ADC

$QQQ weekly: 23 - 27 Mar Price action: oversold The Fed: turning hawkish Mkts & Narratives: Iran unpredictable, private credit problems Breadth: oversold Sentiment: approaching bearish extreme Seasonality: good in April Short-term view: looking for a bounce, but could start from lower levels open.substack.com/pub/chartnotes…

BoA on SPX gamma: “SPX gamma reached historically negative territory last week, ending Thursday at -$3.5bn (<1st %ile since 2014), driven primarily by dealers short 31-Mar 6475 strike puts [see other post on this]. "As this short gamma regime has become more entrenched, the boost to 1m realized vol has risen to roughly +0.8v. And absent new option flows, SPX gamma is expected to remain negative next week across a wide range of spot levels. Despite this, SPX close-to-close realized vol remains subdued, even after Friday’s selloff—near 15.5% and half the VIX level (~31), as memories of last April’s +9% rebound linger and appear to handicap US equity investors from more rapidly pricing in the stress visible in commodity markets.” So BoA sees gamma remaining at “historic lows” (which means dealers have to “chase” moves amping up volatility). The good news is they see it falling on moves higher until around 6600 meaning upside volatility should build until that level. Still it takes a move over 6900 to get us out of this high volatility negative gamma environment.

🗣️ Morgan Stanley's Wilson Sees S&P 500 Correction Entering Final Stage

That's it. I give up.. Donald Trump is a time traveler. 20/20 interview 1987. Wtf.

Berkshire Hathway losing Warren Buffett as CEO and heading into a stage 4 downtrend after a 2.5-year uptrend is not a good reflection on the economy Berkshire is often a reliable indicator on the economy as it owns a diversified basket of stocks in various industries (finance, industrials, consumer, tech, insurance etc).

We are just weeks from major disruptions to mining, EVs, and all such things due to Helium and Sulfur shortages It is not the end of the world, but it will likely end the business cycle unless solved within 7-10 days from here. Full study out on @RealVision and Nowcast IQ

Here's a few timeless charts from the past to prompt a bit of thinking in the present... Weekly ChartStorm classics: chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and…

@RealSimpleAriel @mb_ghalibaf @TraderLion Bravo!

Ladies and gentleman meet your 2026 US investing champion @mb_ghalibaf. Excited for the upcoming @TraderLion interview 🤣🙏

Warren Buffett’s greatest lesson: NEVER CHASE. In the market, you have time. If an exceptional company trades at insane prices, don’t buy it. Wait for an exceptional company at a reasonable price. When you find it, invest heavily. If you don’t, wait.

@Mr_Derivatives Yep, bounce conditions in place, but might start from lower down. Discussed in my Substack today - open.substack.com/pub/chartnotes…

Fear meter will hit single digits tomorrow. Somewhere between 6-9. This is probably not the best time to enter fresh shorts imho. Wait for a DCB to re-short if anything if you must.

$NAMO Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator -39.50 Every green circle on this chart marks a short-term bottom, and every single one of them came when this indicator crashed to the green line near -75 ++ Oversold? Yes. Real flush 'sell everything' day? No.

$SPX bottom on Fridays? Bespoke data on 97 corrections since 1928 shows Fridays as the 2nd-least common bottom day (15 times), after Wednesdays (10). Mondays (26) and Tuesdays (28) lead. Bear markets (20%+) follow the same pattern: Friday is least likely. $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $IWM $DIA $VIX h/t @aynirealtor

If anyone tells you that in order to be successful in trading you need to make some unknown discovery on your own... This is a lie!! - I learned about volatility contraction and progressive exposure from Mark. @markminervini. - I learned about momentum bursts and Episodic pivots from Pradeep @PradeepBonde - I learned about the importance of creating a model book for myself with 100s of past examples. As well as the idea of focusing on higher ADR stocks from Kristjan @Qullamaggie - I learned about stage analysis from Stan @StanWeinstein13 - I learned how to read and interpret COT data from Jason @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt - I learned the right side of the V concept and proper bet sizing on A+ opportunities from Lance @TheOneLanceB - I learned to think a little more contrarian from watching @TheShortBear - I learned about the flat base breakout and value in leading groups from @PatrickWalker56 - I learned about the HVC/HVE edge from @AmeetRai - I learned about trading more aggressively during high momentum periods from @DanZanger - I learned about the Undercut and rally or Double top short sale setups from Gil Morales @gilmoandco - I learned how to think about creating and implementing systems from @Peoplewish - I learned the failed follow through setup on an intraday timeframe from @InvestorsLive - I learned about the importance of prior day channels from @danshep55 - I learned about support and resistance gaps for entries from @NickDrendel - I learned about using the 50sma as a guide to measure extensions from @jfsrev - I learned about creating a daily trading plan from Marcel Link. - I learned about the CANSLIM methodology from Bill O'neal I'm sure there are many I missed but the point is: Trading knowledge is passed down from one generation to the next. But it is up to us, the trader, to implement what we have learned in a safe manner while we put together all the pieces for ourself. We live in a time where you DO NOT need to make up some magical elixir for trading in order to be successful. All the people mentioned above have found an exploitable edge in the market, and like myself relentlessly execute that edge over and over. I am personally grateful for all of the educators I've had along my journey; which is part of the reason I so willingly share any bit of knowledge I acquire along the way. The same way they all graciously imparted knowledge on me.

After U.S. forces turned China’s most advanced anti-stealth radar—the JY-27A—into little more than lawn art, Xi reportedly ordered the execution of its chief designer, Yang Wei. Engineering with Chinese characteristics…

$SPY Put Volume spiked on Friday. Previous spikes came close to marking bottoms for the S&P 500. Will this time be different?

@IfindRetards @grok is this real?

Imagine being in a room full of these insufferable retards.

@HenrikZeberg Not sure about that source

I’m certain few nations have taken notes on how to strike a US carrier. How damaging has this intelligence been to the general deterence in say South/East China Seas? That a previously perceived undefeatable military asset - may actually be defeatable? Can be overwhelmed by swarms of drones - and missiles… Some laundry fire btw!

Margin debt rose to a record high, with the rate of change reaching levels suggesting excessive speculation. Reversals from extremes, like we have seen recently, have often been associated with tops and consistent with much lower-than-average returns up to 18 months later.

@Mr_Derivatives Well, tbf, indicators are getting into bounc conditions. But wonder if the bounce starts quite a bit lower than people think...?

My newsfeed general consensus: $SPY a near term 2-4% bounce before the next leg drops down to $600-$610. Is everyone getting this too? Or what is your fintwit newsfeed feeding ya?