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Seeing as it is clear the blockade and economic warfare campaign failed miserably, I want to highlight some of my major quotes that, if listened to, could have helped to avoid this catastrophe:
Bloomberg, May 2nd:
“Washington is operating on a status-quo assumption that Iran will sit idly by and absorb this pressure and move toward collapse on a predictable timeline. That fundamentally misunderstands how regimes behave under sustained economic warfare. They do not fold, they adapt.”
The New York Times, May 5th:
“Iran is not particularly close to even starting to shut down its wells. Sanctions and the blockade will move the needle, but there is no feasible scenario by which they will produce the necessary result in a feasible timeline for Mr. Trump. Even if the war ends today, it will be multiple months before things return to normal.”
Bloomberg, May 23rd:
“There’s not really a lot of incentive for them to capitulate when they know that the shackles come off in a couple weeks. A fully unified Western sanctions front would absolutely tighten the screws on Tehran over the long term. But the global economy does not have the luxury of an extended timeline.”
The Washington Post, March 21st:
“This move directly contradicts Trump’s own statements that the United States is considering winding down this conflict. You don’t unsanction Iranian oil if you’re winding down. This is the action of an administration that has no exit ramp and knows it. The word for that is desperation.”
The Washington Post, April 30th:
“We are banking on being saved by a silver bullet that is flawed in a number of ways.”
Reuters, March 20th:
"The easing of sanctions raises concerns about the rapid depletion of Washington's economic toolkit to dampen oil prices. If we've reached the point of loosening sanctions on the country we are at war with, we're really running out of options."
The Hill, April 25th:
“We are really all-in on this economic warfare campaign, and Iran is calling our bluff here. If we lose on the river here, we’re now several more weeks into this conflict with no progress being made, and the global economy is going to suffer for it.”
DropSite, May 1st:
“Iran will still receive revenues from exports shipped out between January and April, they will not necessarily see the full weight of the economic impact from this blockade for several more months. If the blockade takes another 2-3 days to force them to capitulate or reach an agreement, that’s fine. If it takes 2 months that is a nonstarter for the global economy.”
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