Hammerhead Intelligence

The polls and the market are now telling the same story. Polls: Peltola +5.5 (ASR March) Market: Peltola 60¢ "Experts": Lean R That 20-cent gap between market and forecast is the one of the largest on the Senate map. Our analysis on why: hammerheadintelligence.com/deepdives/2026…

@JacobRubashkin @InsideElections Looking dicey for GOP hold. We talk about the critical AK senatorial race in detail below. Would love feedback. Polymarket, polls, and broader voter mood all seem to be in lockstep at this point. hammerheadintelligence.com/deepdives/2026…

🚨BREAKING | New @InsideElections Senate ratings just dropped: North Carolina → Lean Dem Alaska → Lean Dem Minnesota → Toss-up Georgia → Tilt GOP Kentucky → Tilt GOP Mississippi → Tilt GOP Louisiana → Tilt Dem Maine → Likely GOP

@richardmarcj Talk about AK in detail below. Would love feedback. Polymarket, polls, and broader voter zeitgeist all seem to rowing in the same direction for DEM. hammerheadintelligence.com/deepdives/2026…

In this year's US Senate elections, Democrats need to hold all their current Senate seats (which includes Georgia) and gain four more from this list.

@OpenSourceZone The polls and the market are now telling the same story. Polls: Peltola +5.5 (ASR March) Market: Peltola 60¢ "Experts": Lean R That 20-cent gap between market and forecast is the one of the largest on the Senate map. Our analysis on why: hammerheadintelligence.com/deepdives/2026…

2026 Alaska Senate Race 🔵 Mary Peltola: 52.4% 🔴 Dan Sullivan: 47.6% Alaska Survey Research poll | 3/19-3/22

@Politics1com The polls and the market are now telling the same story. Polls: Peltola +5.5 (ASR March) Market: Peltola 60¢ "Experts": Lean R That 20-cent gap between market and forecast is the one of the largest on the Senate map. Our analysis on why: hammerheadintelligence.com/deepdives/2026…

AK USSEN (Alaska Survey Research) PRIMARY: Mary Peltola (D) 46% US Sen Dan Sullivan (R) 41% Others 13% GENERAL - ROUND 1: Peltola 49% Sullivan 44% Others 8% IRV FINAL ROUND: Peltola 52% Sullivan 48%

@USA_Polling Confirms what our deep dive suggests. Despite independent expenditures favoring Whatley at ~90:1, grassroots and general populace sentiment strongly with Cooper. hammerheadintelligence.com/deepdives/2026…

North Carolina - Senate Polling: 🔵 Cooper: 48% 🔴 Whatley: 34% YouGov / March 18, 2026

@IAPolls2022 Peltola moved from 42¢ to 60¢ in 30 days, a 43% increase in implied probability. But the expert consensus is still Lean R. Sullivan's approval: 36% approve, 47% disapprove. Trump AK approval: -15 net. Full breakdown with charts: hammerheadintelligence.com/deepdives/2026…

ALASKA POLL - Senate (final RCV round) 🟦 Mary Peltola: 52.4% 🟥 Dan Sullivan (inc): 47.6% —— Net Favs Peltola: (+7.2) Sullivan: (-10.7) Alaska Survey Research | 3/19-22

This is what @HammerheadIntel does. Polymarket pricing × polling data × FEC filings × RCV analysis × whale positions. 117 races tracked. Updated daily. 🦈 hammerheadintelligence.com/elections/

The number to watch: Peltola's first FEC filing. She raised $1.5M on day one. Her Senate committee is registered but has filed zero financial data. Sullivan has $4.8M raised and $5.8M cash on hand. When Peltola's numbers drop, we'll know whether the money matches the momentum.

