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The past week has been quite eventful in the geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape around Colonial Coal $CAD.V $CCARF. And while many shareholders don’t feel the tension due to lack of updates from management (of obvious reasons), I wanted to summarize what we’ve seen the past week.
1) David Eby’s India trade mission – mining front and center
BC Premier David Eby was leading a trade mission to India with a clear focus on mining, critical minerals and energy. Multiple Canadian and Indian outlets have confirmed that mining projects are among the primary commercial outcomes being discussed, with Indian SOEs and private groups evaluating participation in 20+ Canadian resource projects.
Importantly, Eby’s role has explicitly been framed as a “matchmaker” between Indian capital and BC assets - including providing political assurance around permitting, First Nations engagement, infrastructure support and path-to-production (the latter we know from previously).
That matters for Colonial. Eby and his administration are already known (publicly) to have been involved in discussions around how a foreign buyer could navigate BC permitting and move a large met-coal project forward. In short: the province is actively lowering execution risk for an Indian buyer which is needed in advance of a multi-billion dollar investment.
2) Mark Carney’s China mission – critical minerals, energy & supply chains
At the same time, Prime Minister Mark Carney was in China - the first Canadian PM visit in more than a decade - with the agenda squarely focused on critical minerals, energy security, trade frameworks and supply-chain resilience.
This is not symbolic diplomacy. It signals a pragmatic reset with China on resource cooperation. Carney is well aware of Colonial’s situation and the strategic value of long-life Canadian metallurgical coal assets in a world where China remains structurally short of premium coking coal. Coal is Canada’s biggest export to China.
Taken together: Canada is simultaneously opening political lanes with India and China - the two most logical SoE buyers for $CAD.V.
3) Met coal prices are screaming higher
Coking coal futures have surged in early January, with long-term prices now north of ~$250/t, driven by Australian weather disruptions and persistently strong steel demand in Asia.
Historically, developed, non-producing met-coal assets transact around ~1% of long-term coal prices. At $250/t, that implies ~$2.5/t in-ground benchmarks - before scarcity premiums for tier-1, long-life assets in safe jurisdictions like Canada.
4) Share price action – technical reset, not thesis break
Last Friday, Colonial closed at $3.08 on ~1.2m shares, showing clear institutional-style accumulation. I must admit, I thought we would see continuation this week. However, this week’s pullback coincided with Rosseau Asset Management’s AMR, which disclosed sales of ~4.5m shares over the past five quarters.
Market chatter (CEO.ca) suggests this selling was driven by portfolio concentration constraints when SolGold was depressed - not a change in Rosseau’s view on Colonial’s fundamentals. With SolGold now sold and Rosseau exiting, that overhang appears largely resolved. Notably, there’s no indication Rosseau has been a seller since the November MCR.
Technically, the stock based at ~$2.58 on Thursday and rebounded to ~$2.79 Friday, on solid volume (>400k/day across exchanges). That looks like digestion after a sharp run, not distribution.
Bottom line, what we’ve seen the past past week is:
- Eby in India explicitly matchmaking mining capital
- Carney in China resetting trade ties
- Met coal prices have re-rated sharply higher
- Rosseau’s mental overhang on retail holders appears to be clearing
- The stock has held key technical levels on strong volume
Now we need to see the improved deal landscape convert to a first bid. Hopefully, LOIs are already being drawn up by advisors following the political assurances 🤞🏻
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