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@ExperimentalPar

Finding Systematic Edges In Markets. Posts are Ideas & opinions only. Not investment advice.

Katılım Nisan 2026
174 Takip Edilen137 Takipçiler
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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
$AVGO Q2 '26 Earnings Bullish Takeaway: Broadcom achieved record Q2 FY26 revenue of $22,187 million, an increase of 48 percent from the prior year period, demonstrating strong top-line growth. Broadcom also generated $10,262 million in free cash flow for the second quarter, representing 46 percent of revenue. Broadcom's Q2 semiconductor revenue from AI reached $10.8 billion, growing 143% year-over-year, which was above its forecast. This growth was driven by increasing demand for custom AI accelerators and AI networking. Adjusted EBITDA for Broadcom increased 52% year-over-year to a record $15,244 million in Q2 FY26, representing 69% of revenue. This reflects Broadcom's strong operating leverage and efficient business model. Bearish Takeaway: Broadcom is not readily able to provide a reconciliation of projected non-GAAP financial measures to the relevant projected GAAP measures without unreasonable effort, limiting transparency for future financial performance. Broadcom faces risks associated with global economic conditions and uncertainty, government regulations, trade restrictions, and trade tensions. These external factors could materially affect Broadcom's future business results. The semiconductor industry is undergoing profound change due to AI, and Broadcom also has significant indebtedness. The company needs to generate sufficient cash flows to service and repay such debt.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that to be raised this earning, hence the drop) Remember $NVDA Jensen comments about $MRVL $1T company around networking/connectivity/interconnects? - “So as the TPUs continue to accelerate, there’ll be pressure overall on margins. But the connectivity side, the AI networking side of the business has very rich margins” “Demand for … networking is simply insatiable” Also very positive read through as well for the $LITE and the other players. But for TPU margins it goes down at scale, which is understandable. - “they are placing orders in fairly huge demand, which basically gives us a lot more visibility.. runs all the way to 2028 right now” positive read through on overall AI demand since it’s 2026 now… and orders are out in 2028 - The initial order for 1 gigawatt, which includes XPUs and our networking has been received and will start Delivery in the second half of 2027. for our other two customers, we expect shipments to begin late 2026 and accelerate into 2027. $META custom AI program h2 2027 timelines - “Our revenue, our content per gigawatt will increase. you start putting a lot, you start putting embedding CPU cores into the same XPUs and making those chips basically multi die with lots of hvm.” Just for the GW modelers. - “For OpenAI we have delivered silicon and we are on track for production late 2026” OpenAI custom program timeline - “If you ask about 27 or 28 that will continue to grow. We expect in fact 28 to be a substantial growth from what we are forecasting in 27.” More about the demand ramp, go brrr - “Google, that we expect a diversity of sources from them” Mediatek (2454) primary beneficary, maybe $MRVL. Already expected though Google doesn’t sole source so they don’t get bottlenecked. There’s quite a lot of AI demand visibility way until 2028, which is bullish on the AI sector as a whole. Regardless, Broadcom ends the week +0% lol. TLDR: Strongly bullish AI demand, especially networking. Stocks don’t move in a straight line up, but demand curves 2026-> 2027 -> 2028.
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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
$AVGO Q2 '26 Earnings Bullish Takeaway: Broadcom achieved record Q2 FY26 revenue of $22,187 million, an increase of 48 percent from the prior year period, demonstrating strong top-line growth. Broadcom also generated $10,262 million in free cash flow for the second quarter, representing 46 percent of revenue. Broadcom's Q2 semiconductor revenue from AI reached $10.8 billion, growing 143% year-over-year, which was above its forecast. This growth was driven by increasing demand for custom AI accelerators and AI networking. Adjusted EBITDA for Broadcom increased 52% year-over-year to a record $15,244 million in Q2 FY26, representing 69% of revenue. This reflects Broadcom's strong operating leverage and efficient business model. Bearish Takeaway: Broadcom is not readily able to provide a reconciliation of projected non-GAAP financial measures to the relevant projected GAAP measures without unreasonable effort, limiting transparency for future financial performance. Broadcom faces risks associated with global economic conditions and uncertainty, government regulations, trade restrictions, and trade tensions. These external factors could materially affect Broadcom's future business results. The semiconductor industry is undergoing profound change due to AI, and Broadcom also has significant indebtedness. The company needs to generate sufficient cash flows to service and repay such debt.
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Babyfolio@babyfolio·
Everything is down, thanks for the dips $AVGO -14% AH🔴
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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
$AVGO Bullish Takeaway: Broadcom achieved record Q2 FY26 revenue of $22,187 million, an increase of 48 percent from the prior year period, demonstrating strong top-line growth. Broadcom also generated $10,262 million in free cash flow for the second quarter, representing 46 percent of revenue. Broadcom's Q2 semiconductor revenue from AI reached $10.8 billion, growing 143% year-over-year, which was above its forecast. This growth was driven by increasing demand for custom AI accelerators and AI networking. Adjusted EBITDA for Broadcom increased 52% year-over-year to a record $15,244 million in Q2 FY26, representing 69% of revenue. This reflects Broadcom's strong operating leverage and efficient business model. Bearish Takeaway: Broadcom is not readily able to provide a reconciliation of projected non-GAAP financial measures to the relevant projected GAAP measures without unreasonable effort, limiting transparency for future financial performance. Broadcom faces risks associated with global economic conditions and uncertainty, government regulations, trade restrictions, and trade tensions. These external factors could materially affect Broadcom's future business results. The semiconductor industry is undergoing profound change due to AI, and Broadcom also has significant indebtedness. The company needs to generate sufficient cash flows to service and repay such debt. $CRWD Bullish Takeaway: Crowdstrike achieved record Q1 net new ARR of $256 million, up 32% year-over-year, and total revenue increased 26% to $1.39 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2027. Crowdstrike delivered strong Q1 results with record cash flow from operations of $591 million and record free cash flow of $468 million. Crowdstrike launched new AI-driven innovations like Agentic MDR and Falcon Data Security, and expanded strategic collaborations with Open AI, Anthropic, IBM, and Intel. Bearish Takeaway: Crowdstrike faces risks related to a content configuration update for its Falcon sensor on July 19, 2024, which caused system crashes for certain Windows systems. Risks are associated with managing Crowdstrike's rapid growth and its ability to identify and effectively implement necessary changes to address execution challenges. Crowdstrike operates in an intensely competitive and rapidly evolving market, facing risks related to its ability to respond to industry trends and technological developments.
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CK Capital@CKCapitalxx·
What is going on after hours??? Everything is dumping hard.
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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
SpaceX is expected to price its IPO on June 11, 2026. with shares expected to start trading on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026 under ticker $SPCX. Reuters says SpaceX has set a $135/share IPO price and is targeting a roughly $75B raise at about $1.75T valuation. SpaceX has already filed publicly with the SEC: its original S-1 was filed May 20, 2026, and an amended S-1/A was filed June 1, 2026. Key caveat: IPO terms can still change until the final prospectus/effective pricing, but the current target is trading June 12.
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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
@mkfilko I wouldn't touch this before the lockup period is done and the dilution overhang is over.
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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
Now imagine where $TMC reprices to after news like this. This is the playbook now, and $TMC hasn't had its turn yet. I have 2 examples for you of what a US government check does to a critical minerals stock: $MP Materials: the DoD took a $400M stake last July, and the stock closed that day around $45. MP started 2025 near $16. after the DoD $400M stake in July, the stock ran to an all time high of $100 by October. Roughly 6x in a year. $USAR was $9 a year ago. Commerce stepped in for $1.6B, the private side put up $1.5B, $3.5B in total committed. The stock now trades near $28.5. More than tripled in a year.
cek@cekdrew

