Rev Cap

Warsh says wassup

@MaximusCap_ @eliant_capital The yields will go down

@MaximusCap_ @eliant_capital It will go down

Waller says stop your “peak hawkishness” nonsense

@eliant_capital In the bond market yes

@rev_cap Well that is the consensus

@eliant_capital Still hiking this year. Just a question of which meeting

@rev_cap You were saying?

83% of equity investors don’t know how to look at the 2 year treasury yield

@tylermacro10 @WarrenPies It could be the subsequent meeting but it’s one of the next two I feel pretty comfortable being more hawkish than consensus unless some huge data surprise event on unemployment or inflation

@rev_cap @WarrenPies V bold call

June CPI is shaping up to be pivotal (Waller speech). Here are a couple things to watch tomorrow morning: 1) What happens w/ Airfare + Logging? These have been two big contributors to core cpi recently. 2) Watch where the Core CPI Index lands relative to consensus (336.93).

@WaterworldCapi1 @Kente_Clarke Semis blow off top on the timeline Perfectly timing this Not all heroes wear capes

@Kente_Clarke We had what I would call a blow off top in semis in June. Maybe they will take off again after a couple weeks of trading down but...I would characterize the cycle as much more close to peak than trough. I know infinity AI cycle and all...

There are now some amazing opportunities in semis to buy into YE. Several names that I see 100% or higher upside. Use this time to sharpen your pencils, pick your best trades, and how to structure them. Be greedy when others are fearful.

@jukan05 Where is analyst #3?!?

The damn Strait of Schrödinger is closed again.

@go_for_jugular @unciacapital This all takes time to get priced in but I believe the weak fed era has ended after a long / painful 5 years of Powell making up transitory nonsense And the expression is flattener

@go_for_jugular @unciacapital I actually think the flattener is finally coming in a very big way so we agree The steepener curve is a weak fed trade. My view is the weak fed era is in the process of ending and we’ll see a flattening or even an inversion depending how much warsh pushes when we turn into 27

Starting w/ the 3 month yield, the entire U.S. yield curve is ABOVE the upper end of the Fed Funds target rate (3.75%). Usually the yield curve gets it right and the Fed follows. Basically, yield curve is saying hike incoming (timing uncertain); would also explain why gold $GLD has been weak. CPI & PPI this week will be interesting. I am biased to think rates go higher this year.

Holy smokes

@BobEUnlimited Bob how can you think earning estimates are too high but also that inflation will be lower than expected

The Global Downside Inflation Surprise Inflation globally has remained remarkably subdued despite the recent surge in oil prices. Peak price increases are behind us pretty much everywhere even as US markets price peak hawkishness. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-global-d…

@RickPalaciosJr Haha Rick they are not as informed with data as you are One could say they may not even consider data in their views Needless to say I didn’t persuade many. Sounds like a normal day for me on X!

@rev_cap What shortage estimate did they quote??? Please don’t say 10m…!

At a family event where everyone explains to me that home prices will never go down due to a structural shortage

@neelkashkari @NickTimiraos @colbyLsmith @TimDuy Labor market is less rate sensitive now. Rates have to be much much higher to affect it really at all

Most bizarre macro discussion is how “if the Fed hikes unemployment will spike” when so few people even work in cyclical industries anymore The Fed could hike massively and unemployment is not going to increase in healthcare which is by far the largest employer

@BobEUnlimited @sonalibasak Bob is there anything that makes you think companies won’t hit / beat estimates? For so many years now estimates have continually been too low, inflation expectations have been too low, and every year we keep beating them The overheat continues

Very high expectations coming into this earnings season. Nice report from @sonalibasak icapital.com/insights/inves…