
POWIE
1.5K posts

POWIE
@POWIE1
Wigan Athletic, Holidays in Asia and a bit of work in-between!! Instagram : powie_uk













Only trip hop fanatics will know what album this is.










🧵 The Iran war is creating two trades the market is sleeping on. Tungsten & Fertilizer. Here's the setup: TUNGSTEN: — Chinese APT prices up ~500% from 2024 lows — Chinese APT exports fell to ZERO in late 2025 — $5.6B spent on munitions in 2 days. Tungsten = armour-piercing rounds — NDAA/DFARS ban on Chinese tungsten effective Jan 1, 2027 — Trump's $1.5T defence budget — JPMorgan: "If the US cannot achieve a short-term victory, it will likely be forced to attempt a ground war" — i.e. multiyear munitions demand — BMO calling it a tungsten "supercycle" $EQR.AX (EQ Resources) — Western tungsten pure-play. Offtake with Elmet Technologies, the ONLY 100% US-owned fully integrated tungsten manufacturer. Offtake signed at roughly HALF current spot prices. Reports H1 earnings TOMORROW (Mar 13). First ER since the tungsten price explosion, Iran war, and defence spending surge. Binary event. FERTILIZER: — 1/3 of global fertilizer transits the Strait of Hormuz — now closed and MINED — Urea prices up ~30% in ONE WEEK — Spring planting begins in weeks — nitrogen application cannot be deferred — China not exporting nitrogen fertilizer until August — Europe running at ~75% nitrogen capacity (no Russian gas) — Bloomberg: "This crisis might be worse" than 2022 $CF (CF Industries) — Largest US nitrogen producer. Domestic production = insulated from Hormuz disruption. Benefits whether war escalates OR if GCC safe-haven status is permanently impaired. Up 37% in 3 months, Barclays PT $120. Hit ATH last week. $LXU (LSB Industries) — Smaller, more leveraged nitrogen play. Same thesis, bigger beta. Three scenarios: 1. Iran de-escalates → prices dip short term, but GCC insurance repricing sticks. CF/LXU hold. 2. No escalation but GCC permanently impaired → slow drip of supplier exits. CF wins long-term. 3. Full escalation → fertilizer and tungsten both go parabolic. CF + EQR. The asymmetry is in scenario 2 — the market is pricing binary (war on/off) but the structural damage to Gulf shipping routes is already done. NFA. DYOR. #Tungsten #Fertiliser #Finland $IPI $MOS $NTR $UAN $AII.TO $AII


$EMAT ClearStreet is Initiating coverage on Evolution Metals & Technologies (EMAT) — a potential U.S. midstream leader in critical metals refining & recycling. $EMAT is a disruptor in magnets, battery materials & precious metals processing with a scalable, closed-loop model. Price Target. $30 PT. #CriticalMinerals #EnergyTransition #EMAT














