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@ExperimentalPar

Finding Systematic Edges In Markets. Posts are Ideas & opinions only. Not investment advice.

Beigetreten Nisan 2026
176 Folgt100 Follower
9 Ventures
9 Ventures@ThematicTrader·
$ADTN due diligence 2.0 dropping 🔜
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KaizenInvestor
KaizenInvestor@Kaizen_Investor·
Time for my monthly portfolio update. MTD performance: +40.4%. YTD performance: +97.8% I made a couple of trades this month. Bought some $WOLF and $FLNC in the beginning of the month and sold my $TMDX shares. My cash allocation is around 11.6% at the moment. Unless I found some great new additions, I see my building up a bit of cash at the moment (just by saving my income, not by selling). A deeper dive into the performance, the allocation is without my 11.6% cash at the moment and the performance is the monthly performance. 1. $PL (+44%): Planet did not only broke above the $40, but also now notes steadily above the $50. They report earnings next Thursday (04/06) and I'm really looking forward to this one. Last quarter was great and their forecast was rather conservative. I think we are in for another great quarter. I always said we can see the stock moving to $60 before year end, and that is still my target. I will do a separate post of what I expect during earnings. 2. $RKLB (+75%): Rocket Lab surged on some great earnings this month. The stock was only up 10% YTD before the earnings, now up 89%. Stock was only up 10% because of the rising concern of the competition of SpaceX, last quarter rklb proved they should not be scared of the competition and there is room for both them and SpaceX. Space had an excellent month and I expect the space to keep accelerating. 3. $OUST (+77%): I always said Ouster is a $40 company but it would take time. Earnings exactly proved this and the stock dropped 20% towards $24. Two weeks later, Ouster is now trading at $46. LiDAR has gained more popularity in the last couple of weeks and investors gained trust that Ouster will deliver. I keep my shares as I think Ouster is a stock for the long-term, but for me, not in buy territory any more. 4. $PLTR (+13%): Palantir has long been my number 1 stock. Down almost 25% for the highs, Palantir is hoping to end a rough stock pricing period. Earnings are still exceptional though. Accelerating revenue growth Year on Year is impressive and on top of that they are making the commercial side more important. They are not entirely dependent on defensive contracts any more. Still my favorite AI software play. 5. Sk Hynix (+77%): I should have bought way more SK Hynix 3months ago (+114%). I decided to sell my $ASML shares (+13% in 3 months), to buy SK Hynix but should have poured more money into the company. Hynix and memory is still immensely undervalued imo, investors are still rerating them from cyclical product to a core AI bottleneck. 6. $AMPX (-3%): Down 34% due to not spectacular earnings, the company crawled back the last two weeks. The long-term view on Amprius is just too bullish, drones are an important part of our future and Amprius is providing the best quality batteries for them. They are also improving on the non-drone sectors like eVTOL, robotics, and space. 7. $IREN (+47%): My highest cost allocated stock in portfolio. Have been a bag holder for a long time but now +-30%. Datacenters are needed and IREN is perfectly positioned to proved Hyperscalers exactly what they need. It's still waiting on a new deal for Iren but it is just a question of when instead of if. 8. $MRVL (+29%): Posted great earnings this month. But as the stock already doubled since March, Marvell did not move too much. Marvell is in the center of everything that is related to photonics. They got a healthy balance sheet to do the right acquisitions and management proved to be very capable of pushing Marvell to a next level. 9. $ASM.AS (+28%): I got ASM International longest in portfolio of all my stocks. ASM manufactures advanced wafer processing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips. I use the stock as a safe heaven in my portfolio. It have been a great year for them though and the stock has proven to be quite cyclical. If they move to my €1.000 target, it can be that I will sell for now. 10. Filtronic (+42%): Dropped 20% from ath due to less than expected CapEx from SpaceX, the stock still performed very well. Filtronic build the E-Band GaN Amps for SpaceX and they have a research collaboration with SpaceX to move to other frequencies as well. I they succeed, I'm sure Filtronic will move up my portfolio quickly. 11. $WOLF (+111%): Working away debt, a bullish SiC report of the BoA and price targets exceeding $80, helped wolf to double this month. The stock is moving into a very volatile period as some investors are looking to lock in some profits. But institutions who keep buying the stock, are keep pushing the stock higher. Long-term outlook is very bullish for Wolfspeed. 12. $FLNC (62%): Down 30% after the earnings peak due to the owners who will sell a big stake in the company. When a company like Fluence gets too big, it needs to live it's own live. This happens all the time, ASML is a perfect example of a company that got sold by the owners. Fluence posted great earnings though. The battery manufacturer secured two contracts with Hyperscalers. They did not give too much details during earnings but next quarters should be crucial for the company. 13. $GOOGL (+3%): Nothing spectacular here. Alphabet already doubled in the last year. I think the company can become the most valuable company in the world at a certain moment. They own parts of SpaceX, Ast Spacemobil, Planet Labs, Anthropic,... Own Youtube, Waymo, have TPU's,... It looks like Alphabet is in everything they need to be at the moment. 14. $HIMS (+0.87%): With the AI hardware wave in full glory, pharma companies like HIMS stay under the radar. Pharma still got the biggest growing TAM outside of AI and HIMS is ideally positioned to profit from this wave. I only have a 3.7% allocation at the moment, but I might be looking to add to this allocation in the future. I'll stay transparent with all the moves I make on this page.
KaizenInvestor tweet mediaKaizenInvestor tweet media
KaizenInvestor@Kaizen_Investor

