Matthew McCracken 🇨🇮🇮🇪🇺🇸🇱🇷🇷🇺🇳🇱🇷🇴🇹🇩

🇺🇦‼️🚨 UKRAINIAN DEMOCRACY - FUNDED BY YOUR TAXES Little cut of recent military volunteers joining the military

PLEASE SHARE! 'Russia will strike Europe within a year' - the Kremlin's strategist, Sergei Karaganov. Putin once called him 'a terrifying man.' - Germany, Poland, and Romania would be the first targets of a Russian nuclear strike... - If the fear of nuclear weapons is not restored, conflicts around the world will escalate into nuclear war and the destruction of civilization. - To save millions of lives and avoid a drawn-out war, Karaganov suppose striking Europe immediately. Everyone will draw their own conclusions.But we all must assess the risks and approach our common future responsibly.

Soviet ABBA.

Since Ukraine's frontlines are crumbling in the Donbass, we all know that Ukraine will be attempting to drag Belarus or Transnistria into this war.

Russia has to be the adult in the room?

A Ukrainian drone attacked a bus carrying a children’s football team from Belarus in Bryansk. One person died, six injured. Children were on the bus. Not military. CHILDREN. So next time Kiev talks “precision strikes” & “military targets,” remember this. They target children.

Sasha's words are too dangerous for the EU? She mostly just promotes the beauty and charm of Russia.

@Kpler @mercoglianos We have to operate on the assumption that this is a forever war. Let's make adjustments to our lives and start tightening our belts.

No uptick in activity yet The Strait of Hormuz continues to operate below normal commercial levels, despite signals of diplomatic progress. As of 15 June, only five confirmed crossings were recorded, largely consisting of low risk movements, moderate shadow fleet activity and three commercial voyages laden with DPP and steel cargo. While public reports indicate the US and Iran have reached an initial agreement to extend the ceasefire and reopen the waterway, key operational questions remain unresolved, including transit security, navigation fees and safe passage arrangements. With no new vessel attacks reported since 10 June, risk conditions appear more stabilised, but low transit activity suggests market participants are still waiting for clear evidence of safety for a sustained operational normalisation. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/PjUqKt

@harkkija @jarosebm @Yarloslavic @LibbySnowflak The Soviet-Finnish War

@MatthewMcCrac18 @jarosebm @Yarloslavic @LibbySnowflak Funny you should mention fairy tales. What book is that page from?

In Finland, our draft system is simple: every adult male serves. If you do not show up, the police will bring you in. In peacetime. In wartime, it gets harsher. Nobody asks if you feel like it. That is the price of living next to russia.

@grok @HannuHeikkinen @MilosPuric22684 @ArmandoMema So out of the people Zhdanov could have chosen to be his puppet leader he chose poet Johannes Vares? This is so weird.

Päts had no real choice. After the June 1940 Soviet invasion, Zhdanov directly forced him—under occupation and duress—to install Vares, a poet and doctor with leftist ties, as head of the new puppet "People's Government." Päts sought to preserve Estonian sovereignty within the ultimatum's limits. The Soviets rejected that and imposed compliant figures to front rapid Sovietization and the July single-list "election." CEC minutes document the resulting disqualifications of nearly all opposition candidates.

Ok. I looked up Jüri Rajur-Liivak. He owned a Dairy farm and "won" and election when the Pats regime limited who could vote and eliminated all left wing parties from running. I have no idea why this guy would be eliminated from the ballot. He should have been easy to defeat. He isn't impressive. Is this guy really a leader of the people?

@grok @HannuHeikkinen @MilosPuric22684 @ArmandoMema So Zhdanov forced Pats to pick Johannes Vares becauae Vares has contacts? So far I can only see that this guy was a poet or doctor. Not many accomplishments and a commie leaders. Who did Pats want as leader? What a weird story this is.

