Hearthstone Mathematics

@TALMIZ38696204 I’ve already done what you asked youtu.be/iUpKDjcl4gI

@HS_mathematics Please make video about this !!!

For over 8 years, I’ve been collecting my own card popularity statistics in Standard. With the upcoming Core Set rotation, I became curious: How much impact is each class actually losing and how strong are the replacements?

Video version with my commentary 👉 youtu.be/iUpKDjcl4gI

To answer this, I compared the average in-class impact of rotating Core cards over the last 2 years, with the historical average impact of the cards being added to Core. Then I summed the usefulness scores to establish a ratio between power lost and potentially power regained.

In one of the timelines, the League defeated Rafaam, preventing him from resurrecting Galakrond. To achieve this, Reno finally had to become a dragon. Endtime Murozond could prevent the League of Explorers from ever forming in the past, which would allow Galakrond to return.

A Timeline Without the League of Explorers? My Theory on Hearthstone’s Next Expansion Theme. Interesting fact: Three out of four locations shown in the teaser are directly connected to the League of Explorers. They appeared in expansions far less often than it might seem.

This list is based on my Utility Index algorithm. This percentage-based metric shows how important a card is to the game as a whole. It’s built on a wide set of factors: winrates, card popularity, class importance, flexibility, and its value in the Wild format.

The Most Useful Hearthstone Legendary Cards.👇I analyzed the post-patch meta to see how the usefulness of Legendary cards has changed, and I created a list of the Top 100 Best Legendaries for the current meta. The analysis is based on roughly 1000 decks from HSGuru and HSReplay

@Anthony_Tachi Thanks a lot!

@HS_mathematics To the end of wars....except maybe in games, then. Be safe, my friends....

I calculated Dora’s luck and found out she opened the worst packs in the past few years. What about your luck? ;] Are you happy with your Across the Timeways packs?

@Anthony_Tachi I appreciate it, but I should clarify that I’m in relative safety compared to many other Ukrainians. Although missile and drone attacks on my city happen from time to time, it’s hard to compare that to what people in the eastern part of the country experience on a regular basis.

@HS_mathematics No....even with mortars blasting you've been giving your all for a game that sometimes doesn't love back. Plus, we players can be insufferable. We value your opinions. You have our respect and more importantly, our trust.

@Anthony_Tachi Thank you!

@HS_mathematics Ooh...I forgot Lvl 293 in Rewards Track; 83% Achievements. I'm smelling my days with this game are numbered.

@renojacksonx Terrible stats. My condolences...

@HS_mathematics Not worse than me. Only 3 legendaries in 90 packs, I just opened 2 more packs now to be comparable and still only 3 in 92 packs. First 10 guaranteed legendary is at exact 10, others are a few away from pity timers. One is 39 other is 35 or 36. No golden leg, no sig.

@TheOneAndTheAll I wouldn't be so categorical, but serious problems definitely exist.

@HS_mathematics The packs themselves yes. The way the cards are not impactful or strong, no. The game is devolving every expansion in a pathetic attempt to fix itself which is only running away more and more players, furthering their own inevitable demise of the game at this point. #BoycottBlizz

@Nacho371 This is not bad ;]

@HS_mathematics Only 3 legendaries in like 70 packs...

🤖💬 A tough choice 🇺🇦Incurro or 🇺🇦santamaks... Щиро бажаю успіхів обом! Choose your champion here 👉 hearthstone.blizzard.com/en-us/vote/cho…

@Anthony_Tachi @FlareIsGone A sad trend! A lot will depend on the audience. The Hearthstone community definitely won’t accept this easily, while Candy Crush players might not care as much about how their favorite game evolves.

@FlareIsGone @HS_mathematics I fear Hearthstone is next. youtu.be/F3FYsGitd7o?si…

@FlareIsGone @Anthony_Tachi Honestly, I have no logical explanation for what’s happening and I’m not even confident in my own assumptions. But we’re seeing more and more signs that the leadership lacks a cohesive long-term strategy for the game’s development.

@HS_mathematics @Anthony_Tachi I want you to be right, but blizzard has lost the benefit of the doubt years ago.

@HS_mathematics This is dangerous.

@Anthony_Tachi @FlareIsGone Hearthstone still has a decent amount of stability left, but if the pet system fails, the long-standing monetization strategy might be completely reworked. Personally, I’m expecting some wild new experiments.

@FlareIsGone @HS_mathematics Layoffs is more Microsoft's style. Given Hearthstone's "Dark Horse" history, they may not pull the trigger immediately, as the game is still popular in the East (China), but layoffs to the point of taking it off Western market might be on the table.

@FlareIsGone @Anthony_Tachi They have more data on player resources and the impact on monetization. If the refund system had been causing significant harm to their revenue, they likely would have addressed the issue long ago. At the same time, it is foolish to underestimate the risks introducing a HUGE nerf

@FlareIsGone @Anthony_Tachi I see your point, and I’m sure they consider it a problem, but I doubt it’s what’s holding them back. Players who regularly buy pre-orders have tons of extra dust, yet it doesn’t stop them from purchasing packs. On top of that, the number of free rewards keeps increasing.