NEWS: $USAR USA Rare Earth Finalizes Definitive Agreements with U.S. Department of Commerce, Unlocking Access to Up to $1.6 Billion to Advance the Leading Rare Earth Value Chain USA Rare Earth today announced the execution of definitive agreements with the U.S. Department of Commerce, unlocking access to up to $1.6 billion in funding under the Department of Commerce’s CHIPS Program. The definitive agreements comprise up to $277 million in federal funding and up to $1.3 billion in senior secured loan capacity under the CHIPS Act, with disbursements tied to the achievement of project milestones. Prior to the definitive documents, USA Rare Earth closed $1.5 billion in private capital raise, signed certain strategic customer agreements, and advanced Round Top. The definitive agreements establish the framework under which USAR will continue to build out its integrated heavy rare earth mining, metal, and magnet global value chain. Together with the $1.5 billion private capital raise completed in January 2026 and previous capital raises, the agreements bring total committed capital supporting USAR’s growth plan to approximately $3.5 billion. "This partnership with the U.S. Government is the largest of its kind in our industry and provides the necessary capital to build the only global platform across light and heavy rare earth mining and processing, metal and alloy making, as well as magnet manufacturing - for the benefit of the United States and its allies,” said Michael Blitzer, Chairman of the Board of USA Rare Earth. "This landmark collaboration reflects the scale and urgency of securing critical supply chains for technologies essential to long-term economic growth. We are grateful for the leadership shown across government in moving with speed and conviction. Our focus now is execution and generating industry-leading returns for both our shareholders and the U.S. Government.” manilatimes.net/2026/06/03/tmt…

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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
I don't care where $TMC closes today, because I know what I'm holding. A new American mine takes about 29 years from discovery to production, and no amount of money speeds that up. The AI buildout, defense and the grid need these metals now, not in 29 years. That gap is the whole opportunity. TMC sidesteps it. Its metal isnt buried, it sits loose on the seafloor, so it's already at a US permit decision in Q1 2027 with production after, while the rest of the field is still at year one. And it's cheap. NAV, the project's full worth in today's dollars, is $54 a share. The stock is $6.25... On what it already has, full NOAA compliance and the Allseas deal signed, fair value for me is about $16, or 30% of NAV. More comes with production. And that's before the catalysts stacking up between now and the Q1 permit, each one a chance to close the gap. I broke them all down in the article below. Now, on what's in hand → 30% of NAV → Q1 2027 → opens the producer path Production, 2028 → 70 to 100% of NAV → $38 to $54 Producer plus a gov deal or metals rip → $60 to $100+ Long $TMC, not advice.
Quant@ExperimentalPar

