Michael Bento

My take away from Powell's last presser are: - He is very obviously concerned about the threat to Fed independence from the current administration. He gave lame excuses otherwise as to why he was staying on, but the subtext was obvious. - There is a bias shift taking place on the FOMC that Warsh won't be able to overcome. The committee is shifting toward considering hikes rather than cuts so as of this meeting it would be fair to say the bias has now left easing and is squarely neutral. Powell dropped clues that if Hormuz stays closed for much longer than hikes will be on the way. - The Fed is concerned about stagflation. He made a purpose to multiple times mention the inflationary effects of rising oil and the tariffs. He also made a purpose of highlighting specifically multiple times that gas prices going up reduces available disposable income and as a result he said it WILL impact GDP. Anyone calling this meeting/presser a "nothingburger" has no idea what they are talking about or aren't adept at understanding Fedspeak. This was a warning shot to Trump and Warsh that the committee will not be cutting any time soon and they will resist any attempts of outside entities to force cuts or anything else that threatens Fed independence. Rates are staying higher for longer.

@1chopsticks Well it's a scam, he needs an amount that people forget about and don't notice as a recurring charge on their bank statements.

@MichaelPBento if your TA is only worth $14/mo, then you have little faith in your TA

Grifters gonna grift. These snake oil salesmen are symptoms commonly found in late cycle environments. They take advantage of all the tourists and inexperienced traders who just got into the market because of the euphoric late cycle price action and leech money off them via subscriptions on things that you could learn to do yourself for free.

@kogadama Don't get too excited, it probably reverses into close

@MichaelPBento Don’t threaten me with a good time, I’ve had 7450c for Tuesday since this morning

Given the sheer amount of Put OI expiring today I would actually not be surprised to see a bit of buying pressure materialize after 2PM as dealers close out their hedges.

@gofun23333 My guess is Monday is flat.

@MichaelPBento Any predictions theu vixperation? Think we tag $748 for the gap fill before a drawdown? Why such a big gap between $710 put wall and $750 call wall?

SPY 0dte gex profile we can see that 739 and 740 put gex are the strong magnets today. All the call gex that there was for today's expiration has been vaporized. When we go out to All Expiries combined it is clear the picture of market price action going forward has shifted. What yesterday was overwhelmingly call heavy with 745, 747, 750, and 755 all having a net gex > 1BLN, today there is no level with net calls > 1BLN. Put GEX has built up significantly and there is virtually an even split between puts and calls. That rally that everyone insisted was unstoppable appears to have hit a wall.

@colin_gladman My comments are oddly silent today. A lot of humble pie to be had today.

This is type of day where normally I would go back to lots of comments, but since there are so many, just gonna say… GG’s and thank you 🤝

Here is the new Fed Hawk/Dove table as of today.

@kootuandrice I'd hate to break it to you, but best case scenario we are looking at recession by 2027.

@MichaelPBento The shorter dated option gamblers will never learn. We're looking at a market correction of 15-20% after Warsh is in by October. That is the play. Then a new bull market into 2028/2029. That's when I'll go heavy on tech and semis. Going in right now is playing with fire.

Every time we get a green 15m candle I see a deluge of “MARKET IS ABOUT TO GO GREEN” posts, only to get smacked down again. No, it isn’t. SPY is saying beneath its 21EMA on the 15m today, just like on green days it maintains above it. We are pinning to 739-740 for OpEx, take a chill pill and cut your losses permabull 0dte gamblers.

@saltydocEM It’s a scam

@MichaelPBento Are these premade? Can get AI to post like a beast on here.

EXACTLY. It’s really funny how someone who’s so busy “golfing” has time to make 10 to 20 TA posts for his subscribers (victims) an hour.

@Hedgeye @JP_Money_95630

Today, Jerome Powell is passing the chair’s baton to Kevin Warsh at the Federal Reserve. Warsh is walking into a mess.

NVDA most likely pins into earnings around the 230-235 range. If it sells off more from here into earnings then the risk is it spikes post earnings.

@biancoresearch If he delivers a cut under current conditions then we are in for a very destructive inflation spike.

Dear Kevin Warsh Later today, you will be sworn in as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Congratulations. You got the job by convincing the President you share his vision that the Fed needs to cut rates. The problem is that today, on your first day as Chairman, the market is pricing in a 64% probability that rates will HIKE before the end of the year. Good luck!

@Jake__Wujastyk That wasn’t a denial

@MichaelPBento Then unfollow me and move on lmao

A 5% market pullback by next week would be one of the healthier things that could happen here.

The VIX is attempting to break out of its falling wedge. Still being pinned though as it’s come in quite a bit despite still being +6.14% on the day. Just imagine what’s going to happen when we get through VIXperation on Tuesday and it no longer has that anchoring effect.

@Jake__Wujastyk Oh believe me I do. What I see is you attempting to take both sides to snooker in more subscribers

@MichaelPBento Lmao, and look at every single one of those charts are green…. Understand the context of my posts before commenting

@Basssem666 @market_sleuth Too many on the sideline? My guy, margin debt is at extreme highs, everyone is all in.

@MichaelPBento @market_sleuth Too many on the sidelines still is what I’m thinking. If the 20 dma can’t be reclaimed then yeah it’s done.

$SPY Price gapped below the 5 dma and went to 737 before bouncing off the Fibonacci support to reclaim it again. If we close below the 5 dma I think 736-732 will be tested. If it breaks I’ll get the move to the 20 dma that I’m waiting for. If price closes above the 5 dma then the melt up will likely continue and spy will go to 750+. I think we’ll get a pull back to the 20 dma, then make a top somewhere around 785-800 before correcting 15-20% or more.