Fantasy Points Data

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Best/worst explosive run rates in 2025 [15+ yard runs, min 100 attempts] 1. De'Von Achane - 10.1% 2. Kenneth Walker - 8.1% 3. J.K. Dobbins - 7.8% 4. Breece Hall - 7.0% 5. Rhamondre Stevenson - 6.9% ... 47. Isiah Pacheco - 0.8% 48. Emanuel Wilson - 0.8% Last. Chuba Hubbard - 0%

I don't think it should be a controversial take, but I am taking Brock Bowers when he falls in the late 2nd or early 3rd round of Best Ball drafts over Trey McBride nearly every single time - I also like Bowers more than several of the WRs going in this range as well Per @FantasyPtsData, Bowers averaged 61.0 Receiving YPG (TE2), 7.2 Targets/G (TE2), and 16.4 FPG while playing through a PCL injury on an abysmal Raiders team last season (in games without a knee brace) Brock Bowers in 2026 - Little to no target competition whatsoever (Tre Tucker & Jalen Nailor) - Drastically improved coaching staff (Klint Kubiak + Andrew Janocko) - Significantly improved OL (Kolton Miller + Tyler Linderbaum) - If Kirk Cousins fails, Fernando Mendoza steps up Trey McBride in 2026 - Significant target competition in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson - Hired Mike LaFeur at HC (hasn't called plays since 2022) and Nathanial Hackett at OC - The addition of Jeremiyah Love and Tyle Allgeier means this team won't lead the league in pass rate over expectation again - If/when Jacoby Brissett fails, Gardner Minshew or Carson Beck are forced to step up

There appears to be a lot of Kyle Williams truthers, believers, and fans who remain optimistic about his future in New England (I fear the outlook for him is still murky at best) With Stefon Diggs gone, and Kayshon Boutte tied to a departure if the Patriots trade for AJ Brown, there could be 145 vacated targets up for grabs - Williams highest route share games in 2025 came when Diggs was reduced to a smaller role, or Boutte was out Williams earned a 63.8% route share in Weeks 9-11 + 17, but was unfortunately unproductive in a larger role (per @FantasyPtsData) - 2.8 Targets/G - 23.0 Receiving YPG - 1.02 YPRR - 4.8 FPG If the Brown trade happens, Williams will still be buried behind him, Romeo Doubs, and possibly even Mack Hollins, as receivers who all predominantly line up on the outside - Williams best chance for increased snaps would be to play from the slot more or leapfrog Hollins as more of an explosive #3 with an entirely different skillset

My biggest issue with Jonathan Taylor in 2026 is that I don't think the Colts are going to be anywhere as good as they were in Weeks 1-10 last season (8-2 record and 32.1 PPG) Taylor was, unfortunately, a very game script-dependent RB in 2025 (per @FantasyPtsData) - 31.5 FPG in wins vs. 12.4 FPG in losses - 27.3 FPG in Weeks 1-10 vs. 12.8 FPG in Weeks 11-18 - 86.9 of his 363.3 fantasy points (23.9%) came when the Colts were leading by 2+ scores in the second half Daniel Jones was injured or out in the majority of those losses, but he's coming off an Achilles tear, and the Colts are projected to win 8.5 games in 2026 (money seems to be on the under) - Taylor has an insanely high floor (and ceiling when the offense is clicking), but he's a tough selection with his 6.7 ADP in Best Ball contests right now

Highest WR TPRRs in the Red Zone [min. 25 routes run in 2025] Davante Adams (0.43) Rashee Rice (0.41) Amon-Ra St. Brown (0.38) Mike Evans (0.35) Drake London (0.34)

Highest TE TPRR in the Red Zone (min. 25 routes run) Colby Parkinson - 0.49 Brock Bowers - 0.37 Tucker Kraft* - 0.37 Dallas Goedert - 0.31 Dalton Kincaid - 0.31 *21 red zone targets vacated between Romeo Doubs (17) and Dontayvion Wicks (4)

I feel like a coward for consistently ranking Luther Burden ahead of Rome Odunze, when my gut is telling me Odunze is the better value in nearly every format right now - Burden and Loveland came on hot at the end of the season (when Odunze was injured), but Odunze's high-ceiling stretch in Weeks 1-4 was fantastic (per @FantasyPtsData) - 8.3 Targets/G (WR8) - 74.0 Receiving YPG (WR9) - 2.28 YPRR (WR15) - 19.9 FPG (WR3) Odunze's fall off after this stretch was disastrous, but that was largely due to his suffering a stress fracture in his foot as early as Week 7 or 8 - 0.452 Average Separation Score vs. Man Coverage in Weeks 1-7 (WR1) - 0.038 Average Separation Score vs. Man Coverage in Weeks 8-13 (WR70) DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus' departure vacates 144 targets, including 15 in the end zone - Odunze needs to work on his hands (9 drops last season), but I think he has the most upside out of any Bears receiver

btw Chase Brown had NINE first-read/designed targets in the red zone in 2025, the same as Alec Pierce. Only CMC and Jahmyr Gibbs had more at the RB position. (Source: @FantasyPtsData Suite)

Been a lot of talk about how Hurts doesn't throw to the middle of the field, and that the new GB offense will require that out of him.. not so sure about that

For all the talk about the Rams' multiple TE sets last year, they actually ranked 12th in % of pass plays with 3+ WRs on the field (per @FantasyPtsData).

