. One of the best times in a long time to buy quality. Ignore the bears.
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@QuipusCapital Israel and GCC won't be ok with 4. And maybe only Trump is ok with that. I don't see it as being likely.
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My read of the sit:
Most military commentators agree Iran has at least strategic parity and can reach assured destruction deterrence, even if on the conventional front it was decimated. If that is indeed true (and might not be), then the US faces four options
1- status quo, bombing/missile tit for tat as is. Oil would slowly flow but Iran controlled. Not great but not terrible for markets.
2- moderate escalation via boots on the ground. The life costs would be large but avoids escalation on the part of Iran. Neutral for markets, specially if oil flows (authorized by Iran).
3- escalate the bombing / missile tit for tat. As said, if Iran has deterrence parity, this leads to the worst global scenarios. Terrible for markets.
4- reach an agreement which, if Iran has deterrence, will require large concessions to Iran (sanctions, missile program, sovereignty over Hormuz as further deterrence reassurance), even if these conditions are only implemented under the table. This can be costly for the US in the long term, but can be spinned as victory in the short term, and markets will love it. I think and hope this is the most likely scenario.
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Back today after being out of commission for a while. I lost my dad about 10 days ago. We were close. I knew the day would come, he was declining health-wise, but it didn't soften the blow. But he lived a full life and we spent good time together recently and that is comforting.
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