Brett Erickson

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Brett Erickson

Brett Erickson

@BrettErickson28

Managing Principal, Obsidian Risk Advisors Board Member: DePaul, Seton Hall, Loyola Chicago Featured in WSJ, NYT, WaPo, Bloomberg [email protected]

Beigetreten Mart 2026
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Brett Erickson
Brett Erickson@BrettErickson28·
Journalists/Media: Glad to chat economic warfare and sanctions. Just send me a message.
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Brett Erickson
Brett Erickson@BrettErickson28·
A major struggle inside the Trump Administration right now lies in the incompatibility between ideology and reality. For many, getting the United States to launch a war against Iran was their single most important ambition. Wipe out the regime, strengthen Israel, eliminate those that despise America. And it became everything to them. Then, their dreams came true on February 28th when Donald Trump launched Operation Epic Fury. But it quickly fell apart after the Minab bombing that killed more than a hundred schoolchildren, and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Now, almost three months later, the writing is on the wall. The United States is cornered, with no viable pathways to victory. No military options exist, blockade has failed disastrously, and Trump is staring down the barrel of legacy defining failure alongside his closest advisors. Trump, and those around him that built their entire careers dreaming of toppling the Iranian regime, are now doomed to hand them their greatest victory, and that is something that they are unwilling to accept. But it’s the reality they are faced with. With the Trump Administration desperately grasping at straws and clinging to pipe dreams, it is time that they do what is right for the United States, and right for the world. Cut a deal. It will be a bad deal. It will destroy many people’s careers, and it will destroy the legacy of Donald Trump. But not every movie is Rudy. Sometimes the movie is Cool Runnings. A great story that ends in defeat. The Trump Administration needs to understand that their ideology and reality are incompatible with one another. There are no viable pathways to victory. There are no sweetheart deals. There are only concessions that will destroy the administration. But for the sake of the world, the Trump Administration needs to make these concessions.
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Fope@hft_trading1988·
@BrettErickson28 No, it doesn't. It's obvious that keeping the straits closed in perpetuity is not sustainable, and neither is a supposed "Iraninan victory" that can't translate such "Victory" into tangible economic benefits.
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Brett Erickson
Brett Erickson@BrettErickson28·
@Aghaye_Ario I think that is what the Trump Admin is holding out for… 1% pipe dreams.
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Mr. Ario
Mr. Ario@Aghaye_Ario·
@BrettErickson28 Unless some miracle drops out of the sky, we are heading straight off a cliff.
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Observer@PhenomAnon_X·
@BrettErickson28 There's a way Trump can avoid taking the legacy destroying L, and its the only way: Sneak attack 🇮🇱
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Brett Erickson
Brett Erickson@BrettErickson28·
@Aghaye_Ario Unfortunately I think that is quite possibly true. I am concerned ego > reality.
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Mr. Ario
Mr. Ario@Aghaye_Ario·
@BrettErickson28 Neither Trump nor Netanyahu give a damn about saving their countries. They’d happily scorch the earth and watch the whole thing tank instead of just taking a personal loss.
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Brett Erickson
Brett Erickson@BrettErickson28·
@Esportsisking1 Absolutely delusional. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY serious believes this would be the case.
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Jnl@Esportsisking1·
@BrettErickson28 They said the ground invasion of Iraq would be a bloodbath for America it was swift and easy, if we invade Iran it will be just as swift a 2 week job…..
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John Hegarty
John Hegarty@JHegarty11712·
@BrettErickson28 "a regime more cemented in their power than ever before." Perhaps that is why our own internet is on?
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Brett Erickson
Brett Erickson@BrettErickson28·
Internet access in Iran is being restored. This is not the action of a regime worried about being overthrown by their population, it is the action of a regime more cemented in their power than ever before. Yesterday afternoon, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian announced that the Internet shutdown in Iran would be lifted. This is now being confirmed by NetBlocks. Initially imposed by Iran’s National Security Council in response to the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, this Internet blackout lasted 87 days, until finally showing signs of relief today, May 26th. But this lifting of Internet restrictions follows a wider trend that we are seeing inside of Iran. On February 28th, also due to the U.S./Israeli strikes on Iran, the regime closed down the Iranian stock market. This was primarily done to ensure no panic selling or mass selloffs that could spiral out of control. Then, on May 19th, Iran began resuming trading activity. These are not the actions of a regime concerned about mass protests. They are the actions of a regime that is stronger than ever before. More confident than ever before. And more supported by their citizens than ever before. That does not mean that the Iranian people overwhelmingly support the regime currently in power. They most certainly do not. But what is clear is that the Iranian people have now a common enemy in the United States and Israeli, and have rallied around the flag in a way that ensures the regime will not be toppled due to the economic warfare campaign and blockade of Iran being imposed by the United States. Washington needs to accept that the jig is up. