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Market Insights Forum NYC | Key takeaways Industry leaders came together in NYC to discuss the forces reshaping global commodity and shipping markets — from geopolitical tensions to evolving #energy dynamics. Key takeaways included: ◾Tanker markets at a crossroads: Hormuz risk, shadow fleets, and the Jones Act ◾The #LNG curveball: balancing oversupply expectations with structural shifts in European gas and power markets ◾Disruption across #grain and fertiliser trade flows ◾The global impact of a potential Strait of Hormuz closure Watch the video featuring insights from Min Lee, Customer Success Team Lead at Kpler; Court Smith, Principal Analyst at Kpler; and Reid l’Ansonn Senior Commodity Analyst at Kpler. Thank you to everyone who joined the conversations and shared valuable insights throughout the forum.

Policy holds the key China’s #crude appetite remained weak in April, with imports falling sharply as Beijing directed refiners to prioritise transport fuels over chemicals while tightening refined product export controls. Although the strategy has helped safeguard domestic fuel supply, milder transportation fuel demand, compounded by the above-mentioned factors, resulted in a rapid build-up in #gasoline and diesel inventories, reducing incentives to raise refinery runs. A meaningful recovery in crude demand now hinges on policy direction. Beijing could relax export controls or allow refiners to optimise economically without forcing them to maximise transportation fuel output. Until then, Chinese crude buying is likely to remain capped. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/puDgNr

Jet A loophole tested Europe’s decision to permit Jet A into the Jet A-1 supply pool reflects the severity of current aviation #fuel stress rather than a structural market shift. With falling inventories and US to Europe jet flows at record levels, regulators have prioritised supply flexibility ahead of the summer travel season. However, downstream infrastructure, contamination risks, chain of custody requirements and Jet A’s higher freezing point create operational limits, particularly for long haul and polar routes. If disruption to Middle East supply flows extends into winter, the current framework is unlikely to be sufficient. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/LxkG4Y

Hormuz reopening falls short The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would mark the start of recovery for Middle East refiners, not a rapid return to normal. Regional #refinery runs dropped to about 6 mbd in April, down roughly 3 mbd year on year, and are expected to remain below pre-war levels for months. Export bottlenecks, storage constraints, insurance frictions and refinery damage mean throughput recovery will likely unfold in stages, with Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait facing the slowest path back. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/r4umxl

🇧🇷 We're coming to São Paulo Join Kpler on May 14 for the Kpler São Paulo Market Update, where our experts will explore how Middle East disruptions are impacting Latin American energy markets, from Brazil's #oil boom and Venezuela's market recovery to the sanctions effects reshaping global commodity flows. Walk away with sharper market intelligence, stronger connections, and a clearer view of Brazil's #energy future. Event Details: 🗓️ Thursday, May 14, 2026 🕡 6:30pm - 10:30pm 📍 Praça São Lourenço, São Paulo Register: okt.to/jKky1m

Europe’s gas & power markets may be underestimating Summer 2026 risk. At Kpler’s London Gas & Power Briefing, Ronald Pinto, Principal Analyst – Gas & LNG, Kpler Insight, and Alessandro Armenia, Power Analyst, shared insights on LNG supply constraints, gas volatility, renewable overcapacity, and #nuclear flexibility challenges shaping European power markets heading into Q3. Key takeaways: ⚡ Gas remains a major driver of European #power prices ⚡ #LNG market balances have tightened significantly in 2026 ⚡ Renewable growth is increasing balancing complexity and curtailment risk ⚡ Storage recovery remains vulnerable to geopolitical and weather-related risks ⚡ Flexibility will remain critical across European markets this summer Thanks to everyone who joined us in London.

Venezuela crude rejoins markets Venezuelan #crude exports climbed to a seven-month high above 1.05mn b/d in April, more than double January levels, as a new licensing framework. The US imported 400,000 b/d and India 384,000 b/d, with Merey demand strengthening and Europe re-entering the trade. Rising production, storage-led redistribution through the Caribbean and renewed interest from major international companies suggest Venezuela is moving from short-term recovery toward structural reintegration. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/xdVygb

Asia’s oil reroute Asia’s four largest Hormuz exposed crude buyers are moving beyond emergency mitigation. China and India secured roughly 90% of average imports in April through substitutions and bypass routes, while Japan and South Korea relied more on strategic reserves. In May, procurement is shifting towards Oman, Yanbu, Fujairah and the Atlantic Basin, including a fivefold rise in Japan’s expected US Gulf Coast intake. The next challenge is not only volume, but grade compatibility. 🖋️ @Yui_torikata Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/g5MFo1

Kpler is growing fast — and so is the way we show up. Together with Italian label @ezeta , we’ve created a trio of limited-edition shirts inspired by our DNA: fast, confident, and fierce. Designed to stand out — just like the people behind the company. Because that mindset isn’t just a campaign. It’s how Kpler operates. If that resonates, come build with us ➡️ shorturl.at/VSS3x

The QatarEnergy-operated Q-Flex tanker Mesaimeer has ended two months of idling in the Arabian Sea by moving to Oman’s Qalhat terminal to load #LNG. The vessel is the first QatarEnergy-operated tanker to load outside the Strait of Hormuz since the Middle East conflict began on Feb. 28. Her move highlights how Qalhat’s location on Oman’s eastern coast offers a rare export route that avoids Hormuz, while most laden Qatari vessels remain stranded at or near Ras Laffan. Kpler data show Mesaimeer is expected to load 209,714 cubic metres, though her destination is unclear. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/UupjES

