Digits Capital

It's a time to reflect on what went well this year and what did not so that we can sharpen the tools we use going forward, and stay away from the things that flopped With the liquidation cascade of 10/10 it is very clear that even the smallest amount of leveraged portfolio opens you up to risk of ruin. Therefor, perps should only be used in rare occasions to fulfil a thesis when it is cheaper and easier to enter the position through perps and not spot. The position should be treated as spot so leverage is never used. There is little or no edge in leverage trading BTC and ETH unless a large narrative comes up. Examples of these narratives are Trump winning the presidential election, and front running the Tom Lee ETH DAT purchases. LTF on BTC and ETH and most majors should be ignored as they are heavily manipulated by market makers and whales in order to liquidate traders, therefor HTF and spot is king if BTC exposure is desired. HTF breakouts are far and few between on majors, last cycles of ripping through resistance does not occur anymore. ATH resistance should always be respected and if long into it should absolutely be taking off 50%+ of the position and strongly consider closing alts. New hyped launches played well, but only for week one. Coins that ran hard for the first week of opening should be faded after that first week. Consolidation is distribution, there is no dip, it is going to zero after the first week. New launches and stealth launches are still the best risk reward we have, if we are early. You need to be in on day 1, it needs to be a fresh coin, hard to buy, and have some figurehead like Trump or CZ attached. This is where most of the gains are made. Almost never buy the dip and always sell momentum exhaustion, on every coin. Where I made most of our money this year: Most of our money was made trading new hyped coins and exiting into the momentum. TRUMP, ASTER, DOGE, XPL, Most losses can be attributed to leverage trading BTC ETH or other majors + options So what's the plan? I have always recognized holding spot BTC when it gets cheap to be THE play. Is it time to buy BTC? Anywhere between 60-100K is a good buy on BTC IMO. If we are not done with the cycle, and liquidity comes back in 2026, then BTC will start to outperform. Fundamentally BTC is entrenched in the financial system now with ETFs and being added to retirement accounts. Companies want to build on the blockchain, they want to offer crypto, banks want our money. So we don't have to worry anymore about "will crypto survive" With the correct time horizon BTC is a good buy and hold. I have always wanted to buy it in bear markets and hold through the next cycle, but I never felt like I had enough money for that to matter. I still want to be exposed to crypto so I want to own BTC, it is simple. Beyond that the biggest income generator was new launches and catching them early. You don't need a lot of funds to make this work. We bet 300K on DOGE and made 2M, 500K on TRUMP and made 5M, 500K on ASTER made 5M, 3M on XPL made 2M and this is all within the last 365 days. So the plan is and will remain spot BTC, with 500K-2M in USDT on the side waiting for the next new launch or hot thing that has the potential to run for a week (and then sell). Macro should get better in 2026, more OG whales and miner supply has been distributed throughout all of 2025, and BTC is here to stay. Don't leave, find out what worked for you, what didn't work, and improve. There is no other place that offers this type of information asymmetry and reward to risk.

As we analyzed before, gold and silver have already topped. At today’s market open, capital has already started rotating into crypto. Even with equities selling off after the open, crypto kept pushing higher. Inflows could continue and upside momentum could accelerate triggering a short squeeze without pullback.

Lot of fud on $LIT and mostly true. Doesnt really matter, think it goes up in H1 so I bought spot.

Fighting the ₿ears

@FrankAFetter @0xelonmoney @glassnode Boomers are not allowed to lose

What if the bitcoin ETF aggregate cost basis the new bear market floor?

Recent Layoff Announcements: 1. US Government: 307,000 employees 2. UPS: 48,000 employees 3. Amazon: Up to 30,000 employees 4. Intel: 24,000 employees 5. Nestle: 16,000 employees 6. Verizon: 15,000 employees 7. Accenture: 11,000 employees 8. Ford: 11,000 employees 9. Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees 10. Microsoft: 7,000 employees 11. PwC: 5,600 employees 12. Salesforce: 4,000 employees 13. IBM: 2,700 employees 14. American Airlines: 2,700 employees 15. Paramount: 2,000 employees 16. Target: 1,800 employees 17. General Motors: 1,500 employees 18. Applied Materials: 1,444 employees 19. Kroger: 1,000 employees 20. Meta: 600 employees Where will all these people go?

@crypto_condom @0xngmi I often think about declining birth rates and what that does to peoples store of value

@0xngmi Yeah, I saw that. The problem is that housing value is in a decline as well making things even worse since people DO use it as their primary SOV.

