Barby

@shanaka86 What if we don’t want all this AI?

OpenAI is spending $10 billion with the company whose entire business is displacing NVIDIA GPUs in inference. Four months after NVIDIA "invested" $100 billion in OpenAI. September 22, 2025: NVIDIA announces a $100 billion letter of intent to invest in OpenAI. September 24, 2025: OpenAI's CFO tells CNBC most of the capital will be used for NVIDIA chips. October 2025: SoftBank sells its entire $5.83 billion NVIDIA stake and reallocates toward OpenAI and AI infrastructure. January 14, 2026: OpenAI signs a $10 billion, 750 megawatt multi-year agreement with Cerebras. Four primary disclosures. One mechanism. No one has compressed them in public. The closed loop was presented as NVIDIA's moat. It has already surfaced as the fracture. NVIDIA at $4.88 trillion is not a stock. It is a container holding five fractures the market has priced independently. Circular financing. Depreciation arbitrage. Custom silicon substitution. Helium and sulfur wall. Power wall. Q3 2026 is when they come due together. The earnings-quality signal no analyst has named. Ernst and Young signed Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet 10-Ks inside one calendar month in January 2025. Three different answers on the useful life of the identical asset. Amazon shortened from six years to five, citing "the increased pace of technology development, particularly AI and machine learning." Meta extended to 5.5 years for a stated $2.9 billion depreciation benefit. Alphabet held at six. One auditor cannot hold three answers forever. NVIDIA's largest narrative customers are already shipping silicon that is not NVIDIA. Anthropic past one million Trainium 2 chips. Google Ironwood in production. Microsoft Maia 200. Meta and Broadcom on four new MTIA generations in two years. Cerebras at 750 megawatts. Not rumor. Capital-committed, production-shipping fact. AI capex keeps rising. NVIDIA's share of the rent does not. The binding constraint is no longer GPUs. It is megawatts, helium, and sulfur. PJM's 2027/28 capacity auction cleared 6,623 MW UCAP short at the $333.44 per MW-day cap. Qatar LNG repair timeline per CEO al-Kaabi: three to five years. ADNOC April 2026 sulfur: $600 per tonne, up from $520 in January. TSMC CFO Wendell Huang on April 16: chemical and gas cost impact on profitability "too early to quantify." TSMC beat Q1 2026. Raised full-year revenue growth guidance above 30%. Pushed capex to the top of its $52 to $56 billion band. TSM closed down roughly 3% on the print. When a record beat and a guide-up cannot hold the tape, the market is already pricing the tail the company itself warned about. Four populations are betting in four directions on the same $4.88 trillion security. Insiders: billions in sales across hundreds of Form 4 filings, zero open-market purchases. Hedge funds: fastest global equity selling in thirteen years per Goldman prime brokerage, March 2026. Retail on Capital.com CFD: 90.4% long. Sell-side: 41 buy, 1 hold, 1 sell, average 12-month target $273.57. Smart money is out. Retail is all in. Someone is wrong. Central probability of a 30%+ repricing inside 18 months: 55 to 65%. The thesis dies only if TSMC Q2 prints above 67% gross margin with no chemical cost language, NVIDIA FY27 Q1 beats and raises with no hyperscaler restating server useful life, and two custom silicon programs publicly cancel. Until then, the regime shift has already occurred. The portfolio weighting has not caught up yet. Full 12,000-word primary-source NVDA thesis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@shanaka86 So complicated!

SEVEN CLAIMS Twelve hours after the ninety-four minutes, Iran’s Parliament Speaker published a six-point counter-signature on his verified X account. The first point alone sets the frame. The President of the United States made seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false. That is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, lead Iranian negotiator at the Islamabad round earlier this month, posting in Persian and translated by X, attacking the ninety-four-minute blitz point by point. Here is what he wrote. The numbering is his. Point one. The President made seven claims in one hour, all seven false. Point two. They did not win the war with these lies, and they will certainly not get anywhere in negotiations either. Point three. With the continuation of the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open. Point four. Passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be conducted based on the designated route and with Iranian authorization. Point five. Whether the Strait is open or closed and the regulations governing it will be determined by the field, not by social media. Point six. Media warfare and engineering public opinion are an important part of war, and the Iranian nation is not affected by these tricks. Now read that against the Trump timeline we documented twelve hours ago. Point three answers the 10:40 AM Trump post that Iran had agreed to never close the strait again. Point four answers the 9:06 AM Trump post that the strait was open for full passage. Point five answers the entire narrative architecture of the ninety-four minutes. Point six names the operation. The falsifiable prediction in our earlier thread was this. Before May 1, Araghchi or IRGC Arabic would publicly contradict the permanent-closure claim in writing. Ghalibaf is neither, but he is the Parliament Speaker, a former IRGC commander and former Tehran mayor, and the man who led Iran’s delegation at Islamabad. The contradiction arrived in twelve hours, not twelve days, and it arrived in a form the Western wires will carry by morning. CENTCOM’s ledger tells the matching operational story. USS Rafael Peralta turned a merchant vessel back yesterday. USS Spruance has now turned back an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel that attempted to evade the blockade after leaving Bandar Abbas. CENTCOM confirms twenty ships complied, zero evaded. The blockade holds. Ghalibaf’s point three holds. The transaction, by the President’s own 9:27 AM definition, is not 100% complete. Track one, the public narrative, says Iran surrendered. Track two, the operational blockade, says Iran has not. Track three, the Iranian counter-signature, says the surrender was fiction and the decision will be made by the field, not by social media. Track four, the European forty-nine-country Initiative, says the United States will not be the sole arbiter of who writes the next Hormuz order. Four actors. Four positions. One strait. Sunday’s Islamabad round has to reconcile all four or break against one. Falsifiable prediction. Before May 1, either Araghchi or the IRGC Arabic account adds written endorsement of Ghalibaf’s six points, or the Sunday round produces a signed framework that explicitly addresses points three, four, and five by name. Kill condition. If Ghalibaf publicly retracts any of the six points before April 30, the counter-signature thesis weakens materially. Seven claims in one hour, rebutted in six. The ledger is now bilateral. Sunday Islamabad decides whether it closes signed or broken. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@bardofely @DrTOMontgomery The Dr says it’s about loss of Arctic ice which affects food sources :(

