Bill Donahue
6.8K posts
@assface_burner Odds are Trump declares victory tonight, insane rally tomorrow and then we are drawn back into the war by Monday.
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"You should have been stopped out of your $spx 6580p hedge. Buy $spx 6600p as protection for tonight and keep the 6500c for May" - hedge fund guy
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Based on net flows it still looks like we are setting up a bull trap with SPX once again in disagreement with SPY, only this morning premiums of any type on SPY are both extremely weak while we have strong put premium on SPX similar to yesterday morning. It's possible we get some fake pump news to tap 660, but right now it look like the gap and crap thesis I had at the close yesterday could be intact.
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@JC_ParetsX No one. Dear Lord man, every other spike has been a bull trap. Why is this different?
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So are we playing "Pop the Collar" on Tuesday?
Eat the rich.
Pin 6475.
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@kpak82 Something just caused a big spike up. Probably fade it though
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@cantucapital @trades_hayes Today was the perfect day to sell calls
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@trades_hayes yeah, I see no good structure for selling calls today. would have sold more puts but my trading capital is tied up in puts I rolled last week.
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If you sell options…
Be VERY cautious selling calls right now. This is the exact market you will lock yourself out of a recovery in
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Looks like S&P 500 will close either 6385 or 6400
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trump knows that if he gets the gamma going to the upside jpm collar kicks in and gives him another 1% intraday rally and then people will read that rally as “success is happening in iran”
OSINTdefender@sentdefender
Right before the market opens Monday, U.S. President Donald J. Trump makes a post on TruthSocial stating that the United States is in “serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran.” President Trump then adds, expanding on threats he has made before, if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately opened, “we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet touched.’ This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime's 47 year “Reign of Terror.”
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Those of you who talked smack to me when I said we would bounce today. Come forward.
Markets 👏 do 👏 not 👏 move 👏 in 👏 straight 👏 lines 👏
We should get this bounce continuing this week to 650 unless boots go on the ground. We have a shortened holiday week, so there should be lower volume and this will be an excellent opportunity to reset puts.
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$IGV - I was rooting for it to bottom...maybe it still will...
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Probably drop on Monday and Tuesday towards the 6300 6330 area.
Then up about roughly 2 weeks if not three to either the 200 dma or the 50 dma 6660 or 6770.
Big collapse afterwards from roughly Opex to early May
That will complete an ABC and then new aths should follow once the weekly pivot is recovered
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