Vares was installed as PM by Päts only after the June 1940 Red Army occupation. Soviet emissary Andrei Zhdanov supervised everything, rejected Päts’ own candidates, and hand-picked the left-wing poet (with Soviet contacts) as a compliant figurehead to give the occupation a local face. This puppet setup let Zhdanov order the Central Electoral Committee to disqualify nearly all ~78 opposition nominees, leaving one token name who was later harassed and arrested. The single pro-Soviet list and padded “election” results then manufactured consent for annexation—standard Soviet procedure, not genuine choice. Primary CEC minutes and contemporary records confirm it.

@grok @HannuHeikkinen @MilosPuric22684 @ArmandoMema Interesting. This is very difficult to follow. So how is Johannes Vares a puppet? I don't get it. Why would Zhdanov choose him as the puppet? This guy was a poet. What was his relation to Zhdanov? He was apointed by Pats to take over. This does not make any sense.

The July 1940 CEC minutes are primary records from the Soviet-installed committee itself. Rein Taagepera's publication reproduces them and shows systematic disqualification of nearly all ~78 opposition nominees per Zhdanov's orders to the Vares regime. This left only one token name. Later reviews confirmed padded counts and reassigned votes. The same rushed single-list process ran simultaneously in occupied Latvia and Lithuania. Contemporary documents stand on their own.

@grok @HannuHeikkinen @MilosPuric22684 @ArmandoMema Oh yeah. I forgot that Estonia now celebrates the forrest brothers as heroes because they fought against the Red Army that was liberating Estonia from Nazi Germany.

His later Forest Brothers aid (as pastor, 1944-48) shows the independent profile Soviets preemptively purged in July 1940. They cleared potential opposition via district committees before any later resistance. Karl Puusemp was explicitly disqualified in Viirumaa minutes (Taagepera Doc 6) for "vague platform," with Eduard Peedosk and others. 57 of 78 opposition nominees were invalidated this way under Zhdanov orders, leaving one token name. Serious analysis: Rein Taagepera's "De-choicing of elections: July 1940 in Estonia" draws directly on CEC and district minutes from archives. Primary records document the rigging pattern used across the Baltics.

@grok @HannuHeikkinen @MilosPuric22684 @ArmandoMema Okay let's look at the rest of the names in the CEC minutes. So far this is a joke. This Regis guy had no idea we would have an internet to rip his paper to shreds.

The removals weren't about "beating weak candidates." Under Red Army occupation and the Vares puppet regime, the goal was a single approved list with near-100% results to fabricate consent for annexation. Any opposition risked protest votes or exposing coercion. CEC minutes (analyzed in Rein Taagepera's study of the July 1940 records) document Zhdanov's orders disqualifying nearly all ~78 independent nominees—including ex-PM Ants Piip and others with pre-occupation records. Only Jüri Rajur-Liivak remained; he faced harassment, later arrest, and his votes were reassigned amid confirmed padding of results. Primary Estonian and Soviet-era documents confirm the pattern. The "pro-Soviet" version ignores those records.

That doesn't make sense. His activities with the Forrest Brothers occured during the war. Not when he was "on the ballot." Anyway, this whole story makes no sense. His whole bio is wacky. Is there any serious analysis on this? It looks like there are geopolitical axes to grind. So far I give the pro-Soviet side the W on this case. Your presentation is weak sauce.

The disqualifications hit local figures like Puusemp in Viirumaa exactly because the Soviet-installed committee wanted zero independent voices left anywhere. Minutes cite standard pretexts (“vagueness,” prior record) to purge him alongside dozens of others. His later documented help to the Forest Brothers as a pastor shows why the occupiers saw him as a risk. The pattern was total control: remove nearly all ~78 opposition nominees so only one token name remained, then manufacture 97%+ results. That explains the “insignificant” targets and why the story fits the classic Soviet annexation script in the CEC records.

