Inflexio Research

$DRX.TO CFO retiring on December 31st, and will remain a strategic advisor beyond that. Clearly an orderly retirement and I am not reading anything into it.

@everyonehatesp1 you're the GOAT hands down - congrats on the win

Closing the trade on $CGEH here at $11.5. First pitched it on X at around $2.5 and then full pitch came when stock was at $4.4 so up 160-360% depending on when you read it first. Giving myself room to re-engage at another time. I think I have a follower base of fairly smart investors who'll understand that binary outcome type stocks "will they win a DC?" can be great, but it's even better to make money before finding out the answer. From conversations I've had with and around the company, I don't get the sense that a DC win is imminent, I might be wrong, but I'd be worried of a Tecogen type situation where hype gets ahead of fundamentals. Entering new end markets takes time and a lot of iteration, I got a lot of confidence in Capstone's management team but the stock is starting to price A LOT of execution. When fast money comes in they come out fast as well. I am seeing a lot of retail hype, pitches with capital structures that are plain wrong (most don't even calculate the pref dilution or the PIPE), and various forms of mis-characterization. A big one I am seeing is all the mentions of hyperscale DCs when management has explicitly said they're more focused on tier 2/3 data centers. Can it go higher? 100%, and likely will, it's got momentum behind it, but I have to remain honest with myself. This was my largest position at $3.4, and I've seen how the market treats companies when things don't work out instantly. Well done to those who joined me and good luck to the ones who keep holding. And also big props to the management team for an outstanding job post chapter 11.

$DRX.TO Had the State of Defense procurement of Canada in their facility yesterday, at the same time as new F35 maintenance hangars were announced in Quebec. is it a coincidence? it would probably be a small contract but it showcases ADF's growing place in the defense ecosystem

I recently bought $DRX.TO - ADF Group, a Canadian fabricator of complex structural steel. They have 2 fabrication facilities in Quebec and 1 in Montana. The stock recently sold off on near-term margin noise tied to steel tariffs and their LAR acquisition, creating what I think is a really good entry point Why It's exciting: 1. Trades under 4x depressed EBITDA with a clean net cash balance sheet 2. Backlog has more than doubled in a year from $300m to $650M+, with strong bidding activity continuing. 3. Beneficiary of the "Build Canada" Thematic 4. A recent acquisition I believe will look like a no-brainer in hindsight ADF is one of the best-positioned names to play the 'Build Canada' theme. They stand to benefit from a wave of infrastructure spend: airports, Ontario nuclear, hydro expansion in Quebec, BC, and Newfoundland, and energy/industrial buildout in the west. A "Buy Canadian" mandate further improves their competitive position and will spur industria/constructionl projects Historically, they were 90% US, 10% Canada. However, with last year's tariffs, the company has aggressively pivoted its backlog which now sits at 60% Canadian and 40% US with a good chunk of the work segregated between the two countries. I expect Canada to make-up a bigger percentage of the mix overtime. The most exciting part of the story is the LAR Group acquisition. Historically, ADF Group did primarily industrial & commercial projects. Think airports, warehouses, bridges and some industrial plants. LAR was a distressed, over-levered steel fabricator for the hydro sector. A specific contract blew them up and ADF stepped in as the white knight through a reverse vesting order approved by the government. It allowed them to acquire LAR's assets while having all liabilities extinguished, BUT keeping all certifications intact. ADF is now certified to operate in both the hydro AND nuclear markets two of the most infrastructure-intensive sectors in Canada's near-term pipeline, in addition to potentially bidding for some of the big 'nation-building' projects the Canadian government has proposed. The near-term overhang: LAR is working through a tail of low-margin legacy projects, which weighed on Q4 results. LAR currently runs ~10% gross margins vs. ADF's mid-20s. Management doesn't expect margins to deteriorate further from here, but the meaningful inflection only comes in H2 2026 and into 2027, as ADF deploys ~$35M to automate LAR's facilities. LAR is understood to be the preferred vendor for virtually all Hydro-Québec projects and so I expect more work to come their way. And let's not forget the government of Quebec approved the CCAA proceeding at record speed. Clearly Hydro-Quebec was pretty desperate to have ADF acquire LAR group as there aren't many companies capable of doing that type of work. The second near-term overhang is the recent US steel tariff changes which puts a 10% tariff on the total value of steel transformed outside of US, but that uses US Steel. For some jobs, it made economical sense to ship US steel to Terrebonne and then ship it. It will impact their Q1/Q2 results, which caused last week's sell-off. The market is focused on near-term headwinds but It's missing the forest for the trees. Canada is entering one of the largest infrastructure build cycles in its history and ADF is one of a handful of Canadian companies capable of fabricating the complex steel structures these projects demand: => Hydro-Québec: $35–45B capex plan over the next decade => BC Hydro: $36B in regional investments over the next decade => Ontario & Atlantic provinces ramping hydro capacity => Ontario nuclear: plant refurbishments, SMRs, and Bruce Power expansion And none of that includes the 15 'nation-building' projects the federal government has fast-tracked or the hundred of projects that will emerge from Canada's defense spend goal of 5% of GDP. Despite the headwinds, the company expects to have stable gross margin, with a much bigger revenue number. There is a clear path here for the company to achieve 15% EBITDA margin on potentially over $500m of revenue which would get me to a target price of $17 at 6x EBITDA over the next 2-3 years.

