1/NDX is the signal.
Watching closely for successful retest and resumption.
English
ConvexEdge
1.1K posts
ConvexEdge
@ConvexEdgeX
Swing Trader. Market Cycles. I don't give financial advice. All I share on X is educational content.
Beigetreten Mayıs 2020
609 Folgt2K Follower
That said - I won’t short the strength. But I’ll short the break. First clean breakdown and I’m in.
English
$NDX
Day 20. Daily cycle failed at day 16 - a close, not a wick.
2–3 weeks to the next DCL. The theory says down, not up.
Blow-off tops don’t read the theory, though.
English
@AGratefulApe You don’t need all of them at once - but the more line up, the stronger the confluence.
English
Breakout above the trendline and Camel indicator confirming a DCL for $FIX
English
@mr_abundance_ $XMR looks really interesting to me from a purely technical standpoint.
ConvexEdge@ConvexEdgeX
When assessing altcoins, never forget the primary benchmark: strength against BTC. XMR/BTC is a good example right now: trendline breakout with a possible resumption. An altcoin can look strong in USD and still be bleeding against Bitcoin. The ratio tells the real story.
English
Most people will forget about my $XMR swing long over the next 1-2 years.
I won’t.
When XMR is trading at 800, I'll post the compound entry, the PnL, and quote tweet this post.
It’s already bookmarked. My RR is simple.
90% risk for 900%+ reward. That's 10:1 odds.
I trade mathematics.
It's going to be a long, bumpy road.
Many round trips, many drawdowns, and plenty of volatility along the way. But in the end, we'll find out whether it was worth it.
HODL.
Killa@KillaXBT
Most people will forget about my $BTC swing long over the next 1-2 years. I won’t. When BTC is trading at 126K, I'll post the exact entry, the PnL, and quote tweet this post. It’s already bookmarked. My RR is simple. 50% risk for 150% reward. That's 3:1 odds. I trade mathematics. It's going to be a long, bumpy road. Many round trips, many drawdowns, and plenty of volatility along the way. But in the end, we'll find out whether it was worth it. HODL.
English
@joh80574 Yes. Gold and silver miners will be a juicy option too.
English
@ConvexEdgeX I think this will be a very important long term investment. Hopefully we get good prices later this year.
English
We buy the GOLD 4-year cycle low later this year and ride it alongside the central banks.
Follow the plumbing, not the noise.
Bloomberg@business
Singapore plans to launch a gold-clearing system this year, with banks including JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank set to participate in the city-state’s push to become a hub in the global bullion market bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
English
$XMTR
DCL in the timing window with a trendline break.
Waiting for the Camel indicator to pick a low for added confidence.
English
@antjan12 Failed daily cycle and/or trendline breakdown unable to resume the uptrend (more than 2-3 days closing below TL with no resumption)
English
$ETH into key resistance.
My base case: rejection, fakeout at best.
English
Appreciate this. All fair, and I’m not making a fundamental call on discretionary vs staples. My interest is timing. We’re approaching the 4-year cycle low, and that’s precisely where it pays to study signals of potential tops rather than short the trend outright. Why the patience? Tops are less consistent than lows. With longs, the chart often suffices on its own. With shorts, confluence is everything, and a cycle inflection is where it starts to build
English
It's possible, but this is a high risk short imo. XLY has outperformed XLP more than 2x since 2020 (almost 200% to 90% approx).
Fundamentally, risk is heightened as a 'core fundamental' rather than disposable income that can be targeted. It's the same logic as betting on prolonged Oil price increases.
Take MSOS for example, one of the more discretionary sectors (Cannabis) vs. DBA (General Agriculture). Just a different perspective to consider🙏
English
Discretionary vs staples — XLY/XLP — forming a head and shoulders top.
Risk appetite is rolling over before the index confirms. This ratio is a leading indicator.
The market is putting down the iPhone and reaching for the toilet paper.
English
$SOXX
Breakout or fakeout ? 👀
Two charts, one story.
$SOXX testing its breakout.
Inverted $NVDA going bullish -> the leader topping out.
The ETF can’t break out while its engine rolls over. I fade it.
English
@ursusdadguy I don’t recommend specific brokers mate. I’m not in the USA.
English
@ConvexEdgeX How are you getting cotton exposure? Are you in the USA?
English
$COTTON confirmed a DCL right in the timing window, with a trendline break.
Could deliver an interesting swing move.
English
@CycleBull Pretty accurate I’d say.
ConvexEdge@ConvexEdgeX
Why I use the inverted $BTCUSD chart to find shorts. If cycles work on the normal chart to find longs — they work on the inverted chart to find shorts. Shorts are just longs flipped upside down. Most traders overcomplicate this. They look for complex setups, exotic indicators, macro triggers. I just flip the chart. Occam's razor: the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. In trading, the simplest setup is usually the most powerful one. Cycles are cycles — whether you flip the chart or not.
English
@ConvexEdgeX How accurate do you find using the cycle indicator when hunting for daily cycle highs on 1/BTCUSD?
English
1/BTCUSD is entering its DCL timing window.
Time to add to $BTC shorts is near.
ConvexEdge@ConvexEdgeX
Update: $BTC hedge longs. If a DCL confirms in the coming days, I expect a bounce lower than 80K.
English