Chris Wecht

I took over the projections for @FantasyPts two years ago We track our projection accuracy across all players on the DK Main Slate each week and compare to other major projection providers across the industry I had a strong first season in 2024 but not the best After a really strong Week 18 FantasyPoints finished the NFL regular season with the highest correlation of projected DK points to actual DK points Projections are really really good throughout the industry so the edges are minor but they can make a big difference in a singular week People think projections is largely just a model that spits out numbers but there is so much subjective stuff that goes into it. Coaching tendencies, depth chart moves, transactions, etc. all require a ton of time analyzing and deciding what is real and what is just noise Hope this helps put FantasyPoints on the map as a serious DFS content and data provider

2026 Season Long Projections are LIVE on @FantasyPts fantasypoints.com/nfl/projection… QB1: Josh Allen RB1: Jahmyr Gibbs WR1: Puka Nacua TE1: Brock Bowers A lot will change between now and Week 1 but feel pretty good about these pre-draft

SOME PERSONAL NEWS 🫡

Sorry to hear about the layoffs at PFF today. If you were affected and are looking for your next opportunity in NFL data, fantasy, or betting, please reach out. My DMs are open. We’re always looking for great talent. Best of luck to everyone impacted. 💼🏈

@PSidikman @FantasyPts They are already in the works

Hi @ChrisWechtFF. As you know, the FFPC holds their dynasty rookie/free agent drafts starting May 2. I'm a redraft guy, but this year I adopted a couple of orphans. It would be fabulous if you could create an early 2026 projections cheatsheet to provide the @FantasyPts vision of the upcoming season in time for that draft. I know that is usually not available until early summer. I also know that you will have little time to make adjustments after the NFL draft to publish before May 2. But that's why we choose @FantasyPts, to do the difficult and follow up shortly with the impossible. Thanks.

@RyanJ_Heath @FantasyPtsData Pretty sure the Lions don’t have the TEs to run a lot of heavy personnel stuff. There was also a quote of Dan saying he didn’t think they’d bring that over a ton

A WR scores 32% MORE fantasy points when FEWER than 3 WRs are on the field Per @FantasyPtsData, the rates each 2025 offense used 3+ WRs on their pass plays 👇 Notable playcaller moves: - Chargers (3rd) get Mike McDaniel (4th-fewest) - Lions (13th) get Drew Petzing (5th-fewest)

@Schultz_Report @ESG_Baker @Exclusive_SG @BGWhitefield Ricard is gonna play so much with two TEs that can’t block

Pat Ricard’s deal with the #Giants makes him the highest paid FB in the NFL in a deal negotiated by @ESG_Baker and Tony Bonagura of @Exclusive_SG.

@FG_Dolan @BGWhitefield Bush wasn’t even the main RB on the team by then? Pierre Thomas was the main guy I think I did forget Jamaal Lewis in his rookie year

@ChrisWechtFF @BGWhitefield Ravens too. They actually did it in Jamal Lewis' rookie year.

This is an insane talking point considering the financial ramifications of taking Love inside the top-8 is marginally different than paying him the Etienne/Walker deal. but.... it comes with the enormous cost to acquire him in that YOU HAVE TO SPEND A TOP 8 PICK (or higher) TO ACQUIRE HIM. I would much rather have KW3 on his 3yr/43.5 contract and save the top-10 pick. YEESH.

@BGWhitefield Well Gonzalez will probably be making ~$10M more than Gibbs here shortly so I think that’s your answer

@ChrisWechtFF How good would the Lions be with Christian Gonzalez at CB and Devon Achane at RB? (this is a real scenario that could have happened)

@BGWhitefield The Jahmyr Gibbs pick may have been the difference in the Lions going to a Super Bowl and not over the last 2-3 years There has not been an NFL team to win the Super Bowl with an RB they drafted inside the top 15 since the 1983 Raiders with Marcus Allen

@ChrisWechtFF am I crazy here?

Buccaneers EPA and Success Rate splits with and without Mike Evans on the field since 2021 On the field: EPA per Play 0.085 Success Rate 51.1% Off the field: EPA per Paly -0.035 Success Rate 46.5% Data via @FantasyPtsData

Only Jakobi Meyers had a better EPA/play when on the field for the Jaguars last season than Bhaysul Tuten

Its a small sample because he was only off the field for 97 defensive snaps but no player had a worse Off the Field EPA/play than Anzalone's -0.1135 in 2025 for the Lions Next closet was Hutchinson at -0.0749 cc @BGWhitefield

Eagles defense with Jaelan Phillips on the field vs off the field from Week 10 on: EPA/play On Field: -0.111 EPA/play Off Field: -0.173 Phillips was the 3 most important player for the Eagles defense from Week 10 on Only Nolan Smith, Jordan Davis, and Nakobe Dean had a larger EPA/play on/off delta

Colts WRs EPA per play when on the field in 2025 Snaps On / EPA per play AD Mitchell: 117 / 0.125 Ashton Dulin: 153 / 0.099 Michael Pittman: 864 / 0.090 Alec Pierce: 773 / 0.058 Josh Downs: 560 / -0.0166 Downs and Pierce where the only 2 WRs with a better off the field EPA per play and now are the Colts primary WRs in 2026 Data via @FantasyPtsData

Wow now Luther Burden might be a starter 😅

I’m not kidding when I say no one thinks about of UFL more than Jake year round You should see how many times he tried to give Jacob Saylors a legit projection during the season for the Lions this past fall

A QJ trade would explain this comment a lot

I wonder if the Chargers add to their WR room for 2026 GM Joe Hortiz said when looking at WR traits "separators" are vital but you also need players that can make contested catches in the RZ when the field shrinks 2025 LAC WR Contested Catch Rates Tre Harris: 75% Keenan: 62.5% Gadsden: 44% QJ: 38.5% Ladd: 20% Data via @FantasyPtsData

From the NFL Combine: Sean Payton stated the Broncos are targeting running backs and linebackers and will continue to look for "joker" traits in their RBs and TEs Also mentioned they feel good about their WR core and we should expect no changes to that room in 2026