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Costlier nitrogen-based fertiliser impacts US spring planting The disruption of urea and ammonia exports via the Strait of Hormuz has driven the price of nitrogen-based #fertiliser higher, influencing upcoming US spring planting decisions. In contrast to soybeans, #corn requires the application of nitrogen-based fertiliser, so more farmers are likely to opt for soybeans to control input costs after another year of challenging margins. A larger swing into #soybean acreage on the year would raise US dependence on soybean sales to China during the 2026/27 marketing year, keeping the soybean market volatile and dependent on politics.  For further insight, sign up to Kpler’s grains webinar next Tuesday, 24 March: okt.to/mWDzc8

Understanding systematic CTA flows & their evolving influence on commodity markets Systematic CTA strategies are playing an increasingly important role in #commodity markets, influencing liquidity, volatility, and the speed of price moves. Join Andrea Santiago and Jack Nealon for a webinar exploring how these strategies work, how positioning shifts through market cycles, and why understanding systematic flows is becoming essential in today’s more complex market environment. 👉 Session 1 10:00 EDT | 14:00 GMT: okt.to/Erzm59 👉 Session 2 14:30 EDT | 18:30 GMT: okt.to/mATX35

March 19, 2026: Gulf energy conflict widens A broader Gulf #energy shock is now taking shape. Reported missile and drone attacks have struck sites in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar, while a vessel was hit near Ras Laffan, adding to fears over supply security and maritime transit. The damage to #LNG and refining assets, combined with discussion in Washington over expanded military options, signals a conflict increasingly tied to global energy infrastructure. Markets have responded sharply, with Brent topping $113 a barrel and European gas climbing 30 per cent to €70.7/MWh, a reminder that geopolitical escalation is now feeding directly into prices, trade flows and investor nerves. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/jnrcIG

Qatar LNG hub strikes escalate risk Missiles struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City yesterday and today, hitting several LNG facilities at the 77 mtpa Ras Laffan export complex — the world’s largest LNG hub — and causing extensive damage. The attacks follow a drone strike on Mar. 2 that forced a temporary production halt. The strikes come amid #LNG exports that have effectively stopped since Mar. 1 due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has stranded vessels on both sides and disrupted flows from Qatar and Abu Dhabi, together accounting for roughly 20% of global LNG supply. The attacks occurred after Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field — a reservoir shared with Qatar’s North Field — raising concerns not only about continued damage at Ras Laffan but also potential impacts on Qatar’s expanding LNG output and broader regional energy security. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/hkMPtB

Refiners hit by export bottlenecks The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly defined by downstream pressure rather than #crude shortages. Gulf refiners are reducing utilisation as refined products struggle to exit the region, creating storage constraints and forcing operational adjustments. More than 2.5 mbd of run cuts have emerged, with potential to rise further. Export dependent systems such as Kuwait and Bahrain remain most exposed, while regional outages and delayed restarts compound uncertainty. If bottlenecks continue, global product balances, particularly middle distillates, are likely to tighten further. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/b6g3dt

Iran exports show resilience Kpler data suggests Iran’s #oil export system remains resilient after reported strikes on Kharg Island. Satellite imagery and vessel tracking show infrastructure intact and loadings holding near 1.46 Mbd, broadly in line with historical norms. Floating storage has eased from recent highs, signalling normalisation rather than disruption, while China continues to anchor demand across Asia-bound routes. At the same time, Kpler data shows Jask inventories at a record high, reinforcing the view that Tehran is positioning barrels outside the Strait of Hormuz as a contingency buffer. The system is stable for now, but its concentration around Kharg and continued Gulf exposure leave global oil balances vulnerable to any further escalation. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/uGTxZF

Global oil markets under pressure: Inside the US–Iran supply shock Day 19 of the US–Iran conflict and the impact on global energy markets is intensifying. From mounting disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to significant supply shut-ins, we are witnessing one of the largest supply shocks in history. With nearly 20 million barrels per day affected and limited global spare capacity, the implications for oil markets are profound. In this video, @Amena__Bakr, Head of Middle East Energy & OPEC+ at Kpler, breaks down what’s happening on the ground, what it means for supply, and why current price levels may not yet reflect the full extent of the disruption. Watch her latest insights below.

🌾 Middle East conflict: Food security and grains trading implications A Strait of Hormuz blockade is disrupting fertiliser supply for major agricultural producers, cutting off container terminal access, and deepening food insecurity for vulnerable countries. Join our latest webinar as Kpler analysts break down how to navigate #corn, #soybean, and #wheat markets in 2026.  Key topics include: ◾ Food security: Immediate concerns in the region due to the Hormuz blockade ◾ Fertiliser trade: Middle East conflict impacts on production costs and affected crops ◾ US-China soybean trade: What current flows signal for 2026 corn and #soybean acreage ◾ South America: Brazil's soybean harvest pace and its impact on exports and safrinha corn planting ◾ Wheat: Market response and potential demand issues next year ◾ Market drivers: Key signals shaping grain markets for the month ahead 👉 Register here: okt.to/EV6JIz

Tensions rise, fuel demand falls Geopolitical tensions are beginning to ripple through fuel markets, with refiners across Asia-Pacific adjusting operations as uncertainty persists around the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Hear Esteban Moreno Cots, Lead Analyst, Refined Products Demand, unpack what this could mean for demand in the latest video. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/1wek59

Hormuz GPS disruption continues GPS interference in and around the Strait of Hormuz has continued to rise since the crisis began, suggesting a persistent and geographically dispersed campaign of electronic disruption. This interference is triggering false AIS positioning, causing ships to appear in locations where they are not. For operators and analysts, that means greater uncertainty around vessel tracking, maritime safety and the reliability of situational awareness in one of the world’s most strategically significant waterways.