@DrTOMontgomery In my #song "Where Does All The Plastic Go?" I sing: "It's not hunting that will kill the last whale, plastic will do it and it's a very sad tale." We are killing the #whales in so many ways. youtube.com/watch?v=82bFd3…

🌎 We've turned this world into a living hell for gray whales. Thousands of miles they swim, only to find their food has gone—the Arctic ice ecosystem they relied on destroyed. Increasing numbers of their emaciated bodies are being found, as they had nowhere else to go. 1/2

We asked our members what hits they are taking at the farm gate during the fuel and fertiliser crisis and the impact is huge: 👉Hundreds of thousands of $ added to ballooning budgets; 👉Production declines of 30%; 👉Two out of three farmers have changed their planting decisions by delaying or planting less. Read more in today's @theage: shorturl.at/7QG2I #vicfarmers

Good from Canada.

@AJEnglish Traumatic. Wars are the worst.

“In Sudan now, you are always running. Running from war. Running for food." Families across Sudan endure years of displacement, hunger, loss — in pictures aje.news/yrkyfp

@sahouraxo @Suzymarxist There is plenty of outrage!

Nothing to see here Just Israel blowing up civilian homes in Ainata — a centuries-old village in South Lebanon Another historic piece of Lebanon wiped out before the eyes of the world Pure terror. Pure destruction And yet, no global outrage. No condemnation. No accountability

@volcaholic1 Leaders of the world are likely to Nuke us all before then :(

🚨 New research suggests the AMOC is more likely to collapse than previously thought. Scientists call the finding “very concerning”, warning that a collapse could have catastrophic consequences for Europe, Africa and the Americas. theguardian.com/environment/20…

@mattjcan It’s the flag straight above his head. You just cropped the image to suit.

PM seems to be missing a flag 🤔

@mattjcan Low hit Matt.

“real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years.....All models and observations are pointing in the same direction: a very strong El Niño with significant impacts on global climate" It's coming folks And it looks like being a whopper theguardian.com/environment/20…

@MSF @only2beyourself So wrong.

We haven't been able to bring any supplies into Gaza, Palestine, since 1 January 2026, because Israeli authorities are blocking aid. Read from our medical adviser in Gaza about how this is affecting operations in our hospitals and clinics: msf.org/gaza-israeli-e…

As you can see, darling Gabriel looks like a different hog now. That frail little dying waif who arrived here just before Easter is gone, and cheeky happy Gabriel now weighs an amazing 1030g. Now his chest is clear and his breathing is normal I have started giving him treatment baths for his ringworm. His scabby nose, crusty ears and baldness in his coat of spines, around where it meets his fur skirt, will soon be a thing of the past, too. Gabriel's history: x.com/HedgehogCabin/…

X is now awash with fake news on the US-Israel-Iran war. Wasn’t like this last week.

@DrJStrategy Have you ever been in a battle?

Food for thought. Trump has floated the idea of a naval blockade, and Kharg Island would almost certainly be on the table. Even as the first Iran–US talks falter, a fragile ceasefire, gradual mine‑clearance in Hormuz, and mounting pressure on Kharg are quietly reshaping who holds real leverage in the global oil market. If the US forcibly reopens Hormuz to commercial traffic while effectively blockading Kharg, you’ve essentially switched the “oil chokepoint” from the strait itself to Iran’s main export terminal, so you get a partial global relief with a very Iran‑specific strangulation.

@Ssaniya_ Chernobyl, Hiroshima and such like haven’t been enough to wake the world up to the horror.

Coming Next: Türkiye is 3 weeks away from making a nuclear bomb Spain is 3 weeks away from making a nuclear bomb South Korea is 3 weeks away from making a nuclear bomb

@ramanmann1974 Agree; the arrogance is ridiculous. NONE of them should have nuclear weapons.

If U.S, Russia, France, U K, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea can have nuclear weapons, why can't Iran have nuclear weapons.....just asking ??

@Acyn The Pope isn’t a fan of Donald either.

Reporter: Why did you attack Pope Leo? Trump: I don’t think he’s doing a very good job. He likes crime I guess. We don’t like a pope who says it’s ok to have a nuclear weapon. We don’t want a pope that says crime is ok. I am not a fan of Pope Leo.

@Pontifex Christians used to go into battle with priests blessing them!

God does not bless any conflict. Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs. Military action will not create space for freedom or times of #Peace, which comes only from the patient promotion of coexistence and dialogue among peoples.