Elliott Jordan-Doak

"Surge in insolvencies is over, and corporate distress is low" @ElliottDoak ow.ly/5Cy050ULE1m #PantheonMacro

@pbergsen @DomWh1te I guess what's interesting this time is that we had an actual inflation shock, it persisted (household expectations were wrong), and expectations still tracked the price growth rate! Even medium term expectations 'anchored'.

@DomWh1te Narrator: "But my dear children, by now you won't be surprised that they did not learn because it would involve having to let go of their favourite model of inflation"

OUT NOW: Vol 30 No 1! Where @mbreen3 and @ElliottDoak analyse the political and economic effects of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) monitoring activities. doi.org/10.1080/096922…

1/8 The Government today announced proposed reforms to Ireland’s pension system. gov.ie/en/press-relea…

@ciaranmcasey @Hodges_Figgis Congrats Ciarán, looking forward to getting a copy soon myself if there are any left!

In @Hodges_Figgis which is fantastic. Apparently it's selling really well. I'm as surprised as you are!

@ciaranmcasey Great share thanks. I haven't read this one but the crisis books are always an excellent read for this kind of context!

There's a section in this that gives his diary for a particularly busy week as Tánaiste and it's just unrelenting- all day, seven days a week, with far too little sleep, being dragged from pillar to post. The personal cost/benefit of politics seems to be getting worse

Excellent wonkery here from my colleague @TimoneyKevin for anyone thinking about Ireland's revenue developments in the coming years (and that structure of the economy more generally)

Ireland’s income tax system is progressive. In 2019, 40% of total employee taxes were paid by the five sectors with the highest hourly wages, including ICT and financial sectors. The five sectors with the lowest hourly wages contributed 22%. 3/4

The Council is launching a new database of the Irish public finances since the foundation of the State – join our webinar on tax and spending trends over the past century with Professor Patrick Honohan on Thursday 21 April 21 at 10am by signing up here: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regist…

If the pension age is kept at 66 rather than increased with life expectancy, further tax increases would be needed. This would require a further €800 for the typical worker at average wages.

Our Chief Economist, Eddie Casey, has an article in today’s Irish Times discussing state pension sustainability. You can read it here: irishtimes.com/business/econo…

My new paper with @ElliottDoak is just out in @RIPEJournal - open access. Thanks to our IPE friends and colleagues for great feedback as we developed it! @LawGovDCU The IMF as a global monitor: surveillance, information, and financial markets tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…

The Council has a new Analytical Note by Niall Conroy, Eddie Casey, and Elliott Jordan-Doak on the Government’s public investment plans as set out in the National Development Plan. The plans should help to meet needs in housing, health and climate areas. fiscalcouncil.ie/wp-content/upl…

@ciaranmcasey 👍You could also hold prices constant nominally and impose a real loss, but you could be waiting a while to win any votes ;)

The devil's in the detail but this could well be the most beneficial housing policy in a generation. The whole point is that you have to collapse land prices and potentially push people into negative equity. If you shy from that you'll never fix housing irishtimes.com/news/ireland/i…

The Tánaiste’s claim on RTE’s “This Week” yesterday that the Fiscal Council failed to predict that the Government would reach budget balance is unfounded. The Council’s role is to assess official forecasts and highlight risks. It did not make fiscal forecasts in those years.

Our National Integrity Index – Private Sector report 2020 is just out! See which Irish companies are sharing most information on their commitments to #anticorruption, financial #transparency, #lobbying and #whistleblowing transparency.ie/national-integ… #integrityindex2020

Only 'evidence' I take from this patronising spectacle is that #NPHET don't trust the public,even after months of compliance with world beating levels of restrictions. One of the lessons of Covid must be that comm' with the public is overhauled.This won't be the final pandemic.

Why talk about the need for "scientific evidence" on the efficacy on antigen tests then produce this useless demonstration? Why waste the Oireachtas time when you can do this in a press conference? Is this the best demonstration that can be done 15 months into the pandemic?

Tomorrow's webinar with our chief economist and chairperson discussing our latest fiscal assessment report. Some great work in the report from the guys and addresses some of the big challenges facing the Irish economy over the next few years. Register below:

@HannoLustig @MinjieDeng Puerto Rico too, I like Rogoff's (2021) paper on this general question.

@MinjieDeng yes, some evidence from Detroit bankruptcy to support this. also, some states have constitutional guarantees for pensions.

U.S. local, state, and federal governments, including pension funds, have made lots of promises to bondholders and transfer recipients. And they keep making new promises. Not all of these promises can be kept. See CBO projections. Question is: which promises will they default on?