Highest Explosive Run Rates when seeing 3.0+ yards before contact: Kenneth Walker - 25.0% De’Von Achane - 22.4% Derrick Henry - 20.4% Rhamondre Stevenson - 20.0% JK Dobbins - 20.0%

2024 and 2025 marked the only seasons in DeVonta Smith's career in which he ran more routes from the slot than out wide (per @FantasyPtsData) Slot Metrics 2024-2025: - 0.19 TPRR - 1.49 YPRR - 0.37 FP/RR Out Wide Metrics 2024-2025: - 0.28 TPRR - 3.03 YPRR - 0.59 FP/RR

Jaxon Smith-Njigba's fantasy points by year with... 3 or more WRs on the field 2025: 186.2 2024: 235.2 2 or fewer WRs on the field 2025: 174.7 2024: only 17.8 He ran 97 fewer total routes in 2025, but improved from the WR19 to the WR2 by FPG. (via @FantasyPtsData)

RB Positive Game Script Kings (Most PPR fantasy points when leading by 2+ scores in the second half): Jonathan Taylor - 86.9 Travis Etienne - 50.4 Zach Charbonnet - 45.4 Kyren Williams - 44.8 Chase Brown - 39.5

For every team's 2026 playcaller, this table breaks down their pass plays by the number of WRs and TEs on the field. (In the most recent spot where they called plays for close to a full season) Rookie playcallers are denoted with asterisks. Via @FantasyPtsData

QBs throwing first-read, checkdown, and deep vs expectation relative to opponents faced (last two seasons) Don’t like the idea of Russ to NYJ with the young pass catchers/tackles you’re trying to evaluate if Geno went down

I think there is a chance that Kyler Murray is one of the most undervalued players in fantasy football right now - I am not a fan of Murray personally, but this change of scenery could lead to a career resurgence Prior to 2025, Murray had FPG finishes of QB12 (18.4), QB10 (18.9), QB7 (19.0), QB5 (22.2) - Obviously, this has been trending in the wrong direction recently, but this Vikings team has the best supporting cast Murray has seen in the last 5 years - Before JJ McCarthy, Kevin O'Connell had an extremely strong track record of elevating QB play - Justin Jefferson + Jordan Addison + TJ Hockenson is the best receiving corps Murray has ever had (+ Jauan Jennings?) - The Vikings' OL, when healthy, should be measurably better than the Cardinals' OL (at least last season) - Supposedly, the Vikings were also Murray's favorite team growing up (what a fun little fact, huh) Murray also averaged 4.3 and 3.8 designed rush attempts per game in 2021 and 2022, before tearing his ACL - then averaged 3.5 in 2023, 2.2 in 2024, and 2.6 in 2025 (per @FantasyPtsData) The upside potential feels like it heavily outweighs the downside risk - QB17 Ranking in Best Ball on Underdog (105.7 ADP) - QB17 Ranking in Redraft on ESPN (142.7 ADP) - QB24 Ranking in Dynast on KTC (~2026 Mid 1st)

Hurts has been both willing to rip and overall effective when throwing these routes over the last four regular seasons (chart below). I noticed this a ton when charting Packers WRs last year, but some of their best plays offensively came when working these out-breakers (chart below), specifically when they'd use motion to create advantages. Some of Matthew Golden's best routes came on these plays in his Year 1 RP. The same with Wicks (now on the Eagles roster), who averaged 2.24 yards per route on out and flat routes. Christian Watson also averaged 2.69 yards per route. data from @FantasyPtsData:

Best YPRR with 2 or fewer WRs on the field in 2025 [min 50 routes] - Packers lost Doubs + Wicks, drafted no WRs, have Kraft + Musgrave, and leaned slightly heavier last year. Watson 🚀? - New Falcons coaches Kevin Stefanski/Tommy Rees threw from these sets 3rd-most. London 🚀?

@FantasyPtsData has proof that Odunze's heel injury likely caused a significant decline in his play as early as Week 8! 0.452 Average Separation Score vs. Man Coverage in Weeks 1-7 (WR1) 0.038 Average Separation Score vs. Man Coverage in Weeks 8-13 (WR70) If Odunze can remedy his issue with drops, he's in a great situation to be a massive ADP outperformer in Year 3