I have some new followers asking about my porftolio. I always give a monthly update on my portfolio but as I had the question a lot last week, I share it again. I have 15% cash but I left it out of the portfolio here: 1. $PL - 16% (average cost: $4 -> +876%) 2. $RKLB - 10.1% (average cost: $20 -> +427%) 3. $FLNC - 7.9% (average cost: $17.53 -> +37.82%) 4. $PLTR - 7.8% (average cost: $30.6 -> +429%) 5. $IREN - 6.7% (average cost: $42.12 -> +45.3%) 6. $ASM.AS - 6.5% (average cost: €279 -> +215%) 7. SK Hynix - 6.3% (average cost: €487 -> +118.7%) 8. $GOOGL - 6.3% (average cost: $132 -> +200.7%) 9. $FTC - 6.0% (average cost: £2.33 -> +63.09%) 10. $AMPX - 5.9% (average cost: $10.43 -> +60.11%) 11. $MVRL - 5.6% (average cost: $88.66 -> +91.70%) 12. $OUST - 5.3% (average cost: $19.06 -> +31.43%) 13. $WOLF - 4.8% (average cost: $36 -> +29.44%) 14. $HIMS - 4.7% (average cost: $37.6 -> -24.81%) Feel free to ask some questions about the portfolio. I can also make a thread about my investment thesis of these stocks.

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Babyfolio
Babyfolio@babyfolio·
What companies should I be looking into that aren't already priced for perfection through 2028? Sometimes I feel like my default answer is always to go back to memory and $NBIS. The problem is that when I look around the market, so many names already have years of execution priced in. I'm genuinely curious: What companies do you think still have massive upside? Drop your best ideas below 👇
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Quant
Quant@ExperimentalPar·
Check $TMC The Metals Company. They sit on the only SEC compliant deep sea reserve ever filed. Four critical metals in one rock, nickel, copper, cobalt, manganese, sitting loose on the seafloor. No drilling, no blasting, no 29 year mine timeline. You send a collector down and pick them up off the bottom. $23.6B stated NPV, and it trades around 10% of that. Late stage developers usually trade at 30% of NAV after a permit grant, which puts fair value near $16, more than double from here. A producer rerate points much higher, toward the $38 to $54 the stated NPV per share actually implies. While most US projects sit in a decades long permitting grind, $TMC is years ahead. NOAA full compliance done, production agreement signed, US permit decision expected by Q1 2027.
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CK Capital
CK Capital@CKCapitalxx·
Full port challenge starts tomorrow. As I said subs will get first access then will release on public page later. Stock has been picked out and I think it’s a good one.
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Space Investor
Space Investor@SpaceInvestor_D·
$RDW - Redwire is currently exploring flight opportunities for a MASON demonstration mission. With NASA stating that in the coming weeks, additional CLPS 1.0 task awards are expected to be announced for Moon Base payloads and technology demonstrations, I wouldn't be surprised if Redwire secured a role in this effort.
Space Investor@SpaceInvestor_D

