Inflexio Research

$OGD.TO reported good results with revenue +10% and EBITDA +13%. Importantly, Drill utilization hit its highest level in 2 years. The commentary is bullish with utilization rates expected to further improve, and seeing 'accelerated requests for proposals from junior exploration in canada' and expects 'minimal mobilization costs' to improve utilization Stock trades at 4x NTM EBITDA while peers are 10x in likely one of the biggest exploration boom seen in the last decade

$DAC steady as she goes... BVPS now $207. 100% contracted for 2026, 87% for 2027, and 64% for 2028. $76m buybacks for the year. Earnings has started to grow again and drybulk is becoming a real contributor to the bottom line. On the negative side, they've bought 5 new containership and 2 new drybulk ships + made a new LNG investment. Their capital allocation seem to be more speculative than in the past. Containership orderbook continues to run hot at 36% of the fleet but it likely will not impact them Big position for me so given the above, I will be taking some gain on the strength. However, they have likely returned to earnings growth and discount to BV remains substantial, so I think it likely keeps grinding higher

I've gotten some questions on $BRAG and what growth might be for 2026. The last hurdle to fully clean-up the story will be 2026 guidance. Given the exit of Betcity and the sensitivity of the guidance to the exit, it could swing many ways Should Betcity fully exit May 2025 with no extension or migration services revenue, I would expect Bragg to report revenue decline of -5% up to flat revenues. Anything beyond May and they likely grow. I don't assume any extraordinary new negative developments in their markets. EBITDA should be much better where I believe it can hit MSD growth. There is a chance Betcity extends the agreement beyond May given the World Cup happens 2 weeks after the agreement termination. Importantly, the company will be left trading under 3x EBITDA with a much better FCF conversion profile and no customer concentration (Betcity goes from 15% of revenue to 0%, and Netherlands from 30% to 15% overnight), while underlying trends are very positive In the meantime, there has been a bunch of positive developments: Alberta is finally going live later this year, Maine has approved iGaming and Caesars controls 3 of the 4 state licenses, and Bragg is overindexed to Caesars in the US 711, their second biggest customer, went live in Belgium with Bragg The company keeps podiuming in the Eilers top 20 online games report Given the dynamic above, I am sizing it accordingly, waiting for things to start playing out the way I think they should.

ICYMI: Virginia's online casino gaming legalization bill passed the Senate in a 19-17 vote yesterday; legislation must still pass the House, but a big step forward for legal iGaming

$DAC - Another quarter showcasing the crazy value... BVPS now $203. 95% contracted for 2026, 71% for 2027, and 49% for 2028. The company has effectively secured its earnings for the next decade and nobody seem to care. Slowly growing their drybulk business which has much better fundamental dynamics. Buybacks have picked back up, and the company confirmed on the call that they are still buying shares. Dividend riased from 85c to 90c. I would've liked to see a bigger increase, but oh well. People shitting on the company for renewing its fleet, but they seem to be doing it smartly.

I am long $OGD.TO - Orbit Garant They offer Drilling Services for gold and copper companies. 72% Canada, 28% International (Chile primarily) and 65% gold/30% copper approximately 65m market cap, 100m EV, $25M EBITDA estimated for 2026 or 4x EBITDA It's a pretty simple thesis - Gold/Copper prices are very strong which will support exploration. Equity raised globally for mining companies accelerated massively starting october (Q4) of 2025, doubling versus 2024... and has continued into Q1. Exploration usually picks up 6 months following significant financing rounds. They have heavy exposure to Juniors exploration (22% of revenue) which has yet to pick-up. The drillers have seen significant competitive pricing pressure over the last 24 months and as the market tightens, that should turn into a tailwind. OGD is at 55% utilization with a goal to reach 70% and has reached 80% in prior cycles. Management has already confirmed significant pick up in bidding activity in recent months and has been an active buyer of their stock. Closest peer, and juggernaut $MDI.TO trades at 10x EBITDA and is making new highs daily. MDI trades at over $1.6m EV per rig versus OGD at $540K EV/rig. MDI has been acquisitive in the past, most recently buying a LATAM drilling company for $115m for 92 rigs ($1.25m per rig). I believe OGD would be a clear acquisition target for MDI as they fit perfectly within their strategy (North America & LATAM focus + specialized drilling) and MDI is actively looking to consolidate the market to reduce competition and pricing pressure. Founder Alexandre Pierre remains on the board, and owns 20% of the shares outstanding. He is a known seller. Selling to MDI would make perfect sense to finally monetize his full stake. Clear path to $30m of EBITDA (and more) at 6x EBITDA, and assuming $30m of net debt, it would be a $3.75 stock