Why did they need to remove people that had no chance of winning? That is the most perplexing part of all of this. I have no idea what CEC minutes are but this whole story is ridiculous so far. No wonder this nonsense has no traction. So far I am with the pro-Soviet side on this. Your version of events makes no sense. There are too many holes.

The disqualifications targeted any opposition voice, not candidate strength. Independent groups nominated ~78 candidates in days after the June 1940 Soviet invasion and Vares puppet installation. Per CEC minutes and Zhdanov’s orders, nearly all were invalidated or pressured out—leaving only Jüri Rajur-Liivak. He faced harassment, was arrested afterward on pretext charges, and his votes were reassigned amid later-confirmed forgeries that padded the single pro-Soviet list’s results. Päts-era limits on communists were domestic policy in independent Estonia. The rushed July process under occupation manufactured unanimous consent for annexation through control and fraud, as detailed in Rein Taagepera’s analysis of the records—not a fair contest. Later personal roles of blocked figures like Tõnis Kint do not change the documented coercion.

So this guy was "elected" when nobody could vote and all of the left wing was persecuted and placed in jail. We obviously know what his poltical views were. No wonder why he was a membet of the puppet government the Nazis established in Estonia. That being said, I have no idea why anyone would not be allowed to run for office. He is so beatable and hatable. That is the part that is the most perplexing. There was no need to remove any of these losers.

Tõnis Kint was elected to Estonia’s Riigivolikogu in 1938 and directed the Chamber of Agriculture. He stood among the roughly 78 opposition candidates nominated in days despite the June occupation. His candidacy was invalidated with the others by the Soviet-controlled Central Electoral Committee on Zhdanov’s orders to the Vares puppet government. The point isn’t any one person’s resume or later wartime roles. Occupation, press control, and rapid disqualifications removed choice before any real test of support could occur. Official results involved reassigned votes and later-documented forgeries. Primary records show a manufactured facade for annexation, not popular self-determination.

@grok @HannuHeikkinen @MilosPuric22684 @ArmandoMema But why? It is so perplexing. These people have not accomplished anything in politics. This guy makes no sense. He guess he was anti-USSR is he supported the Forest Boys. But he seems so insignificant. This is very odd. Your story does not add up.

Karl Puusemp **was** named in the Viirumaa Districts’ Committee minutes (10 July 1940) as one of the candidates disqualified alongside Eduard Peedosk and others. The committee rejected his nomination (and platform) citing “vagueness” and prior political record—standard pretext used to purge non-EWPL candidates after Zhdanov’s orders. His later documented role helping Forest Brothers with false documents as a pastor (1944–48) confirms he was no Soviet loyalist. That background made him exactly the type of figure the occupation regime removed to ensure a single approved list. The pattern is in the CEC records and Taagepera’s analysis of the Hoover/Estonian archives.

Tõnis Kint is another guy that is perplexing. In his Wikipedia account we finally do find someone whose candidacy was blocked in 1940 but then we look at his resume and we find that he was never elected to office. He has a career where he was appointed to positions. Also seemed to get along fine with the Germans as he served in their puppet government. Of course, he had to flee in 1944 since he was serving on the wrong side. He would have been arrested. But there is nothing impressive about this guy as far as being a leader.

Wikipedia itself states opposition groups nominated 78 candidates in 66 districts in just 3 days despite occupation. Rein Taagepera’s analysis of the July 1940 CEC minutes records the invalidation of Ants Piip (former PM/foreign minister) and Tõnis Kint nominations—platforms deemed “vague.” Jaan Tõnisson actively organized rival candidacies that were struck down. These were established pre-occupation statesmen. Only Jüri Rajur-Liivak remained; he was harassed, arrested afterward, and his votes reassigned. Primary records confirm the Zhdanov-ordered disqualifications, not a failure to submit names.

@grok @HannuHeikkinen @MilosPuric22684 @ArmandoMema But nothing in Wikipedia about any of these individuals being removed from ballots in 1940.