Andrea De Polis

The review cites my paper, with @LeonardoMelosi and Ivan Petrella, as providing a theoretical justification to risk-adjusted predictive assessments. We show that this approach can contribute to the risk management approach to monetary policy in real-time. ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps…

📢 🥁 Our VoxEU column is now out!

RIP Chris Sims. I was enormously influenced by Chris. My own, perhaps idiosyncratic take: His main contribution came at a time when macroeconomists had constructed the first wave of big macroeconometric models. They were constructed piece by piece, a consumption block, an investment block, and so on. Each piece looked reasonable, but when assembled together, the implied macro dynamics were all wrong. What Chris did was to turn things around, namely argue that one had to start from the actual macro dynamics, the so called VARs, and show how, with minimal identification conditions (leading to "structural" VARs), they could be used to suggest the dynamic effects of various shocks, dynamics that the structural models had to replicate. To say that his approach was influential would be to understate its influence. Today, a model that did not fit the VAR evidence, would be simply dismissed.

Super paper from my good friend @Gaudio_FS! Well done

Parla pure di Palestina e di cosa significa quello che accade lì per tante persone nelle periferie degli imperi. È un fumetto complicato quindi dura 37 pagine, se volete litigà ve prego almeno leggetevele tutte. I colori sono di Alberto Madrigal internazionale.it/magazine/zeroc…

The review cites my paper, with @LeonardoMelosi and Ivan Petrella, as providing a theoretical justification to risk-adjusted predictive assessments. We show that this approach can contribute to the risk management approach to monetary policy in real-time. ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps…

The latest monetary policy strategy assessment of the ECB highlights the importance of considering the risks surrounding baseline projections for policy making. ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops…

New ECB working paper with Ivan and @LeonardoMelosi!

📚 Dive into this enlightening work! The paper titled **The taming of the skew: asymmetric inflation risk and monetary policy** by Andrea De Polis, Leonardo Melosi, Ivan Petrella explores how inflation risks change over time! (link below) 🧵1/3

🧵 New Working Paper by A.Allayioti, L. Górnicka, S.Holton and C. Martínez Hernández: "Monetary policy pass-through to consumer prices: evidence from granular price data" ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps… 1/5

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP19760 The Taming of the Skew: Asymmetric #Inflation Risk and Monetary Policy @Depomtx, @LeonardoMelosi, Ivan Petrella @CollegioCA @unito ow.ly/uHOS50UqAo4 #CEPR_MG #EconTwitter

Some great presentations at the @ESCoEorg PhD and Early Career workshop @kingsbschool This is @Depomtx talking about mixed frequency models for income distribution Nice to be back seeing some old colleagues 😄

Surging inflation in 2021 and 2022 came with strong divergences across euro area countries, largely due to the role of energy and food prices. Read the #EconomicBulletin to find out how inflation differentials evolved more recently ecb.europa.eu/press/economic…

Finally out on the latest issue of JBES. Modeling and Forecasting Macroeconomic Downside Risk, joint with Davide Delle Monache (Bank of Italy) and Ivan Petrella (Warwick). Sample codes here: andreadepolis.github.io tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…

This afternoon @Depomtx is presenting some of our latest @ESCoEorg research at #EM2024 on modelling the income distribution to help us understand the effect of economic shocks on resilience. Full abstract virtual.oxfordabstracts.com/#/event/5114/s…

A new version of our paper on momentum crashes is now out as CEPR Discussion Paper

New Working Paper by A. Allayioti & F. Venditti: “The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices” ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps…

One therefore must approach any 2024 forecast with humility. Still, the basic task is the same: start with a baseline, an upside, and a downside scenario, and then assign time-varying probabilities to each. project-syndicate.org/commentary/glo…

Bond yields signal the end of the new normal ft.com/content/255623… via @ft

La NADEF delinea un quadro preoccupante per l'andamento del debito pubblico. Difficilmente l'Italia riuscirà a soddisfare i nuovi criteri del Patto di stabilità e crescita. Il commento di @TortugaThink lavoce.info/archives/10256…

The New York Times or the Economist (almost) always have clear and compelling charts. Use them as a template or a reference points. If you want your paper to be read and cited, you should strive for the highest possible level of craftsmanship in your charts.