x.com/i/article/2061…

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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
$TMC the metals company. Only SEC compliant deep sea reserve ever filed. $23.6B stated NPV against a ~$2.62B market cap, about 11% of NAV. The thesis is time. Every other US project is stuck in a 29 year permitting grind. TMC's metals sit loose on the seafloor, no drilling, no blasting, so it's targeting production in 2027 while everyone else waits decades. NOAA full compliance done, Allseas deal signed, permit expected by end of Q1 2027.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Okay chat, it’s been awhile since the previous one. And a ton of names from $VPG to $ASPI cooked. So crowdsourcing a new list: What’s your highest conviction ticker that you think can 10x in a short timeframe, and why?
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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
A weak won isn't a problem for Korea, it's basically the plan. They sell chips, cars, and phones for dollars, and a weak won turns those dollars into more won back into the economy. It's literally pumping up the memory earnings you're watching. A "reset" to a stronger won would just shrink those profits.
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Steve Hou@stevehou

Now that everyone has to pay attention to Korean memory companies earnings, can we talk about the absurdly low exchange rate of the Korean Won? USD-KRW used to be pegged at 1:15 at birth but plummeted as result of postwar episodes of hyperinflation and crises. Time for a reset.

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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
@kevinxu Rage baiting much?
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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
@mjcRavens1 Lol, he got a well deserved mill. Spotted the play early on.
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MJC
MJC@mjcRavens1·
@ExperimentalPar I know someone who put 240k @ $2.37 into it 🤔 Hanging for a cool mil
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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
@Frenchie_ Q1 free cash flow burn was $93M, Q2 guide is another $87M to $92M burn, and they still had ATM capacity left. Knowing sepsis too well, I'm expecting an offering. I explain in the tweet below if you're interested... x.com/ExperimentalPa…
Quant@ExperimentalPar

SpaceX is about to IPO under the ticker $SPCX. Virgin Galactic trades under $SPCE. One letter off. A smart virgin on WallStreetBets posted a DD: SpaceX may list as $SPCX. Retail may see the ticker and buy $SPCE by mistake. One letter off. That was the joke... Then the joke became a meme... Now the meme is up 150%. from about $2.47 to $6.18 Historically, what does Virgin Galactic do when the stock pumps and they need cash? Offerings... aka Dilution of stocks to raise money Q1 numbers: Revenue: $0.2M Net loss: $65M Free cash flow: negative $93M Cash and securities: $251M Q2 guide: Another negative $87M to $92M in free cash flow. So in one quarter, they burned about 37% of their March cash balance. That is before the next guided burn. They also sold $11M of stock in Q1 through their ATM program. Then they sold another $51.6M in April. They still had about $87M left to sell. This is not new behavior. In 2025, they raised $122M by issuing stock. By March 2026, they had already sold 41.6M shares under the current stock sale program. Then April added another 18.1M shares. The 10Q also says there is substantial doubt about the company continuing as a going concern. A meme doubles the stock. Management gets a free window to potentially print shares and refill the tank. That's dilution. Dilution is what ends the party. Am I saying we can time it? No. Nobody can. Am I saying an offering is guaranteed? No. But the burn is real, the runway is short, and the gun is already loaded. It just depends on when management decides to pull the trigger on the virgins on the street.

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Frenchie
Frenchie@Frenchie_·
Un des posts qui a fait le plus de bruit sur Wallstreetbets c’est un mec qui a mis 130k $ dans $SPCE (un memestock) en pensant investir dans l’IPO de SpaceX Même Oussama Ammar avait probablement une meilleure exposition à SpaceX.
Frenchie tweet media
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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
SpaceX is about to IPO under the ticker $SPCX. Virgin Galactic trades under $SPCE. One letter off. A smart virgin on WallStreetBets posted a DD: SpaceX may list as $SPCX. Retail may see the ticker and buy $SPCE by mistake. One letter off. That was the joke... Then the joke became a meme... Now the meme is up 150%. from about $2.47 to $6.18 Historically, what does Virgin Galactic do when the stock pumps and they need cash? Offerings... aka Dilution of stocks to raise money Q1 numbers: Revenue: $0.2M Net loss: $65M Free cash flow: negative $93M Cash and securities: $251M Q2 guide: Another negative $87M to $92M in free cash flow. So in one quarter, they burned about 37% of their March cash balance. That is before the next guided burn. They also sold $11M of stock in Q1 through their ATM program. Then they sold another $51.6M in April. They still had about $87M left to sell. This is not new behavior. In 2025, they raised $122M by issuing stock. By March 2026, they had already sold 41.6M shares under the current stock sale program. Then April added another 18.1M shares. The 10Q also says there is substantial doubt about the company continuing as a going concern. A meme doubles the stock. Management gets a free window to potentially print shares and refill the tank. That's dilution. Dilution is what ends the party. Am I saying we can time it? No. Nobody can. Am I saying an offering is guaranteed? No. But the burn is real, the runway is short, and the gun is already loaded. It just depends on when management decides to pull the trigger on the virgins on the street.
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WallStreetBets@wallstreetbets

