Michael Bento

My take on the first Fed Chair Warsh presser: -He seems just as ambiguous as Powell, if anything slightly more so. - He emphasized more of a focus on inflation and price stability. This in my opinion is the most hawkish element, he hardly mentioned the maximum employment mandate, which means that he is with the committee in signaling a rate hike will be coming in the near future if inflation doesn't come back down on it's own soon. -Though he is pledging to be open to the Fed using more new data sources to inform monetary policy decisions, he kept using the phrase "make hard choices." Again this seems like a hawkish signal. -While he declines to issue direct forward guidance unlike Powell, the statement does drop breadcrumbs and he does in a way do so with his tone and intent. -He seems to be hinting that he is okay with the market exhibiting growing pains in response to the new direction of the Fed under him. -His excessive referencing he is going to create task forces for everything to me signals that he is going to use them as a shield to hide behind to protect himself from the blowback of the effects tightening will have on markets. Overall this was extremely hawkish and Warsh appears to be more of a hawk than Powell was. His focus on price stability and inflation while disregarding the employment mandate would seem to suggest we are going to see a more aggressive tightening bias in the near term that could disrupts markets with the goal of longer term price stability. Everyone who thought he would be another Mirin because Trump appointed him clearly disregarded his hawkish history on the Fed. I'd say we are in for a bumpy ride.

@MichaelPBento Your puts are ITM dude what are they talking about?

All the $META bulls are in my replies today screaming about how my puts are getting wrecked. Uhhh idk how to tell you this, that ain't a bullish looking candle and it's barely up on the day by a whisker.

My replies today demonstrate a LOT of you do not understand the difference between Disinflation and Deflation. Disinflation means the inflation number is still positive but lower than the previous month, which means inflation is still present just at a slower pace. Deflation is when the number is negative

When inflation is moving higher the data is accurate. When inflation falls and a R is in office the data is “fake”. Get it?

Don't worry... I won't lol

@delta0n3 Eh it’s work I’m doing everyday anyway so I might as well post it

Are you already regretting this commitment or will you use this almost like a trading journal? I feel like the market conditions warrant a close look right now but when we get to a clearly healthy bull market, this won’t be as necessary. Could be some time before that happens though.

My writeup on today's snoozefest

@market_sleuth This came from the failing game store cultists who have no idea that you can only get in trouble if you are licensed by FINRA. Another example of their lack of general intelligence.

Putting out the disclaimer “Not Financial Advice” on a trade alert or discord post will NOT protect you in a court of law. If you specifically recommended buying or selling a security, especially with timing or price targets, a disclaimer doesn’t change the nature of the communication. Publishing general market commentary or sharing what you bought / sold is treated differently from direct recommendations to buy or sell.

@Nascent_Market @Just_Numbers88 Tell us you don't understand index weighting without telling us

@Just_Numbers88 @MichaelPBento What does IBM have to do with consumer staples?

This has got to be the most fugazi CPI print I have ever seen. You expect me to believe that prices came DOWN 0.4% from May to June, yeah no.

I step away for a few hours and $SPY is in exactly the same place as when I left. What a snoozefest.

Another Burry position that worked out, that makes 2 or 3 since the last disclosure in which every person on here that started trading 5 minutes ago said he would get wrecked.

@kurtsaltrichter To be fair, September still has a hike priced in.

Aged well

I may as well go get lunch early because this price action is a total snooze.

@MichaelPBento The only thing that will squeeze here are your followers accounts. Bull market to continue, whether you like it or not. Keep shorting, we like your liquidity

If this is the TACO it is weak sauce.

@RobTrades139 Don't worry I'm sure it will squeeze any day now. Just keep buying shares of that failing game store.

@MichaelPBento I bet you are. Screen can take a lot. Your account cannot. Stop bullshitting your way through X

@BobLangFutures Never said it was

@MichaelPBento Fintwit should never be consensus

Last week everyone and their mother was saying that we are definitely hiking in July, I said that if, IF, we are to hike it will be in September, and behold, the expectations after CPI took out the July hike probability but held the September hike probability.

@RobTrades139 I’m up 33.2%. Go back to tin foil hat theories that your failing game store is going to moass

@MichaelPBento You tell us. Based on your opinion you are down a lot

@RobTrades139 And which ones would those be hmm?

@MichaelPBento Yours