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. They have all the cards. And they are able to withstand any economic warfare pressures we try to throw their way. Iran has an exponentially higher pain threshold now than the United States, and a pain threshold orders of magnitude beyond what the global economy can afford to bear. The only option for Washington is the accept this reality, and make the best deal they can in order to end this disastrous war of choice. That will come with unsavory concessions to a regime that is legitimately terrible. That will mean likely the permanent destruction of President Trump’s legacy, and the destruction of the legacy of those around him. But if the Trump Administration truly cares about the United States. If the Trump Administration truly cares about the World. They need to make a deal.
Brett Erickson tweet media
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DM@terrafirma12·
@BrettErickson28 This is not a nuclear deal. Trump is basically having to pay reparations for having started a war on behalf of Israel. The nuclear negotiations come later. Meanwhile, Trump will probably allow Israel to bomb Iran, as it is now doing in Gaza and Lebanon.
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Brett Erickson
Brett Erickson@BrettErickson28·
@raiderswin1983 MAGA would certainly disagree. But if he loses this, they certainly would not.
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Brett Erickson
Brett Erickson@BrettErickson28·
@Esportsisking1 So you propose full scale ground invasion that is unlikely to be successful and results in many Americans dead for a war they do not support
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Jnl@Esportsisking1·
@BrettErickson28 Well 60 million died to stop Hitler and it was worth it, if Iran is stopped we will have a million years of peace…..
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Brett Erickson
Brett Erickson@BrettErickson28·
@veterenarchik And this is why he needs to do the right thing for America, even if it’s not the right thing for himself.
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_@veterenarchik·
@BrettErickson28 Well, what country his donors represent and who brought him to power?
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Gunfighter
Gunfighter@ChaoLiu24399552·
@BrettErickson28 I could be wrong but my understanding is: if we’re negotiating, we need leverage. The blockade alone is not enough, so adding military pressure, such as attempting to reopen the strait by force, even we fail to fully open the strait, it could make Iran’s occupation unsustainable.
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Brett Erickson
Brett Erickson@BrettErickson28·
@MrGlass2025 I think this has been now made abundantly clear to every American. What was once taboo is now widely accepted as truth.
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Mr. Glass 2026
Mr. Glass 2026@MrGlass2025·
@BrettErickson28 I think we'll have a draft if need be. Israel completely controls the Trump Administration. It's remarkable how much influence they have over the entire Republican party.
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_@veterenarchik·
@BrettErickson28 How can he cut a deal without Israeli approval? And even if he cuts a deal without their approval, the deal will fall apart if Israel doesn’t stick to it.
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Kyle Parkerson
Kyle Parkerson@KyleParkerson·
@BrettErickson28 How likely are they to double down with Mossad threatening them with assassinations/Epstein files? If they double down I think JD Vance will be made the political sacrificial lamb.
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Jnl@Esportsisking1·
@BrettErickson28 This is 1938 ism……we fight till total victory, ground troops and all…..
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Brett Erickson
Brett Erickson@BrettErickson28·
@MattRJBrodsky You gotta operate in reality man. We’re cornered. It sucks, but denying it won’t change anything.
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Matthew RJ Brodsky
Matthew RJ Brodsky@MattRJBrodsky·
I oppose everything that smacks of defeat and is dressed up in Obama language. And this is also a two-way street. The 5-year old morons on Trump's comms team need to sit down and STFU before attacking us as we are the ONLY constituents left that back Trump on his military action.
Hudson Institute@HudsonInstitute

Even in this outcome, the United States would still achieve a significant strategic gain. The pessimistic scenario is not the administration's goal but remains, in @Doranimated's view, the more likely outcome. Republican hawks will have more influence over this process if they work within the president's framework rather than reflexively opposing it.

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