ReshapeTech

@yq_acc The single biggest problem with crypto: Devs got used to easy funding & aren't competitive with web2 startups For yrs crypto gave no need to deliver - useful products - sustainable revenue ..& yet multi Billion valuations Reality has arrived: create real value or leave

@adamscochran There's only one way out for Trump; He's already made a soft deal with Iran and he's just saber rattling to save face Then comes out with "they listened to my threats and they backed down" ..without that, Trump & markets are screwed

That second point is one that many people are underestimating. If Trump takes no action, and makes large concessions to get a deal - then ANY future military threat becomes hollow. His entire foreign policy through threat approach falls apart. Beyond just ego, he has interest in carrying out action, just so his words don’t seem empty. That’s not a good position for us to be in.

@financialjuice Pezeshkian has no authority Listen to the real decision makers - Vahidi - Ghalibaf

Iran's President Pezeshkian: We're ready to end war, but want guarantees.

@ericnuttall Devil's advocate: 1. US now hv Venezuelan latest global supply (will take time, but its coming) 2. Oil intensity keeps declining (and will continue with solar + nuclear) x.com/i/status/20367…

“The most anticipated oil supply glut in history”™️ is dead, and with it the biggest bear thesis for oil. We believe we are now in a multi-year oil bull market based on the twilight of US shale, peaking non-OPEC production, and minimal OPEC spare capacity.

Listening to @PierrePoilievre break down monetary policy on Joe Rogan, this is exactly the kind of conviction I stand behind. #cdnpoli

@0xNairolf we need better ratings (surely with AI its easier, the same way auditing smart contracts is easier) some interesting starts but not good enough (yet): x.com/MeshClans/stat…

who is building risk ratings for stablecoins? something simple, like bond ratings with 204 stablecoins today and probably 1,000 by 2030 this feels necessary

@AnthropicAI Who will lose their job?

Introducing The Anthropic Institute, a new effort to advance the public conversation about powerful AI. anthropic.com/news/the-anthr…

@goodalexander Hype is still good for the *many* 1. Non US traders 2. US trader who dont want to kyc

Question: if the main purpose of hyperliquid is for US users to trade perpetual swaps without kyc and the US legalizes perpetual swaps is that good or bad?

@AahanPrometheus You and your team are doing excellent work ..keep it up!

No marketing hype, I'm proud of the body of work we put out. Recent highlights: ☑️Deep-dive into the complex divergence between equities & labor market ☑️ Systematic scan across the global expected returns across 25 assets & 5 countries ☑️A whole lot of systematic portfolios

@not_ellington 100%. It was shown to us years ago:

The entire idea of a perpetual underclass as a looming threat of AGI is so stupid because it already exists and has for decades for those with the eyes to see. The entire point of technology is that it makes humans less useful. The steamboat made rowers useless. The loom made seamstresses useless. The computer made human algebraists useless. And now AI is going to make most white-collar humans useless. It is important to understand that this is not a new phenomenon, it is just the first time that many 'computer people' have seen it with their own eyes and are shaken by it because they lived an entire life of arrogance believing their own intelligence to be uncommoditizable. So, naturally, to cope with this slightly overblown but also very real fear that they are becoming economically useless, many of these white collar professionals have been joking about the 'perpetual underclass'. Yeah, its kinda funny, mostly worn out by now, but I think the extent to which it is referenced is a sign that it is a real anxiety a lot of people are facing. I do think that it is coming in one form or another, so what do we do? What do we do with millions of people when AI can do their job for cheaper and better than they themselves can? Andrew Yang style UBI? Hmmmm. Maybe we give everyone a fake job to make them still feel productive. Maybe we have them entirely reliant on the government for all necessary goods (food, housing, etc.). Maybe, after they get home from their (fake) Real Hard Intellectually Stimulating and Meaningful™ job, we just let them ingest marginal cost, addictive, meaningless entertainment. What else could a realistic underclass look like? It cannot be cartoonish (i.e. industrial London circa 1894 with rampant pollution, starvation, etc.) because then we risk a serious revolt. What these types who comment on this don't understand (apropos the previous paragraph) is that the 'permanent underclass' already exists and has for quite some time now. The only difference is that most in the permanent underclass ('The Matrix' as some more controversial figures call it) are so blinded by societal norms and trivialities (sports, politics, etc.) to recognize the extreme wealth inequality that is right in fucking front of them. What these types also don't understand is that many people are born into slavery. Not 1850s South Carolina, but mental, psychological slavery. They don't believe in their own agency. They don't believe in their own potential salvation. Life is just what passes through your eyes and you are a viewer. What's more, even if they did seek agency, they do not have the intelligence, ideas, charisma, confidence, strength, or creativeness to capitalize. Most people are slaves because the non-slaves are so individual most could only believe that they were touched by God. The issue is that those who were born with the aforementioned qualities are dwindling with respect to the prerequisites to outpace AI/automation. You now need to be 4 standard deviations above the mean in one of (if not more) of these qualities because AI, when prompted correctly, is already capable of up to 3 standard deviation skill in ALL of these domains (rough example metrics). This trend will continue frighteningly quickly until those whose skills are truly unique number in the thousands. So what do you do with the rest of society? Unfortunately you have two options. One right-wing-coded, one left-wing-coded. Option 1. Only the strong survive. Let natural selection run its course until there are a few tens of thousand Übermensch that run the neo-feudal system. Option 2. The entire Earth is turned into a welfare state akin to what is happening now on a much smaller scale. Go to your fake job, go to your state-sanctioned 10ft x 10ft apartment, and watch TikTok with your state-sanctioned AI girlfriend (the real women are reserved for the A10s) All to say, the perpetual underclass is real. It is coming, but the reality is most people actually want it to. Most people want to outsource thinking to an AI and live hedonistically. The K shaped world will accelerate. It is up to us to decide whether this rising tide lifts or sinks all ships.