Strait of Hormuz | Daily Vessel Crossings As of 30 April, Hormuz crossings halved d/d to seven transits, split between four commercial and three non-commercial movements, with direction broadly balanced at four west-to-east versus three east-to-west. Only two laden west-to-east crossings were recorded, under Pakistani and Comoros flags carrying CPP and dry bulk, while higher-risk tonnage remained limited with just three shadow or sanctioned vessels observed and the rest assessed low-risk. No new physical attacks have been recorded since 22 April as the ceasefire holds, and with permissive passages continuing, most vessels are still using the IMO-regulated traffic separation scheme to reduce collision risk. Stay ahead of market-moving risks with #Kpler’s Risk & Compliance tracker. okt.to/uPaUbn

A quick look back at our latest webinar, Markets in Motion: UAE, OPEC, and the cross-commodity outlook — with a sneak peek of Laura Page (Insight Manager, LNG & Natural Gas at Kpler). From the UAE’s exit from OPEC to shifting quota dynamics and evolving trade flows, our experts unpacked what it all means for global energy markets. Speakers included: Amena Bakr, Matt Stanley, Naveen Das, Ishan Bhanu, Panagiotis Krontiras, and Laura Page. Key discussions covered: ◾UAE’s production strategy post-OPEC ◾Ripple effects across OPEC+ ◾Oil, gas, LNG & tanker market signals ◾Emerging trade flow shifts and market drivers Missed it? Stay tuned for more insights shaping the week ahead: okt.to/v5tfqg

Strait of Hormuz traffic remains tightly constrained As of 29 April, 12 vessel crossings were recorded (+4 d/d), all moving west–east, continuing the pronounced directional imbalance with no return traffic observed. Activity remains below the highs seen earlier this month, pointing to a cautious but steady flow through the Strait. Among them: ◾2 sanctioned vessels ◾1 shadow ballast transit ◾9 low-risk, predominantly non-tanker transits No material escalation in physical threats, but transit behaviour continues to reflect a controlled and selective operating environment. Dry bulk cargoes such as steel, cement and clinker dominated flows, signalling a continued shift away from tanker-led movements. Access remains sensitive to broader geopolitical dynamics, with daily fluctuations reflecting caution rather than a full recovery. Note: Figures may be subject to minor revisions due to ongoing data validation and backfill. Stay ahead of market-moving risks with #Kpler’s Risk & Compliance tracker. okt.to/ybaDVG

Oil market rebalances under strain Sixty days into the Strait of #Hormuz disruption, flows remain near minimal levels, down from about 20 Mbd to close to 1 Mbd in April. The market response has centred on supply curtailments and refinery run cuts, supplemented by modest rerouting, early demand erosion and inventory drawdowns. These measures are redistributive rather than additive, underscoring limited system flexibility. While a gradual recovery may begin from June, the rebalancing is incomplete, leaving the global oil market tighter and increasingly reliant on inventories and demand adjustment. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/ja4Xfn

Strait of Hormuz traffic remains tightly constrained As of 28 April, 7 vessel crossings were recorded (+1 d/d), still at depressed levels. Activity remains selective, led by shadow fleet tonnage, with just 2 low-risk vessels and mostly west–east commercial flows. No new physical attacks since 22 April, but mine risk and active enforcement continue to limit transit confidence. Owners face a dual risk: navigational hazards and sanctions exposure. Mobility remains cautious, with no clear recovery in flows. Stay ahead of market-moving risks with Kpler’s Risk & Compliance tracker: okt.to/6Mlp78

Markets in Motion: UAE, OPEC, and the cross-commodity outlook Date and time: Thursday 30 April 07:00 EDT | 12:00 BST | 13:00 CEST | 15:00 GST Speakers: @Amena__Bakr, Matt Stanley, Naveen Das, Ishan Bhanu, Panagiotis Krontiras and Laura Page UAE exits OPEC: Ramifications in full | 12:00pm - 12:45pm BST ◾What the exit means for UAE production targets and output strategy ◾How quota dynamics shift for remaining OPEC+ members ◾Longer-term implications for OPEC cohesion and market structure ‍What's moving markets this week | 12:45pm - 13:30pm BST ◾Oil and gas: the week's standout moves and what's driving them ◾Over 40 loaded fertiliser vessels still bottled up in the Gulf ◾Dry cargoes diverting to Chabahar as an alternative to Iran's Gulf ports ◾Fresh trade flow signals across LNG and tankers ◾Themes and signals shaping the week ahead Register now: okt.to/qxoF20

Hormuz shift reshapes oil balance Fresh tanker crossings through the Strait of #Hormuz point to a tentative easing in disruptions, yet the global oil system has already adjusted. Around 4 Mbd of crude has been durably rerouted via Saudi and #UAE pipelines, lowering the effective rebalancing threshold to roughly 11 Mbd. At the same time, the UAE’s exit from #OPEC signals potential fragmentation within the group and a shift towards higher independent production. Together, these dynamics indicate a more flexible supply outlook further ahead, even as near term logistics constraints persist. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/EUjfM4

The UAE has announced it will leave #OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, marking a notable shift in its long term energy strategy. @Amena__Bakr , Head of Middle East Energy and OPEC+ at Kpler, provides analysis on the drivers behind the decision and its broader implications for #oil markets. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: kpler.com/solution/marke…

Strait of Hormuz traffic remains tightly constrained. As of 27 April, just 6 vessel crossings were recorded (+2 d/d), all moving west–east and split evenly between commercial and non-commercial activity. Among them: • 2 laden sanctioned vessels (steel & LPG) • 1 shadow vessel • Remaining low-risk transits No new physical attacks since 22 April, but mobility through the Strait is still highly selective and closely tied to wider geopolitical negotiations not maritime conditions alone. Access remains uncertain as Iran proposes a new negotiation plan, with d/d crossings reflecting caution rather than much recovery. Stay ahead of market-moving risks with Kpler’s Risk & Compliance tracker. okt.to/EXt5uW