Lewis Robinson
7.8K posts
Lewis Robinson
@ExpectingValue
Small and micro cap investor. I try to know every investible company in the nether regions of the UK market. Manage and consult on investments
Welwyn Garden City, England Beigetreten Temmuz 2011
116 Folgt7K Follower
To add to the chorus: Berkeley #BKG remains admirably candid and disciplined. it is a terrible signal that they - the major housebuilder most aligned with supposed policy direction - cannot make building work
investegate.co.uk/announcement/r…
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@KoR_Wraith @Riccardino999 (at least on the front book end of things, granted the existing book suffers from this mismatch between 5 year agreements and floating ongoing funding... though they are trying to address that!)
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@KoR_Wraith @Riccardino999 SONIA tied to bank rate still hasn't moved obviously, so I'd reframe as removal of an anticipated tailwind - rate reductions. NIM fat enough to absorb, but it does remove some profit upside
Competitive reaction is the unknown - doesn't take much pricing change to ameliorate
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#SUS looks essentially untouched by the proposed motor finance redress scheme, which is great news.
Curious to see if this is really the end of it, though - decent chance Close (and others?) will fight the proposed implementation and it'll drag on.
Lewis Robinson@ExpectingValue
Probably mildly positive for the DCA-heavy lenders (#CBG for instance) and the big guys like #LLOY. Very positive for #SUS, #VANQ and other non-DCA lenders, who I think are going to be barely captured here.
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@Riccardino999 Largely true re: redress but they will have some exposure around the edges on high cost commission cases. The changes to administration in this scheme will massively reduce their cost on that
I've been surprised by how slow capital has been to withdraw, I must say...
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@ExpectingValue Sus was always not part of the redress scheme
And I think they will benefit, since a lot of lenders withdrew from the sector
However I don't think the market participants are that smart
So there's a chance that the stock will be sold off creating a buy opportunity
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@JimmyAJimenez AFAIK Aspen don't lend outside the UK? I know they have foreign nationals, but it's always UK property. Might I be mistaken?
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@ExpectingValue A risk in ME property valuation drops, i.e. lending against an asset which tanks in value and is potentially unsalable
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@JimmyAJimenez I hadn't even thought of that. I know they did a reasonable amount for ME nationals. Anything specific you can think of?
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@ExpectingValue I’d put the recent #SUS pullback down to some sort of Middle East property bridging loan exposure via Aspen
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Bit of a weak line from the FCA pleading for acquiescence:
"We expect everyone to get behind the scheme, and lenders to put things right promptly for their customers. We need to draw a line under the past and support a healthy motor finance market for the future."
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@PETERMINIHAN @Smallcapscat1 Years ago I made a solemn pledge to UK small caps; not a day goes by where I do not look wistfully beyond these shores at what could have been
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@Smallcapscat1 @ExpectingValue The trouble is with all mkts getting spanked why look at UK small caps? Unfortunately just as we were having our moment in the sun ie very undervalued against other mkts and beginning to tick up we’re killed by recent events.
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UK small caps feel totally liquidity driven at the moment (always was, yadda yadda). Cannot overstate how thin a market it is with how much capital has flowed out. Very little tail of trading wagging the dog, helped by a few players with big outflows
(yes, I'm getting spanked)
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@ExpectingValue Lewis…if it’s any comfort please be assured that I will never use AI to augment my bollox
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Mainstream media is irredeemably ideologically captured. Luckily, I can turn to social media commentators paid for doom mongering, insane logical leaps, and stroking the fantasies of their particular niche
GIF
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Thank God the froth is finally coming out of the UK stock market
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For some reason, the market doesn't seem to be appreciating that my cash rich micro caps are already trading at a substantial discount to conservatively calculated intrinsic value
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Anyone know a good (London-focused presumably best) conveyancer for a small resi project?
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#RFX Guided £24-28m two months later. Safe to say they were sandbagged!
Lewis Robinson@ExpectingValue
#RFX now at guided £18m of PBT for the year, circa 40p EPS. Numbers still samdbagged - broker assumes gold price 20% below current levels, among other things
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@rhomboid1MF This may be a mythical unwarning... I also thought it was but upon opening the broker note they have held forecasts!
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#NXQ warns londonstockexchange.com/news-article/N…
..and buys a new office in Taipei for $15.5m whilst selling the old office for $3.7m
Seems anomalous but I’m not a close follower of “onenexteq”
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