Deepak Chhabria
1.2K posts

Deepak Chhabria
@DeepakAxiom
CEO & Director, Financial Navigator at Axiom Financial Services Pvt. Ltd, Fitness Freak, Keen observer, always open to learning


India Chased Multibagger Dreams; Real Economy Paid the Price 1. Economic Survey flagged dangers of "over-financialization" 2. 82% youth invest on finfluencer tips (CFA Report) 3. Industry Capex down 26% YoY; Family Offices ranked 3rd globally in non-core deal volume INSIGHTS: Economic Survey 2024-25: Warning Drowned in Market Euphoria a. Survey’s Chapter 2 Title itself warned: “The Cart Is Running Before the Horse” (“Cart” is the financial markets; “Horse” is the real economy.) b. Tabled in Parliament 14 months ago (31 Jan, 2025), the Survey stated: “Uncontrolled financial sector growth comes with a cost to the real economy. India should ensure a gradual and orderly development of its financial markets.” c. “When the economy reaches a state of over-finance, the financial sector competes with the real sector for resources (such as skilled labour and capital investments).” d. “Financial engineering creates complex products whose risks are not known to the average consumer. These products are designed in a way that lenders have no “skin in the game” (no risk)." e. “Critical Risk”: “Dominance of financial markets and asset price considerations may overly influence public policy, including regulatory policy.” It means, the whole system promotes stock market as the nation’s growth engine, while the “horse” (real economy) gets left behind. Private Sector Focus: Promoter Selling, IPOs (OFS), Rise of Family Offices a. Economic Survey 2025-26 (29 Jan, 2026): “Indian private sector is historically risk-averse, comfortable with technology import & licensing, and has failed to step up the primary engine of R&D.” b. “In absence of innovation, India risks remaining a “service provider” to the developed world, vulnerable to technology denials and supply chain shocks." c. Private Sector Capex: Despite record corporate profits, Capex in FY26 was projected to dip 26% YoY (₹6.56T in FY25 to ₹4.89T in FY26). Where is the promoter interest? (Read next point.) d. PwC Report (Dec 2025): Family Offices in India are rapidly moving into investments outside their core businesses. NexGen of India’s family-controlled empires is “taking a leaf” from global private equity and VC playbook. e. Indian Family Offices have grown from 45 in 2018 to 300 in 2024 (during years of market boom). Indian Family Offices now rank third globally in annual VC deal volume, behind only the US and the UK. f. India added 3,000+ new UHNIs (ultra-high net worth individuals) in just one year (thanks to the market boom), creating a deeper pool of “sophisticated investors” outside their core businesses.” (Hurun Wealth Report) g. Chief Economic Advisor Nageswaran (Nov 25, 2025): “IPOs in India have become exit vehicles for early investors, rather than means of capital investing.” In Apr-Sept 2025 quarter, 55 Indian IPOs raised ₹65K crores. Most of it was OFS. (Buyers were Indian mutual funds and retail.) Indian Youth: YOLO Trading a. The Wall Street Journal recently used a phrase: “You Only Live Once” (YOLO trading). It is leading young people to treat markets like a casino. They haven’t seen that stocks also go down. b. India’s youth have been losing their family savings in F&O trading and chasing momentum stocks. SEBI Survey 2025 showed that 91% traders lost money in F&O. 76% of these participants were “Low Income” traders (annual income below ₹5 lakh). The system did not educate them, but encouraged them with non-stop T20 World Cup ads featuring celebrities. c. CFA Institute Survey (Mar 2025) showed India has 3.5 million social media “finfluencers” (financial influencrs). Over 82% of the followers of these finfluencers made investments based on their advice. d. Average finfluencer age is 31 years, with 60% under 29. Only 2% are SEBI-registered. 59% have commercial partnerships or sponsorships (vested interest). 63% fail to disclose these financial affiliations. 91% are on YouTube; 64% on Instagram; 61% on Facebook. (SEBI Investor Report) e. CMIE Data: Declining Labour Force Participation Rate (below 40%) indicates many youth have dropped out of employment activity. They are not even actively looking for jobs (LFPR means that). One must also remember trading activity occurs between 9:15 am and 3:30 pm on weekdays, which are peak hours for work, apprenticeship, and vocational colleges. f. Nithin Kamath (Zerodha) in 2024: “A whole generation of people were sitting on the fence and thinking whether they should trade or not trade. They have all jumped in.” ENDPIECE: Lottery-ization of India “How many of you want to be rich?” Hundreds of hands shoot up at a packed conference hall in Bengaluru. The attendees are responding to Chandan Taparia, head of derivatives research at Motilal Oswal. “Friends, if you follow this (pointing to technical charts on the screen), trust me, you won’t lose.” He continues: If you win, you can rule the world.” Hoping to “rule the world,” Anand, a 23-year old who travelled 300 miles to attend the Bengaluru conference, said: “I’m a poor person. But I have a big dream for my life.” – Quoting from Financial Times (July 18, 2024) @arabicatrader




