Jukan@jukan05
"Apple to Become World's #3 Notebook Vendor This Year"... Driven by MacBook Neo and Unified Memory Architecture
Apple is projected to overtake Dell to claim the #3 spot in global notebook shipments this year, driven by the recently launched entry-level MacBook Neo and its Unified Memory Architecture (UMA). The global notebook market is expected to contract 8% this year, with Lenovo and Dell — both armed with strong memory procurement leverage — likely to outperform peers.
On the 26th, market research firm Sigmaintell forecast that global notebook shipments this year will fall 8% to 181.1 million units, down from 196.7 million units last year. The decline reflects rising component prices, particularly memory chips, alongside broader market weakness.
Vendor-level shipment forecasts for this year are as follows: Lenovo 43 million units, HP 39 million, Apple 28 million, Dell 22.5 million, Asus 16.5 million, Acer 10.9 million, and others 21.2 million.
Apple is the sole major vendor expected to post growth, with shipments rising 22% from 23 million units last year to 28 million this year. Every other major vendor is projected to decline year-over-year. Dell's shipments are expected to drop from 24.2 million to 22.5 million units, allowing Apple to leapfrog Dell into third place.
Apple has rounded out its MacBook lineup this year with the launch of the entry-level MacBook Neo. The previous MacBook lineup consisted of the Pro and Air, both priced above the Neo. The MacBook Neo starts at 990,000 won.
Sigmaintell also highlighted Apple's Unified Memory Architecture (UMA). UMA is a design unique to Apple Silicon in which the CPU and GPU share memory resources. According to Sigmaintell, Apple has standardized memory specifications across multiple product lines, improving flexibility in component sourcing.
Apple's revenue model is another differentiating factor. Apple generates substantial services revenue from the App Store, iCloud, and similar offerings, meaning it does not need to fully pass through memory price increases into finished-product pricing. Apple uses hardware like the MacBook as an "entry point" into its ecosystem, with services revenue offsetting hardware-side cost pressure.
Sigmaintell noted that Apple's revenue model differentiates it from x86-camp Windows notebook vendors that rely on Intel and AMD CPUs. The x86 camp is heavily dependent on hardware sales. While Apple's notebook shipment forecast trails Lenovo and others, per-unit profit and overall margins are expected to exceed those of peers.
Within the x86 camp, fortunes are expected to diverge this year due to differences in memory procurement power. Lenovo and Dell, both with sizable server businesses, are expected to outperform, while Asus and Acer — with minimal server market share — face greater headwinds. Servers consume far more memory per unit than notebooks, so a larger server business translates into stronger memory procurement leverage. Securing memory in bulk at relatively lower prices helps ease cost pressure on the notebook side.
All major x86 notebook vendors are expected to see shipment declines this year, but the magnitude varies. Lenovo, with its high server market share, is forecast to decline 6% (45.6 million → 43 million units), and Dell 7% (24.2 million → 22.5 million units) — both narrower than the overall market's expected 8% decline.
In contrast, HP is projected to decline 11% (43.7 million → 39 million units), Asus 10% (18.4 million → 16.5 million units), and Acer 15% (12.9 million → 10.9 million units) — all steeper than the broader market. Acer's heavy reliance on low-end products is a particular drag.
Combined shipments from vendors outside this top tier are expected to plunge 27%, from 28.9 million units last year to 21.2 million units this year.
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