UPDATE: $SPCE is now up 36% retail saw SpaceX IPO ticker $SPCX and bought $SPCE close enough apparently 😭

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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
@CKCapitalxx I liked your $ADTN thesis more.
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CK Capital
CK Capital@CKCapitalxx·
$PENG keeps climbing and it still feels undervalued to me at this price. This is a company that builds mission critical AI infrastructure for NASA, the US Air Force, the US Navy, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing. Customers that take years to qualify and never leave once you are in. On the commercial side they partner directly with $NVDA, $AMD, $INTC, SK Hynix, and Dell Technologies. The most important names in compute on earth. The board tells you where this is going. The sitting CTO of $AMD. Nokia's former optical networking president who built their entire photonics business. The chair of $LITE. The former head of Advanced Computing at $AMZN. You do not assemble a board like that for a company you expect to stay small. The business itself is accelerating. Enterprise and sovereign AI pipeline growing 50%. Every AI cluster deployed bundles GPUs, CPUs, memory, and networking into a single system and $PENG captures systems revenue on every deployment regardless of which chip wins. Full year guidance raised. 15x forward earnings on a defense grade AI infrastructure company. And the $MRVL photonic memory optionality is still sitting at zero in every model. The Photonic Memory Appliance being built right now. $MRVL guiding $1 billion on the Photonic Fabric platform by FY29. $PENG builds the box. Not a dollar of that priced in anywhere today. Defense grade customers. The best partners in the industry. A world class board. Photonic memory upside completely free. Even after the run this still trades like the market has not fully figured out what it owns.
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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
The real critical minerals problem is time. Deep sea mining is the only fix that moves fast enough to matter, targeting production by 2027. $TMC solves this. This article by Brian Paes Braga lays out the problem In 2015 he started a lithium company from nothing and sold it two and a half years later for C$265 million in cash. Over his career he has put together more than C$5 billion in deals, and he sat on $TMC 's board back when it was still private. Everyone already knows that China controls about 70% of mineral processing. Everyone knows the US is racing to bring that capacity home. Thats not the insight. The insight is the clock. A new American mine takes about 29 years to go from discovery to production. One of the slowest timelines on earth. And America is trying to rearm its military, build out AI data centers, and electrify the grid all at once, all of it depending on the same metals. None of those things can wait 29 years. Now here's the trap nobody points at. Every so called solution on the table is still conventional mining. Dig, blast, permit, build, repeat. New mine, new refinery, same decades long grind. You cannot drill your way out of this the way shale drilled America out of the oil crisis. The clock doesn't move. Unless the metal isn't in the ground at all That's the part that should make you sit up. $TMC 's metals aren't buried under a mountain waiting on 29 years of permits and excavation. They're sitting loose on the seafloor. Potato sized rocks holding four critical metals at once, nickel, copper, cobalt, manganese, already concentrated, just lying there. No drilling. No blasting. No tailings dam. You send a collector down and pick them up off the bottom. That's not a faster mine. It's a different category of thing. And it's the entire reason TMC can target production in 2027 while almost every other project in America is still standing in the 29 year line. Link to the post: theoregongroup.com/investment-ins… $MP $USAR $CRML $PPTA $UUUU $OKLO $TMQ $LAC $NB, Korea Zinc (KRX: 010130), Pacific Metals / PAMCO (TSE: 5541)
The Metals Company@themetalsco

NOAA Certifies TMC USA’s USA B Exploration License Application. Read the press release: investors.metals.co/news-releases/… $TMC #deepseamining

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