Robert M Geraci

Sam Altman told you so: "We're going to see 10 person billion-dollar companies pretty soon. In my little group chat with CEO-friends, there's this One-person billion-dollar company, which would have been unimaginable without AI, and now it'll happen."

Here’s the truth: we’ve already reached AGI — we just haven’t implemented it broadly. Millions of jobs are being lost as we speak. Entire careers will be retired. The rich and powerful investors and founders who implement AGI will get bizarrely rich beyond what makes sense. It will break people's brains on both sides. It’s gonna suck for a lot of our friends and family, who aren’t obsessed with their careers, because things are moving so fast they won’t have even left the starting gate by the time the awards are handed out. We’re gonna have to solve for a lot of second- and third-order effects, some of which will suck (job loss) and some of which will be awesome. AI will create free/cheap energy, free education, cheaper and better food, homes that build themselves and medicine that makes you as healthy as a 30-year-old when you’re 100. … change is hard, but humans are the most adaptable species nature has ever created. We can figure it out.

In fairness, Kokotajlo is pulling this number out of his ass. It's not based on anything rigorous. Just like his 2027 prediction.

The AI psychosis is so bad that the humans are hallucinating now. The belief that next-token prediction will not only replicate but exceed all human thought is an extrapolation that borderlines religious dogma.

The race to superintelligence is IMHO mainly motivated by money and power, not by a plan to cure cancer – which can be better tackled with powerful tool AI:

NEWS🚨: Renowned AI professor claims the universe is a simulation created to develop superintelligence — and will "soon be turned off."

Sam Altman says another breakthrough beyond transformers could be coming, and models are now smart enough to help find it On products, AI creates a huge chance to rebuild entire product categories and make new things possible "but AGI will look like just a warm-up for what comes next"