flatbed rejections are a good indicator for small/mid-cap industrials AIRR ETF (small cap industrials) is up 24% YTD and 221% over 5yrs Less so for S&P which is 70%+ tech/services. Also worth noting the dataset is thin (<5% of SONAR tenders) and the last spike to 41% was mostly tariff front-loading. Real confirmation is ISM PMI just hitting 52.6 - first expansion in a year. Flatbed x PMI x homebuilders is a good proxy for economy growing again

Flatbed rejection rates are on fire to 40%. Flatbeds are breaking out above previous records that were broken in 2021, the height of COVID. This is an extremely bullish indicator for heavy industrial and manufacturing activity in the economy.

@ccatalini You missed the whole physical world: Buy a farm, become self-sufficient Otherwise great paper! Albeit depressing

1/ Some Simple Economics of AGI—🔥🧵 Right now, there is a low-grade panic running through the economy. Everyone is asking the same anxious question: what exactly is AI going to automate, and what will be left for us?

@VitalikButerin Get apps with paying users, all else is noise Revenue is fuel; sustaining any other mission

In these five years, the Ethereum Foundation is entering a period of mild austerity, in order to be able to simultaneously meet two goals: 1. Deliver on an aggressive roadmap that ensures Ethereum's status as a performant and scalable world computer that does not compromise on robustness, sustainability and decentralization. 2. Ensures the Ethereum Foundation's own ability to sustain into the long term, and protect Ethereum's core mission and goals, including both the core blockchain layer as well as users' ability to access and use the chain with self-sovereignty, security and privacy. To this end, my own share of the austerity is that I am personally taking on responsibilities that might in another time have been "special projects" of the EF. Specifically, we are seeking the existence of an open-source, secure and verifiable full stack of software and hardware that can protect both our personal lives and our public environments ( see vitalik.eth.limo/general/2025/0… ). This includes applications such as finance, communication and governance, blockchains, operating systems, secure hardware, biotech (including both personal and public health), and more. If you have seen the Vensa announcement (seeking to make open silicon a commercially viable reality at least for security-critical applications), the ucritter.com including recent versions with built in ZK + FHE + differential-privacy features, the air quality work, my donations to encrypted messaging apps, my own enthusiasm and use for privacy-preserving, walkaway-test-friendly and local-first software (including operating systems), then you know the general spirit of what I am planning to support. For this reason I have just withdrawn 16,384 ETH, which will be deployed toward these goals over the next few years. I am also exploring secure decentralized staking options that will allow even more capital from staking rewards to be put toward these goals in the long term. Ethereum itself is an indispensable part of the "full-stack openness and verifiability" vision. The Ethereum Foundation will continue with a steadfast focus on developing Ethereum, with that goal in mind. "Ethereum everywhere" is nice, but the primary priority is "Ethereum for people who need it". Not corposlop, but self-sovereignty, and the baseline infrastructure that enables cooperation without domination. In a world where many people's default mindset is that we need to race to become a big strong bully, because otherwise the existing big strong bullies will eat you first, this is the needed alternative. It will involve much more than technology to succeed, but the technical layer is something which is in our control to make happen. The tools to ensure your, and your community's, autonomy and safety, as a basic right that belongs to everyone. Open not in a bullshit "open means everyone has the right to buy it from us and use our API for $200/month" way, but actually open, and secure and verifiable so that you know that your technology is working for you.