$OGD.TO this is going to drive significant utilization and ultimately a big pricing tailwind for the drilling services cos....earnings have yet to move while valuation is completely undemanding

hats off to @_Flycatcher_ for the chart. We have yet to see these equity raise flowthrough to $OGD.TO

I am back into $OGD.TO after selling it late February. The recent pullback makes for an attractive entry point. I think momentum is materially picking up. Utilization is approaching 70%+ and pricing should start being a material tailwind. cheap (<5x ebitda) no ebitda numbers that could get wild. Still think it ultimately gets acquired. Target price remains $3.75

$BRAG Board Member Thomas Winter just filed his opening stock balance - he bought 250K shares prior to joining the board. Great vote of confidence. Industry juggernauts joins the board of a tiny cap. But clearly not the 1m share buyer from the CEO In other news... Alberta July 13

6/ given the depressed valuation, both financial and strategic parties would be interested. Matevz is a willing seller, and has been for a decade now. If they put up a few good Qs and show product momentum, this could easily sell for $5.00 USD + using 6x this year's EBITDA.

5/ When the board ran the strat review, I was of the opinion that the biz would not sell. Now, I think it will. The story has been cleaned up (FCF positive, no revenue concentration, multiple markets opening up, product momentum, legislative momentum), and...

1/ $BRAG Lots of good stuff happening under the surface. Betcity is now 15% of revenue, down from 45% at its peak 3 years ago! Meanwhile both Brazil & US now represent over 20% of revenue growing 40-50%+. Despite a big anticipated decline from Betcity exiting in May...

$BRAG - Reported Q4 results. More importantly, the co elected another big shot in the iGaming space, Thomas Winter. Founder of Golden Nugget, and prior CEO of Betclic, and board member of $RSI...Could he be the 1m share buyer from Matevz? I'll post more details on the Q itself

@christankerfund Contracted rates in the presentation for their drybulk sits at 16K, 16.8K and 20K...Their third tanker that was not contracted is now at 35K until july 27. Q2 earnings should be nicely higher than Q4/Q1

$PXS Q4 Nothing really note worthy in here. Q1 MR TCE will be about $3K higher than Q4, but Q1 bulk TCE will be down by $3.3K.

@christankerfund mid-size drybulks have crept higher in a pretty material way

Capesize end the week quiet at 24,200 FFAs up today $NMM $SBLK $BDRY $HSHP $CMBT $GNK $PANL $SB $SHIP

@GuyImpatient DM'ed you. would rather not discuss publicly

@InflexioSearch What's the new one?

I've fully exited $OGD.TO - I think it continues to move higher from here but looking to allocate capital in another high conviction idea. Still dirt cheap and cycle just getting started, but wanted to be transparent. congrats whoever joined!

I fully exited $DAC. I have been allocating to other shipping names that have more torque. Still think it works here given the undemanding valuation and a management team that is building a solid foundation to weather all storms, but happy to move on. Congrats to all who joined!