🦈 NEW: The Last Frontier Flip Alaska's Senate race has the largest divergence on the 2026 map. Polymarket: Peltola 60% Experts: Lean R Gap: 20 cents One month ago Sullivan was the favorite. Not anymore. Full deep dive ↓ hammerheadintelligence.com/deepdives/2026…

@PollTracker2024 The polls and the market are now telling the same story. Polls: Peltola +5.5 (ASR March) Market: Peltola 60¢ "Experts": Lean R That 20-cent gap between market and forecast is the one of the largest on the Senate map. Our analysis on why: hammerheadintelligence.com/deepdives/2026…

Alaska Survey Research poll | 3/19-3/22 (Final RCV round) US Senate Alaska 2026 🟦Mary Peltola 52.4% (+1.6) 🟥Dan Sullivan 47.6% (-1.6) [incumbent] (Change from January)

@greendragonhq We dug into every $. Schwarzman $12M across 5+ races — SLF, CLF, MAGA Inc, Cornyn’s PAC, Collins’ PAC. Yass $55M - Club for Growth, V-PAC ($10M for Ramaswamy), school voucher PACs. Fairshake $193M COH - largest single issue PAC in America. hammerheadintelligence.com/deepdives/2026…

Billionaires are contributing vastly more money to Republican candidates. But yeah, the billionaires are on your side MAGA.

@ForwardCarolina @CatawbaCollege @RoyCooperNC @WhatleyNC Market confirming this sentiment as well. Cooper up to ~83% on Polymarket and Whatley at ~17% (down ~15% on a relative basis over past 7 days). Not good for GOP.

A second major poll just dropped this morning, and... well, maybe that one in the tweet below wasn't such an outlier after all. Out today from @CatawbaCollege: NORTH CAROLINA - U.S. SENATE: 🔵 @RoyCooperNC: 47% 🔴 @WhatleyNC: 31% ⚪️ Other/DK: 22% NC - CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC BALLOT: 🔵Democratic: 43% 🔴Republican: 38% ⚪️ Other/DK: 16% NC - STATE SUPREME COURT: 🔵Democratic: 43% 🔴Republican: 36% ⚪️ Other/DK: 19% TRUMP APPROVAL: (-13) STEIN NET APPROVAL: (+22) Support for U.S. military intervention in Iran: (-10) Conducted by @YouGov, March 9-18, 2026. N=1000 North Carolina residents. MoE 3.58%.

@OpenSecretsDC We built on your data to map a billionaire influence pipeline. Schwarzman appears in 5+ races on our dashboard. Yass funding primary challengers through Club for Growth while backing party infra through NRSC. Different donors, different strategies. hammerheadintelligence.com/deepdives/2026…

Chart of the Week: Since Citizens United in 2010, fewer outside spending groups fully disclose the source of their money. That reduces transparency around who funds political campaigns. Visit our site to learn more about super PACs and follow the money. opensecrets.org/outside-spendi…

@EleanorTerrett @DigitalChamber Related, Fairshake is the single largest outside spending entity in the 2026 cycle. Bigger than SLF ($100M COH), CLF ($54M), or AFP Action ($29M). We mapped every major PAC war chest and where the money is landing: hammerheadintelligence.com/deepdives/2026…

🚨NEW: Final Stablecoin Yield Text Expected as Clarity Act Talks Continue; Anchorage, Chainlink Back Hybrid PAC New stablecoin yield/rewards text could be imminent as @DigitalChamber members launch a new hybrid PAC amid crypto’s growing midterm push. ⬇️ cryptoinamerica.com/p/final-stable…

@4TaxFairness We dug into every dollar. Schwarzman: $12M across 5+ races — SLF, CLF, MAGA Inc, Cornyn’s PAC, Collins’ PAC. Yass: $55M — Club for Growth, V-PAC ($10M for Ramaswamy), school voucher PACs. Fairshake: $193M in cash — largest single-issue PAC in America. hammerheadintelligence.com/deepdives/2026…

BREAKING: 50 billionaire families have already spent over $433 MILLION influencing the 2026 midterms. 80% of the cash is going towards politicians and groups who will protect tax breaks for the wealthy and corporations. Tax the rich.

@hutchinson Alluded to this below. PPP's March survey has Talarico leading Cornyn 44-43 and Paxton 47-45 in general election matchups. Both Republicans are underwater on favorability while Talarico is at +6. We tracked the money, markets, and polls: hammerheadintelligence.com/deepdives/2026…

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