Daniel Cheung

A compilation of thoughts ⬇️

The Hyperliquid L1 trade is just beginning.

Perps eating global financial markets is the highest conviction thesis I’ve had in my 4 years since starting Syncracy. If we’re right, the sector could produce $350B+ in value over the next 5 years, with the winning chain becoming one of the largest platforms in global finance. As shared in our OG Hyperliquid thesis released over a year ago, we believe $HYPE is the fastest horse in this race. While many skeptics view platforms like Hyperliquid as products of regulatory arbitrage, over time we believe they will come to be understood as a fundamental transformation of the global trading stack. What was once a fragmented world of brokers, exchanges, clearinghouses, among other intermediaries, is giving way to integrated trading systems that are continuously margined, atomically settled, globally accessible, and permissionless to build on. The case isn’t just theoretical as early signs of disruption are already visible in the data. In the early months of perps’ “real world asset” expansion they’re already impacting global financial markets — most recently functioning as a price discovery engine on weekends for oil during the Iran conflict. We believe this is only the beginning and that perps will absorb an increasing share of leveraged directional trading that today lives in retail options, CFDs, and fixed-tenor futures. Even low single-digit penetration of these markets could produce dramatic outcomes for the sector. In parallel, it remains under-appreciated how quickly DEXs like Hyperliquid have emerged as leaders in equity and commodity perps. Should DEXs continue scaling these markets, it will accelerate their share gains from the likes of Binance and Coinbase while also positioning them to challenge legacy derivatives venues such as CME, who will struggle to compete due to regulatory and architectural incompatibilities. Finally, as decentralized venues lead the growth of perps, we believe they will also expand into adjacent categories. Perps are the hardest product to nail on blockchains and once a blockchain can successfully host perps it naturally starts to aggregate other crypto use cases as a byproduct. We are already seeing early evidence of this with Hyperliquid’s expansion into spot trading and stablecoins, and soon prediction markets and options. It’s in this sense that perpetual DEXs are also Trojan horses for the financial platform of the future. —— Enjoyed writing this one with @defi_monk who was the first sell-side analyst to cover Hyperliquid in summer 2024 and among the leading thinkers on the sector. Hope you all enjoy what is a very detailed and data-driven piece that was a long time in the making.

Believe we are just in the media attention phase for Hyperliquid right now. Parabolic price action comes next for HYPE. Much higher.

HYPE at $35 feels similar to SOL at $20 before its last cycle rally. Hyperliquid is currently the main chain where trading activity is happening and the only chain bringing new users into crypto right now given its offering around 24/7 markets. Bonus is Hyperliquid is gaining significantly more media attention and respect as use cases are centered around much more than dogshit memes. A HYPE induced bull market is coming. HYPE is the chosen one this cycle.

@L2_Pass I don’t think crazy. $4 billion in run rate rev at 30x. May not even need as much once this catches the L1 premium which I think it will.

@HighCoinviction bro cooked with the price target $120 sounds wild until it actually happens

HYPE to $120+ pretty easy once the crypto bull market comes back. We are close.

Becoming more clear by the day that Hyperliquid is the financial trading platform of the future and that generational wealth will be made longing this coin. Think this has a chance to flip Robinhood, Interactive Brokers etc… Hyperliquid is out innovating peers.

Have no doubt in my mind Hyperliquid will be the top coin of this next bull run. First time I’ve seen tradfi believe in something in this space for a long time since DeFi in 2021.

Ethereum is the substrate for AI.

Two things I’m confident crypto investors are missing right now: 1) $HYPE is the most exciting startup not in AI and will eventually flip COIN and HOOD 2) The perps category will be bigger than anyone expects and $LIT is criminally undervalued at 5% of HYPE w/ 10% of its fees

Shit about to get $LIT.

BTC down 15% IRYS up 10% IRYS > BTC ?

LIT is criminally undervalued at < 5% of HYPE.

@ThinkingUSD This is too low

There are massive, fundamental mispricings in the Crypto market

Pretty clean breakout on IRYS today. Think $1bn+ could be next.

@You_web33 Agreed think this could be big.

@HighCoinviction irys looking like a total beast