xB | Expected Birmingham

And Danny Imray - right back, but apparently he has another year on his contract?

A few out of contract players that I would be looking at if I was a #Championship club: Bardelli / #10 / Dunkerque Ito / #10 / St Triuden Reinhart / 8 / Reggiana Brierley / 8 / Brentford (loan at Exeter) Mitchell / 6 / Millwall Soumaré / LW or 9 / Le Havre

Bardelli. Free transfer. #10. Elite finisher and creator. Hull and Wrexham are in. The worry? Champ physicality will test him hard. Def and dueling numbers are a red flag. Could need time to adapt. 🔗xbirmingham.substack.com/p/ligue-2-cent… (written in Feb) #HCAFC #WxmAFC #BCFC

@alexjhurley Shame on me for forgetting TGH. Suspect he'll be leaving though.

@ExpectedBham TGH

Doyle and Solis returning to their parent clubs. Leonard likely out until 2027/28 season. Paik requires shoulder surgery. Only Iwata remains as a CM. Big summer ahead.

Dragged my girlfriend to the Fenerbache stadium though to cheer myself up. Told her one of the greatest right backs in world football used to play here (Bright). She didn't care.

Holiday ruined. Two days in and I saw that Leonard did his achilles and is out for 6-12 months. Shite news. Hope he's doing alright, esp as he had a decent chance at the World Cup. Sounds a horrible injury. Good article on it here: nytimes.com/athletic/72047…

@_chrisquinn Fair!

@ExpectedBham Browne's continued failures from the penalty spot for Ireland mean I cannot forgive him, I'm afraid

Two final-year contracts. Two Championship-proven midfielders. Two very different answers to the same problem at St Andrew's. Full data breakdown inside. 🔵 xbirmingham.substack.com/p/browne-or-wh… #BCFC

At home the 10 problem is hidden. Away from home it's structural collapse. The press comes. The pivot gets squeezed. There's no release valve. The ball goes backwards. Full breakdown of what Birmingham actually need in that position. xbirmingham.substack.com/p/at-home-its-… 🔵 #BCFC

Fàbregas took over and two years later Como are in Europe and Real Madrid are buying their best player back. There's a model here. Birmingham should be paying close attention. 🔵 xbirmingham.substack.com/p/the-pipeline… #BCFC

Off on hol until next week. No Twitter on my phone so if anything big happens, I won't be around (I realise my presence is not important, but thought I should let people know!). Got some articles scheduled for Saturday, Sunday and next Wednesday though - hope you enjoy them.

Also, Vicente is a much better finisher than his Alaves data suggested (0.34 xGOT p90). Behind Kone, but ahead of Kjerrumgaard, Conway, Priske and Stanno. Priske is (0.30), equal to Lankshear and ahead of Stanno and Heggebø. Behind Maja and Mubama. Hopefully both kick on.

Went down a rabbit hole. xGOT measures the likelihood of an on-target shot resulting in a goal. 🥇Toure - 1.26 🥈Simms - 0.82 🥉Larin - 0.77 31st - Ducksch (#BCFC #1) - 0.39 Kelman - 0.39 Osmajic - 0.38 __ Macaulay Langstaff - 0.27 Stanno - 0.24 Emil Riis Jakobsen - 0.24

One of the best forwards in the world and Lamine Yamal.

@Jaytoday1297 Bit harsh😂! The data shows his finishing has been consistently excellent up until about 18 months ago. That usually doesn't change too much, even in different leagues. It's a strange one.

@ExpectedBham He has the composure of a toddler, worst finisher I’ve ever seen and I watched Jonathan Leko, his pace and work ethic means he can do it in poor leagues but not the championship or any decent league

Kyogo's xGOT/90 (shot quality metric): 🟢Celtic 22/23 - 0.85 23/24 - 0.69 24/25 - 0.92 🔵#BCFC 25/26 - 0.15 Positions were there. Goals weren't. Bad year, wrong system, or something more permanent? I still think it can work. I'm a sucker for him tho. Thoughts?

@JeanBluesejour Think we'll still persevere with 1 up top & Priske still needs time to adjust. Can't rely too heavily on him. I'd love to see Stanno more on the left though. Personally, I'd be happy with Priske, Stansfield, Kyogo and someone like Sam Surridge, Ballard, Kyle Joseph or Ohashi.

@ExpectedBham Streaking past Priske, who's won a header and flicked it onto him. I would love it to work for him. Think we could have Wagner overlapping LWB, Stanno LW drifting inside, Vicente RW, Kyogo and Priske as top 2?

@ExpectedBham I think he's got to go.

@DeOxyHull Thanks!

@ExpectedBham Really interesting that- thank you

Southampton haven't lost since January. Boro concede the fewest shots on target of any playoff team. Millwall's attack is built on Hull's biggest weakness. Data on all four ties and what #BCFC should take from it. 🔗xbirmingham.substack.com/p/the-playoffs… #SaintsFC #Boro #hcafc #Millwall