JFC

@inversebrah So glad he had this experience

😭

@hooeem brrrrrooooooooooooooooooo

I have had a lot of questions about my $5 x subscription so I want to answer them here: “Why do you need $5 a month from us when you’ve been in crypto since 2021?” lmao, I completely get that point, here’s the truth, I don’t want to mix my investments with life. I want an extra income stream to continue paying the bills without needing to touch my investments. I know I’m providing a high quality service that’s worth way more than $5 a month so I don’t feel bad in anyway. The information I’m sharing there isn’t information I want to share for free because I’m providing support and advice from my years of experience on X on how to harness attention and build an audience through tips, hacks, support, and advice. “What do you even get for $5 anyway?” Tips, hacks, support, and advice. That’s a bit vague isn’t it? Let’s break it down: > A premium article on hooks Yes, a 1000+ word essay on writing hooks, the formulas to use, human psychology, and tonnes of examples to utilise. I took all the best advice from my favourite copywriters, creators, and viral posts to distil it into one article, I believe this alone is worth $5 but there’s more… Oh did I also mention there’s a prompt in here you can use to get inspiration from AI? Well… > 1-1 support Once you join, I’ll always prioritise your DMs. If you want support with your profile or I feel like you need it, I will tell you and we’ll get your landing page FIXED. > Image creation (soon) I’m currently putting together the formula for what increases click through rate on other image heavy social media’s because X is becoming more multimedia day by day. Once I’ve done that I’ll combine all the advice into an article for you alongside a prompt you can use with top image generating LLMs to create killer images for your brand. > Content ideas We all get stuck sometimes, I’ll help get ideas flowing and I’ll also provide an article on how to do this yourself so you’re never in a rot. > My vocal support I will support any piece of content you’ve put a lot of work in, I’ll follow you as well, so if you’re into InfoFi as well then this will help, I mean, harnessing attention goes hand in hand with this so… > Community support If you’re putting your 5 bucks down it means you’re serious about growing, as a community when we’re big enough (we’re just starting so we’re not quite big enough yet) we can support each-others high quality work and help eachother in the algorithm. I’ll create a list and we’ll be here to support eachother. The more of us experimenting the more we’ll quickly find out what’s popping in the algorithm and what isn’t, sharing ideas, and pushing eachothers content. “Why do you think you’re an expert?” Well, I’ve always managed to grind on X, find what the algorithm favours when it changes, and double down on it with discipline and relentless consistency. This has led to me having well over 100 million impressions in the last 3 years alongside growing from less than 100 followers to 144 thousand followers. I’m the proof. “Should I join now or later?” Yes you should join now if you’re serious about growing, the value is already here and it’s only going to get better.

@rossobianchi_ lol

STRK (the stock not the shitchain) pays 10% APR at $80 and has a 25% arb to $100 if BTC survives 🫡

@WIP_DEFI Dividend is nice, I expect it to bid back up to $100

@DigitsCapital These things were sold when $MSTR had a big mNAV multiple. I wouldn't expect people to bid it up to $100 now it has become clear that those mNAV multiples were absolutely crazy from a fundamental perspective.

@WIP_DEFI The guidance is $100 at 8% APR, when BTC is healthy STRK finds its $100 guidance price. Any price lower than $100 and the dividend starts increasing, 10% on $80 etc. So the company has marked $100 at fair value and I would agree

@DigitsCapital I don't understand the arb. It is convertible into 0.1 share of $MSTR, currently worth $17.5. Bitcoin does not only have to survive but also go up. It's based on yield and upside speculation, but I don't see a hard arbing mechanism in place.

💥 SAYLOR ON POTENTIAL LIQUIDATION: "As long as Bitcoin goes up 1.25% a year, we can pay the dividend forever." "If Bitcoin stops going up, we've got 80 years to figure out what we're going to do about that." I think they'll be alright 😅

@hooeem Just what a europooor would say

What I hate about the new update to X that shows your location isn’t even the doxxing. It’s the racism that exists here. I’ve seen multiple posts trolling people that are from Africa & Asia, I mean… really??? Lest we forget those that stood beside our ancestors and fought the world war with us.

@hooeem Wtf is 5K going to do bro

If you could DCA into 3 coins every month with $5000 what coins would you choose?

following up on this: i also feel like if cz didn't exist (10/10 didn't happen), we'd still be in a dump (given the pullback on equities), but we'd be either fighting to hold onto 100k, or maybe modestly wicking below weekly support at 98.5k. imagine that. assuming stocks recover and risk-on continues and we end up way higher later, this entire episode in hindsight is like "remember when a bunch of toxic flows/forced selling with awful execution dumped us like 20k lower than we should've gone?" and gets looked at as a generational mid-cycle opportunity

@Cryptopathic Nah

in hindsight, maybe investing all of our money into an industry where no one can agree on how to value anything was a mistake

It will take over 50%+ pump for BTC to ATH Does that happen in the next 3-4 years? I am betting on spot BTC to outperform "long term"