Michael Bento

That was a very jam packed full of goodies presser. Here's my take: - Fed thinks inflation is about to surge due to the middle east but won't admit it outright and that tariffs will keep it sticky if they aren't rolled back. - This was actually a very hawkish meeting, though the dots are unch Powell said they were arbitrary and that they would have skipped the SEP this month if they could. -Powell and the rest of the committee genuinely read as not having an idea of just how far the oil supply shocks will go and he seemed visibly shaken by that uncertainty. Overall read: Powell all but hinted that inflation pain is incoming and it's probably going to be very bad. His pushback on the assertion and semantics around "stagflation" also tell me that combined with the rest of the reads that we are probably staring down the barrel of recession now cause by this incoming inflation spike creating enough demand destruction that will boomerang into deflation rather than disinflation. This meeting was a stark warning that is something isn't done about the middle east conflict and the tariffs immediately that the economy is in big trouble.

@market_sleuth What am I a mirage? x.com/michaelpbento/…

FedEx stock went up $32 AH on earnings today & hardly any talk of it. There’s stocks like that which get little fanfare because they’re not in the Ai space. It’s been a great hold for a long long long time. 💯

@DefineLegit @Basssem666 It would also run directly into the trend line resistance of the downtrend as well as the 10DMA. These are the confluences I look for.

@MichaelPBento @Basssem666 That “hard ceiling “ would fill the two bear gaps created above us last one at 676, this would require a strong bounce and I just don’t see it tbh.

Lot of you are coming at me for converting to an overnight bull. Tomorrow you'll come at me when I sell the calls and pile into puts.

@grok @JP_Money_95630 @Michaelberridg3 @JohnLoc18

Yes, option pricing for SPY/QQQ already builds in the expected ex-div drop via dividend yield (or discrete div) in models like Black-Scholes. Before 3/20, calls are priced slightly cheaper & puts richer to reflect the ~$2 drop at open. On ex-date pre-market, underlying opens lower—no manual option contract adjustment for cash divs. Premiums just recalculate off the new spot price + Greeks. No "half value" loss; it's all anticipated. See Investopedia on divs & options for details.

$SPY IMPORTANT ⚠️⚠️ Tonight $SPY will pay dividend out, options will lose half value (especially short term dates). Please sell all and wait for cheaper premium tomorrow to re-enter.

$SPY dividend has been paid, cheap premium tomorrow 👍

@arturp78 If it goes to 605 tomorrow you know that produces a morning star pattern right?

@MichaelPBento This is one day chart … if it will go up no higher than 605 and again down? Looks like …

I was told we wouldn't bounce? QQQ 610C +10.35% SPY 670C +5.18%

@leadlagreport You're going to be on Cramer?

Going to be live on CNBC in a little over an hour.

@Mr_Derivatives Triple Witching expiration is going to break that pattern most likely.

$SPX Last 3 Fridays have been nasty for stocks. -.61% -1.33% (as low as -1.75%) -.43% (as low as -1.00%) Are we due for another beat down? Or we due for a green day?

@Michaelberridg3 @JohnLoc18 Wrong. The price change already happened this week. investopedia.com/articles/activ…

@MichaelPBento @JohnLoc18 That’s not correct

@wannabetrader25 @deep_seek_truth +2.6% is literally impossible tomorrow

@MichaelPBento @deep_seek_truth 677 tomorrow would be crazy

Choose your fighter 200DMA Edition: SMA 200 we closed under. EMA 200 we closed above. I'm inclined to favor the EMA this time due to the positive oil news as well as the VIX. The VIX closed back under the 10DMA after spending the morning above and closing the last 2 days under. Before you come at me about VIX TA, the front month VIX futures which ARE TRADED and you can do TA on had the same pattern of closures under the 10DMA. Additionally the VIX closed yesterday +12.16% which means there is an 85% probability of an up day on SPY within the next 2 trading sessions and today ended down which leave tomorrow. Tomorrow will probably see typical OpEx shenanigans and with max pain for tomorrow's expiration at 677 I would expect us to get pretty close unless something substantial happens overnight to spook markets.

@deep_seek_truth Because it just is?

@MichaelPBento Why is max pain at 677?

@MichaelPBento down first, then down again.

@cre8value_ Who says I'm not waiting until the close tomorrow?

@MichaelPBento There’s always been a pump at around an hour before close at Opex so I wouldn’t do puts for tomorrow

@Basssem666 671 is my first scale in trigger, but I can see a hard ceiling as far up as 677.

@MichaelPBento 670-675 then down again

@zambo218 If you're an experienced trader, this is the environment where you make your next 5 years in a matter of months.

@MichaelPBento Overall trend is down but we ride the waves in between to make some dough 🤘

@jeffgoldsmith23 Most of these kids would never survive a first year on the floor at a major IB.

If you’re not sitting at your computer screens all day everyday, then this isn’t your profession. Traders trade, we take what the market gives us. Buy an index fund and be the best at whatever your actual job is. Bet on sports if you need the juice. Coming at people like Michael or myself makes us laugh. If you want a seat at the big boy table, become dedicated.

@MichaelPBento Don’t hate the player, hate the game.

@Tyberious2100 I'll never start a discord or subscription because I make more than enough money trading. I'm just here to to share my ideas.

@MichaelPBento It resonates! Cheers!! You need to start a discord or subscription.

@keziah_86 I'll be starting to scale into a large put position unless we break out above the downtrend (unlikely). Won't have the full position on though until mid next week likely. I never jump in with both feet when opening a large position.

@MichaelPBento Wouldn’t it make more sense to wait until early next week? SPY might still push up a bit first.