Rev Cap

@EnergyPeddler What is oil Down on now?!? lol

Jesus are we really about to send WTI back into the 80s

If we rip on this instead of finally rolling down it will be so lame

I mean wow

A 5 sigma selling day and stocks are down 25bps

How are people selling this much stock and stocks are not going down Someone is buying on the other side

@TMTLongShort @EFrefro If they stop the Iranian oil or do anything Iran will mine the strait

@EFrefro 🤷‍♂️ no idea

Unsanctioning Iranian oil doesn’t mean letting the IRGC collect dollars it means seal team six taking possession of Iranian tankers at sea. I thought that was obvious.

@TMTLongShort The idea Bessent and Trump are in control of this situation is … not particularly credible

Really being tough on Iran

@Brian_A_E Stocks were down 25bps today and are now up from the day before if you include the after hours

@KahlVados Can’t taco this one

@rev_cap Unless you have an argument for why we will not have a TACO, you're just adding to the scare narrative. It's like tariffs in the spring of 2025 or AI is over in the fall.

Oil +6% overnight on Saudi oil infrastructure shut ins Stocks flat still waiting for their TACO, even after Powell was about as hawkish as the all time most dovish Fed chair could be Me to equity longs this morning

@blueprintsmb22 We’ve just run extreme deficits now for 6 years and had so much nominal GDP growth that everyone thinks it’s normal It’s actually pretty abnormal versus most times in history But I’m sure big tech will come out better than SMB from this

@blueprintsmb22 Certainly a big piece of it. No exposure to commodities. Control their costs. Secular demand tailwind But they are having to spend a ton on capex right now to not lose their leadership and demand to support an ROI is still sensitive to the broader backdrop

The news flow is so bad and futures are flat. Remarkable. Shows you that having 7 stocks 1/3 of the index more levered to AI capex trends and opex efficiency means the stock market has never been less connected to what’s actually happening in the economy (no private jobs) and geopolitically. Wild. If futures were down 2-3 pct, I would be like yeah seems reasonable.

@Rory_Johnston How could he even do that at this point? If he TACOs oil probably rips even more because the bull case is the US militarily takes control of the strait

I still think Trump will TACO—because he *has* to TACO. Oil loss it too big, too politically untenable. While the damage is already extensive and recovery will already be a months-long ordeal, it can get so, so much worse and this is fundamentally a crisis of lost time. People will push back and say it isn't up to Trump anymore. But while there are two other major parties in this war, Trump remains the 1) most important, and 2) most movable by external pressures (like, say, oil prices), so it's gotta be him.

@NickTimiraos @stevehou If you look at any period of history other than 2010-19, interest rates now are finally in a normal place, and given core PCE is 3% and moving higher, by any historical benchmark or actual rule of policy, interest rates should be moving higher too What was abnormal was 2020-21

I used the air quotes for a reason! You could call it an interval or whatever but the point is that it seems more likely the interval of “insurance” or “recalibration” cuts is at much greater risk of conclusion. There have been several intervals of pandemic policy: the extraordinary support which includes the delay/error, the rapid hikes to get back on sides, and finally, the recalibration to avoid unnecessary collateral damage. The longer that energy prices rise or the higher prices persist, the greater the likelihood that the next interval is something different.

Can we really call it an “era” much less “easy”? Those rate cuts felt begrudging, painful, and controversial the whole way through. [god, just look at how much they aged poor Jay Powell, who’s still being sued for a remodeling cost overrun.] The Republicans hated the first three cuts, esp that first jumbo cut drove them mad, cried hell and swore it would cause the repeat of 70s. The melodrama was insane. Ended up fine. Then Trump won the same Republicans that hated the first three cuts now cried foul again. They complained the Fed was “too late” and wasn’t cutting enough, and that it was “unfair” and “political”. Meanwhile the Dems started disliking the cuts also complaining that inflation was a rising risk. And just to prove their point, the Dems and their upper middle class voters spent money on restaurants and holidays and brought inflation back. So now, we are stuck, long term rates are barely lower, we’ve got higher prices, stubborn inflation, tariffs, a war with Iran with surging gas prices, and everybody is unhappy. Except Jensen. Jensen seems really happy. He’s living the dream, selling 75% margin GPU chips to everybody even the Chinese. He’s jetting to Taiwan to slurp Taiwanese beef noodles every other month. There’s a lesson in all this. I just haven’t figured it out yet.

@fcastofthemonth @grobb2000 @M_C_Klein @AdamPosen Won’t Powell just move the goalposts again? His approach is to invent whatever definition of inflation isn’t up or if they are all up, just say it’s transient because of XYZ reason

@grobb2000 @M_C_Klein @AdamPosen Wait till you get a load of Feb mkt-based core PCE ex-hsng. In Jan, it climbed to 2.9% (was 2.3% in Nov), highest outside of Covid readings going back to 1995. LR avg is 1.5% & core PCE target-consistent is about 1.6%. March threatens to rise to 3.1%-3.2%, prob same as core PCE.

Don't know why he said this, services inflation is also accelerating across a broad range of categories

Fox News tonight basically pleading with Trump to bail from Iran Even Laura Ingraham blasting Trump for underestimating Iran and not anticipating that they could close the Strait

@pekwat I don’t know how this became normalized and the media just doesn’t care Nick T asked a few hard questions today for first time in like 4 years

Stocks do not seem to be contemplating this

@WarrenPies @toiletkingcap What’s the macro implication

U.S. oil export ban likely...especially once U.S. officials realize that if we export our SPR barrels they are likely to end up in China's SPR. W/o a corresponding product/gasoline export ban, then we run it back to pre-2015 days when domestic crack spreads blew out.