Shadow fleet gets temporary relief A short term US waiver on enforcement of Russian #oil sanctions is allowing cargoes loaded before 12 March to complete delivery by 11 April, clearing a backlog of vessels waiting offshore. The move is expected to lift shadow tanker utilisation by roughly 10 to 20 per cent as loitering after sea, particularly bound for Indian refiners, finally discharge. Yet the policy shift does not alter the broader sanctions architecture.The majority of Russian crude exports move outside of the G7 price cap system and rely on shadow fleet logistics and non Western maritime services. As long as this structure persists, Russian barrels are likely to continue flowing to India for refining before re entering global fuel markets, keeping compliance risk embedded along the supply chain. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/dLBnMl

First non Iranian cargo through Hormuz As the US Iran conflict enters its third week, vessel tracking data suggests limited movement is cautiously resuming through the Strait of Hormuz. The Aframax Karachi, carrying Abu Dhabi’s Das #crude, became the first non Iranian cargo to transit the chokepoint while broadcasting its #AIS signal. The vessel took an unusual route through Iranian territorial waters, indicating that negotiated safe passage may be allowing select shipments to leave the Gulf. More than 20 long range tankers have now exited the strait, though many still rely on dark transits. The developments suggest a fragile and highly controlled reopening of one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/7MVo1l

Southeast Asia’s oil shock  Southeast Asian economies are confronting a sharp energy shock after Middle Eastern crude and product flows through the Strait of Hormuz effectively stopped. With around 1.8 Mbd of crude and roughly 500 kbd of refined products previously moving into the region, alternative barrels from the US, Nigeria, Australia and Brazil remain far from enough. Refinery runs are falling across key markets as #crude supply disruptions tighten availability, inventories are set to be drawn down, and governments are already imposing fuel-saving measures. The episode lays bare the region’s vulnerability to concentrated supply routes and the high cost of limited energy buffers. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/l5H4dV

US waiver clears Russian cargoes A narrow US waiver covering Russian crude and refined products loaded before 12 March appears designed to clear cargoes already at sea rather than stimulate fresh demand. The measure, which expires on 11 April, primarily allows vessels already underway to discharge. Kpler estimates around 80 million barrels of Russian #crude remain in transit, with about 30 million barrels signalling India and roughly 31 million heading towards China. Market activity suggests most cargoes had already been placed before the waiver, including recent Indian purchases of Urals crude. European participation remains unlikely, as EU sanctions continue to prohibit imports of Russian petroleum products and related services. The result is a logistical unwind rather than a structural shift in global crude flows. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/NiLrSZ

Insight from Homayoun Falakshahi, Head of Crude Oil Analysis at Kpler: The effectiveness of a potential 400M barrel IEA release will depend on timing, delivery logistics, and stock composition — not all barrels can immediately replace disrupted refinery supply.

Dark exits, Gulf bottleneck The latest vessel tracking points to a more complex picture than market rumours suggest. While at least 15 laden #oil and chemical tankers may have slipped out of the Mideast Gulf with #AIS switched off, the broader story is one of mounting congestion. Laden inventories roughly doubled from typical pre war levels, and fresh ballast capacity has all but dried up. That leaves the majority of vessels effectively trapped, with dark transits offering only limited relief to a system still under acute strain. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/ZGt29l

China’s oil buffer tested China’s #oil inventories remain a meaningful short term shield against the latest Middle East supply shock, but pressure is building. With Oman’s Mina Al Fahal port shut, Russian Urals cargoes largely absorbed by India, and ESPO premiums rising sharply, Chinese refiners face a tougher supply picture and potential run cuts. Estimated #crude stocks of up to 1.3bn barrels buy time, yet not certainty. If disruptions persist and prompt arrivals remain scarce, Beijing may be pushed to release reserves sooner than markets expected. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/0gmhFL

Day 12 of the conflict – market volatility continues. Kpler’s Head of Market Engagement, Matt Stanley, shares a quick update on the latest developments shaping global energy markets. Key topics covered:   ◾ Continued attacks across the Middle East and the impact on regional stability ◾ The IEA’s landmark agreement to release up to 300 million barrels of #oil ◾ Extreme price volatility, with Brent swinging between $80 and $120 in recent sessions ◾ Ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and potential US naval involvement With headlines moving rapidly and markets reacting in real time, staying informed is more important than ever. 🎥 Watch Matt’s latest update and keep following Kpler for timely insights and upcoming webinars as the situation evolves.

Gulf shipping reroutes resulting from Operation Epic Fury More than 80 containerships were en route to the Persian Gulf the day before Operation Epic Fury. In the immediate aftermath, vessel numbers declined drastically as shipping lines diverted traffic toward ports across the Indian Ocean. Only few vessels continue to wait for an opportunity to enter, reflecting a cautious approach rather than a full withdrawal. Future port calls scheduled at Jebel Ali suggest some carriers are keeping the option of returning once conditions stabilise. In the meantime, the diversion of cargo is likely to shift pressure elsewhere in the network. Congestion levels are expected to rise at key transshipment and gateway ports, including Khor Fakkan, Mundra and Nhava Sheva (Jawaharlal Nehru), as redirected containers begin to accumulate in terminal yards.

Hormuz shock hits refiners Security incidents at major Gulf refining hubs, including a drone attack at the Ruwais complex in Abu Dhabi, are compounding the market shock created by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Export disruptions, storage constraints and operational outages are pushing Middle Eastern refiners to reduce #crude intake, while Asian plants reliant on Hormuz crude are cutting runs amid feedstock uncertainty. Current estimates suggest #refinery throughput could fall by about 3.1 mbd in the Middle East and 3.3 mbd across Asia during March. Run cuts are beginning to tighten global distillate balances, with diesel and jet supply expected to face the largest near-term pressure. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/AvXq04