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Birmingham were told possession wins promotions. The data backed it up. Promoted sides tend to have more of the ball. Fix the possession, build a promotion side. 38 games in, that idea has a data problem.
Thread 🧵 #BCFC
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xB | Expected Birmingham
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xB | Expected Birmingham
@ExpectedBham
Football data, Blues bias. Player analysis, squad strategy, and Championship trends — three times a week on Substack.
Birmingham Beigetreten Kasım 2025
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Because that matters enormously. If success is built on a system around the coach — data, recruitment, structure — you're not just hiring a manager. You need to understand what you're actually buying.
The wider team can be as important as the coach themselves.
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But here's the nuance I keep coming back to — I don't know the circumstances these coaches operate under.
Is the coach the main man? Or are they part of a wider structure, like Brentford?
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Honest answer? It's complicated. 🧵
First — I don't think it's as simple as getting rid of Davies. There are good things there. Some that need development. Sacking a manager doesn't fix structural problems.
ONeill {UK}@musicbyoneilluk
@ExpectedBham What managers would you be looking at if you was the one making decisions Knowing that we are supposed to be playing an attacking and controlling possession based game
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xB | Expected Birmingham retweetet
Goals from Max Dean and Ferraro in Belgium. Dean coming back from an ACL injury. Moved to Genk from MK Dons in '24.
Ferraro playing for Dender, currently bottom of Belgium Pro League. Think he could do a job in the Champ - can play anywhere on the left. Primarily LB/LWB.
DAZN België@DAZN_BENL
🏴 | Max Dean lijkt de Buffalo's naar de Champions' Play-offs te trappen, maar FC Dender slaat terug! 😳👀 #DENGNT
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@sunnymehta0723 Tough one. Data says chances created matter as much as finishing — it's partly random. Hard to defend publicly though. He's also been mismanaged — we don't play direct or fast enough to suit him. Could still offer something, but only if the system changes.
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@ExpectedBham What are your thoughts on Kyogo? As I understand, strikers should be judged on xG accumulation. He has done this but unfortunately not put them away, but worth pursuing him since the xG model says finishing is to some extent random.
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Exactly this. The data on manager impact is more nuanced than most people think — and asking the right questions matters more than reaching for the obvious answer. I've got something written for Weds on this. 🔵⚪
Sunny Mehta@sunnymehta0723
@ExpectedBham Agree with you. Plus evidence says managers has less influence on results than people think. Answering the questions you are asking would be more effective to look at the issue rather than jumping to the conclusion of ‘it’s the managers fault’
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@Bluenose_Andy No disagreement on that from me. Shankly knew exactly what he wanted to see and when it wasn't there. That clarity is the point. Data doesn't replace judgment, it sharpens it. The best clubs use both imo.
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@ExpectedBham How did Shankly, Herrera, Sacchi, Chapman, Michels know if things were going well? “No fear” is broad, but realising a philosophy isn’t reliant on data. Stats enhance understanding but not everything can be reduced to Quant. Qualitative insight, context and judgment matter too.
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Everyone's talking about Chris Davies' future. Whatever happens next, there's a question that needs answering first — and if we skip it, we'll likely be having this exact conversation again next season. 🧵
#BCFC
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@Bluenose_Andy Fair point — but wins and points are lag metrics. They tell you what happened, not why. The question is what leading indicators Blues track to know they're on the right path before the results show up.
If "no fear" can't be measured, how does anyone know when it's missing?
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@ExpectedBham The long-defined metrics that are mission-critical are Wins, Points, Goals. 'No fear' is a broad philosophy to take initiative, aggressively press, attack and control possession. Data helps and we can quantify those, but not everything in a philosophy will be about a KPI.
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Birmingham were told possession wins promotions. The data backed it up. Promoted sides tend to have more of the ball. Fix the possession, build a promotion side. 38 games in, that idea has a data problem.
Thread 🧵 #BCFC
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Also, any manager worth having isn't walking out on their club now. Askou is pushing Motherwell into Europe. Schreuder has NEC third in Holland. Vrancken is competing at STVV.
Not names I'm necessarily recommending — just making the point. The market opens in the summer.
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Patience isn't about defending Davies. It's about not repeating the same mistake of changing the manager without changing the thinking.
Get the question right before you worry about the answer 🔵⚪
#KRO
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So yes — have the Davies conversation. Understandble under pressure with the 6th most valuable squad in the division.
But do the harder work first. Define the identity. Define the metrics. Define "no fear." Then evaluate everyone against that standard.
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