x.com/i/article/2059…

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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
$TE This KORE deal may be the moment the market starts realizing T1 Energy is not trying to be just another solar manufacturer. It is trying to become a domestic power platform. That distinction matters. The easy take is that T1 bought a battery storage company for $32 million. The better take is that T1 just bought a missing layer of the energy stack. Before today, the story was mostly domestic solar manufacturing. Can T1 build G2_Austin? Can it scale U.S. solar cell production? Can it benefit from reshoring, tariffs, domestic content demand, and 45X credits? That was already a big story. But it was still mostly a manufacturing story. KORE changes the conversation. T1 is acquiring the NRI business, which brings experience in designing, delivering, installing, controlling, operating, and servicing utility scale battery energy storage systems. In plain English, T1 is no longer just trying to sell the piece that generates power. It is moving toward selling the system that generates, stores, controls, and operates power. That is a much larger customer conversation. For AI data centers, utilities, and industrial customers, the problem is not simply “we need panels.” The problem is “we need reliable power.” Solar helps generate it. Batteries help store it. Controls and software help manage it. Operations keep it running. That is what makes this deal strategically interesting. And the price looks unusually attractive if management’s numbers are even close. T1 is paying about $32 million of enterprise value, plus a possible $9.6 million equity earnout. Management expects KORE to contribute approximately $15 million to $20 million of EBITDA in 2027. That is the kind of purchase multiple value investors notice. A small acquisition that can potentially expand the addressable market, deepen the customer offering, add EBITDA, and make the core platform more valuable is exactly the type of bolt on deal that can change the perception of a company. This is why I do not think the market should view today’s news as a random acquisition. It is more likely a strategic bridge. Solar manufacturing alone is valuable. Solar plus storage plus controls plus operations is a platform. And platforms deserve different conversations than commodity manufacturers. The remaining key question is financing. T1 still needs to finalize the funding package for G2_Austin. Management has said it is working toward a comprehensive financing solution with a significant debt component. If that financing lands on attractive terms, the KORE acquisition could look like the moment T1’s story widened from “can they build the factory?” to “how large can this domestic power platform become?” That is why today matters. The acquisition does not just add an asset. It adds a capability. It adds customers. It adds a new market. It adds a stronger reason for hyperscalers, utilities, developers, government customers, national labs, and industrial power users to take T1 seriously. For me, the clean takeaway is this: T1 Energy just became a more interesting company than it was yesterday. Not because the headline is loud. Because the strategy now makes more sense.
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay

$TE agreed to acquire KORE Power for ~$32M giving T1 Energy direct exposure to battery storage and AI data center infrastructure. The deal adds KORE’s utility-scale battery storage platform with ~1,100 global projects and is expected to contribute ~$20M of EBITDA in 2027.

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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
@TheStoicCapital For some reason, your case reminds me of $TMC right now.
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HENNY@hennycapital·
This was at $4, $TE. Sentiment was all time low, all the fake bulls left. I kept buying, adding on every dip. $TE now at ATH, I am up over 150% on my original positions. Conviction above ALL.
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HENNY@hennycapital

@memalos_kats Long term conviction brother, still green in my position, still bullish long term solar and $TE.

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Quant@ExperimentalPar·
Called it. Gun was loaded. Management pulled the trigger. Today $SPCE announced they’re paying off $30.5M in notes debt with common stock. Down ~38% on the news. I didn’t time it. I read the 10Q.
Quant@ExperimentalPar

SpaceX is about to IPO under the ticker $SPCX. Virgin Galactic trades under $SPCE. One letter off. A smart virgin on WallStreetBets posted a DD: SpaceX may list as $SPCX. Retail may see the ticker and buy $SPCE by mistake. One letter off. That was the joke... Then the joke became a meme... Now the meme is up 150%. from about $2.47 to $6.18 Historically, what does Virgin Galactic do when the stock pumps and they need cash? Offerings... aka Dilution of stocks to raise money Q1 numbers: Revenue: $0.2M Net loss: $65M Free cash flow: negative $93M Cash and securities: $251M Q2 guide: Another negative $87M to $92M in free cash flow. So in one quarter, they burned about 37% of their March cash balance. That is before the next guided burn. They also sold $11M of stock in Q1 through their ATM program. Then they sold another $51.6M in April. They still had about $87M left to sell. This is not new behavior. In 2025, they raised $122M by issuing stock. By March 2026, they had already sold 41.6M shares under the current stock sale program. Then April added another 18.1M shares. The 10Q also says there is substantial doubt about the company continuing as a going concern. A meme doubles the stock. Management gets a free window to potentially print shares and refill the tank. That's dilution. Dilution is what ends the party. Am I saying we can time it? No. Nobody can. Am I saying an offering is guaranteed? No. But the burn is real, the runway is short, and the gun is already loaded. It just depends on when management decides to pull the trigger on the virgins on the street.

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