Ahmedabad is not a sporting city, it never has been. That’s why every time there’s a final played there, more than 50% crowd is from outside the city. There’s no sporting culture, vibe. Just making the largest stadium might bring you gate revenues but it doesn’t bring you support or success for India.




हमारे संयुक्त रात्रिभोज से पहले, मैंने अपने मित्र प्रधानमंत्री मोदी को पारंपरिक भारतीय परिधान पहनकर चौंका दिया। 🇮🇱🇮🇳 @narendramodi


India and the 27-nation European Union first started negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement in June 2007. 16 rounds of negotiations took place but were suspended in May 2013 because of lack of agreement on many important issues. Talks on an FTA remained suspended till June 2022 when they were resumed. This hugely-hyped FTA is the biggest trade opening India has given to any trade partner (tariff reduction or relief on over 96% of EU exports to India) and it is expected to double India's imports from the EU. Its impact on India's trade deficit will have to be monitored closely. The Modi Government’s failure to secure an exemption for India’s aluminium and steel-makers from the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is one of @INCIndia’s key concerns regarding the FTA. India’s aluminium and steel exports to the EU have already fallen from $7 billion to $5 billion and are only expected to fall further beginning this year due to the enforcement of the CBAM since January 1, 2026. Over time, CBAM will also expand to include other categories of India’s industrial exports and can effectively nullify any gains India secures from the FTA. There are also concerns about the EU's strict health and product safety rules, which will continue to be in force over Indian exports even after the FTA. This can easily become a non-tariff trade barrier, and the EU has been accused of the same by other trade partners. Questions over Intellectual Property (IP) rights for our pharmaceutical sector are also unanswered. The EU has also claimed privileged access to Indian services market in key sectors like financial services and maritime transport - exceeding India’s commitments with any other trading partner, including the UK and Australia. The inclusion of automobiles in the FTA is also a concern. The Modi Government opened up India’s automobile sector for the first time ever in its FTA with the UK, and the FTA with the EU only opens up further risk for domestic automobile manufacturers. At a time when Electrical Vehicles (EV) are emerging as one of the most critical technologies of the 21st century, great care will have to be taken to ensure that India’s EV industry is not vanquished. Of course, the final concern is about India’s largest export to the EU - refined fuels. A large portion of this fuel is sourced from Russia, and there needs to be clarity on the future of these trade routes amidst pressure from Washington DC.

BIG BREAKING: America says India got a great trade deal with the EU "India has come out on top in this deal. They get more market access and immigration to Europe. India is going to have a heyday with this," says US Trade Rep Greer

Arrogant people were saying we missed the bus Now see who’s caught the bus, who’s got the FIRST mover advantage with the “mother of all deals” 🔥🔥 EU !! This “mother of all deals” IMPACTS - ✅1/3rd of global trade ✅1/4th of global GDP ✅Allows India access to 27 nations of EU ✅> 99 % of Indian exports to EU now duty-free as 9425 tariff lines have been crushed 🔥🔥 ✅Brings together No.2 & No. 4 economies in the world together ✅Helps MSMEs, our main job creators with financial & technical know-how to make them compliant to environment laws ( sustainable development) ✅Co-operation in upcoming fields like AI, clean tech & semiconductors ✅Student security with guaranteed post-study visa framework Main Desh nahin jhookne doonga; main desh nahin rukne doonga ✊✊ Modiji makes HISTORY 🔥🔥 #IndiaEUTradeDeal











