terry retweetet
Investors watching a shoe company attempt to pivot into AI compute infrastructure
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terry
114 posts
terry
@NonTargetTerry
Permabear trying to be long (probably short tho). Not financial advice
Omaha, NE Beigetreten Eylül 2018
552 Folgt76 Follower
terry retweetet
terry retweetet
This is downright freaky.
From Feb '25 - Mar 31, the SPX was down 9%, & closed on the JPM 5,565 Put on 3/31
Then came April 2nd "Liberation Day". The SPX subsequently dropped 10%
2026: SPX -6% from Feb, rallying to the JPM put.
Trump speaking on the war tonight, 4/1 at 9PM
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terry retweetet
Someone just DM’ed me this:
The most wild thing I have seen.
Lol!
But seriously, hope Tiger is ok.
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terry retweetet
I was in a 2 hour briefing today on the Iran War. All the briefings are closed, because Trump can't defend this war in public.
I obviously can't disclose classified info, but you deserve to know how incoherent and incomplete these war plans are.
1/ Here's what I can share:
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terry retweetet
While we will eventually correct, it will because we change how we invest.
The era of mean reverting strategies began to fail in 1975 with the introduction of passive investing. By the 1990s, just as academics began to tout the historical outperformance of a statistical mean reversion theory (“value”), the growing popularity of passive investing changed the markets.
In 2006, the federal government passed legislation that locked us into this structure. The markets no longer “mean revert.” They are momentum and concentration algorithms.
And they will run until they stop. Violently.
The Economic LongWave@TheELongWave
139% Above Its Mean. Every Prior Peak Collapsed." This is the Q Ratio — the broadest measure of US stock market valuation vs. the replacement cost of assets. Right now? 139% above its long-run average. We just touched 147% — above the 3 Standard Deviation line. Here's what history shows every single time this chart got extreme: 1929 peak → -64% 1937 peak → -64% 1968 peak → -65% 2000 dot-com peak → bottomed at -18% (cushioned by Fed intervention) Mean reversion isn't a theory. It's the most reliable pattern in 120 years of market data. The arithmetic mean is 0.84. We are not at 0.84. Markets don't stay at 3 standard deviations. They never have. The only question is timing! Source: VettaFi / Advisor Perspectives — February 2026
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@heynavtoor Appreciate the prompts and it all seems logical/helpful, but what're your returns since you've implemented these? Are you running a unique portfolio for each of these Claude strats?
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terry retweetet
The S&P 500 has been a sedative for two months. Software is the most hated trade in the market right now. That's exactly why it's about to lead.
What if the real risk is up?
lordfed.co.uk/p/why-the-flat…
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terry retweetet
China and Irish tax avoidance are more or less is the entire global goods surplus; the EU's surplus goes away without Ireland, and China now dominates goods trade*
* (Korea & Taiwan contribute, but not on the same scale)
1/
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terry retweetet
Important article. As more and more economists and policymakers begin to realize that large, persistent trade imbalances are indeed a problem for the global economy, Martin Wolf calls for a tax on capital inflows. ft.com/content/e2c8c6…
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@dampedspring Don’t understand logic, I am afraid. @dampedspring
Tax cuts will add to deficits.
No significant DOGE savings.
No significant revenues from tariffs.
I see significant increase in deficits for foreseeable future - wouldn’t markets demand higher yields?
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Perhaps I should share my priors.
I start every day with an assumption that our elected leaders will ALWAYS kick the pain can down the road. Increasing the deficit is and always will be the bipartisan agenda. To think otherwise is dangerous and naive.
The Fed will ALWAYS favor financial stability over their other mandates which will enable the elected leaders.
Those are my priors.
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Think of trend/CTA strats right now as the Evergreen ship stuck in the suez canal. with random houthis showing up out of nowehere firing rockets at it non stop.
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terry retweetet
terry retweetet
@KevinTartis @michaelxpettis @markets It’s my understanding most EM economies have needed to have a strong mfg sector to grow the middle class in their path to developing. India had previously tried to skip this step by focusing on tech, so this could actually be a positive to reduce inequality as mfg supplies jobs.
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@michaelxpettis @markets They making the same mistakes china made
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According to Bloomberg, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to transform India’s economic model into one driven by manufacturing rather than consumption, are creating a tailwind for infrastructure and heavy-industry companies."
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @markets
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@Mike_Taylor1972 how we feelin on PCT? Am I buying low (for very LT) or averaging in a loser?
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@Mike_Taylor1972 What do you make of using the warrants ( $PCTTW ) to invest in $PCT?
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$PCT: It was right there in plain sight. The fluidic math around the PP5 refiner (bc it is a refiner) showed it should produce “at scale” quickly (few have done the math).
What is “at scale”? I would encourage them to do the work to find out
I am Not here for JUST a 10x return
DS, U.E.@madcap_cap
@WinstonV99 @_dpgibson @agnostoxxx @GNWZ02 @Mike_Taylor1972 well now we know!! $PCT purecycle.com/blog/purecycle…
Ohio, USA 🇺🇸 English