@damianplayer Where is evidence backing this up?

your timeline convinced you AI is in a bubble. talk to a boomer above the age 35 for 5 minutes. most people don’t even know what claude is.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ kind of wild when you zoom out.

So true, Anthropic is the best generalist But can't replicate specialists using AI Imagine Claude managing ALL the diverse: - domain knowledge - client relationships - industry process nuances Its too much supply chain for 1 co - Microsoft makes the platform (Excel, Word Windows), specialists use the platform and still make money

When the tractor was first invented, everyone thought that people will now grow their own food since they have access to new equipment The reality that followed was exactly the opposite > farming became even more hyper specialized > that industry became more concentrated amongst larger players I suspect that the same exact discourse is now taking place within AI and software Not every company wants to build their own internal SaaS products. It just doesnt make sense to do it when solutions already exist Specialization also just brings a lot of benefits, including better unit economics and margins Will some companies be disintermediated? Sure. But I suspect that more value will accrue to the best of breed SaaS platforms that are actually embracing AI and using it as a tailwind for their product today

@hosseeb Crypto is banking for AI, > Banks won't give Agents bank accounts > Crypto allows Agents to transact in the global economy, making them (even) more useful The million-dollar question is: Will Agents use any crypto as a SoV ..if so; huge upside

@karsenthil simple: 1. Gold has Chinese size bid, NFTs are commoditised, AI stocks are more exciting & hv revenue 2. crypto tokens didn't solve value accrual (they focused on hype & marketing instead) & the 0.01% who do have value accrual (Hype Aave etc) are at rich valuations

It's a weird time in crypto. The stuff that the industry has been talking about/predicting forever is actually happening, but no eyes or capital is bidding the space right now. Currency debasement is a real narrative, but gold has been ripping (not BTC) The collectibles market is only growing (Pokeman cards are selling for $16M) but it's happening over traditional physical venues, not via NFTs. Prediction markets are bigger than probably anyone outside of Shayne thought they would be, but its not seen as a crypto thing and Kalshi markets AFAIK don't use crypto rails (yet) Stablecoin volumes are up and to the right, but most of the attention is focused in fintechs, not DeFi. Why is this happening? There's probably a lot of reasons but the biggest is that the crypto industry is guilty of wasting the public's curiosity/goodwill/capital on BS/infra no one asked for/founders + VCs doing cash grab, vs. focusing on actual products that people outside

@jessewldn @laurashin @nic_carter Jesse with respect; regulation has lifted Yet tokens are still valueless The real issues are 1. Weak products/PMF 2. Weak tokenomics (protocol revenues don't go to tokenholders) 3. Unrealistic market caps, due to speculation But I agree, tokens will move to equity

respectfully think you and nic are glossing over important nuance: yes, many tokens were not tied to any durable value (startups that didn't work, or worse, were never intended to work) but also, many tokens were significantly hampered by an adversarial regulatory environment, where teams were restricted from staying involved to build durable value and cash flows. end state, many tokens will end up looking more similar to equity (but not exactly the same) - and hopefully, this will be regulated under SEC safe harbor rules. x.com/jessewldn/stat…

I think @nic_carter is right about this: crypto's token era didn't fail because of regulation. It failed because the model never produced durable value. What comes next, according to Nic, is more mundane and more sustainable. Cash-flow businesses. Real revenue. The kind of "boring" that actually compounds.

@AvgJoesCrypto There's lack of PMF to allocate capital to What tokens hv sustained value accrual? (PMF) Maybe Hype + 0.01% others

Perhaps a hot take, but crypto does not have a “lack of PMF” problem, but a “deeply unserious capital allocator” problem

AI = tech recession But a Renaissance in hard assets Since dotcom, tech got high PE multiples, from asset-light software with high margins AI permanently compresses software premium Hard assets (factories, infra, energy, mining, utilities) are hard to replace Atoms > bits

Nexus do pay, but no one had v2 insurance bc it (has to be) expensive Aave is best (battled tested). Morpho silo'ing pools is stronger design, but they're less lindy. Key issue holding back DeFi/Aave 1. Hack risk can't be quantified (best we can do is use crypto history, but its too short) 2. Insurance cost reduces investors yield too much

@ReshapeTech Wonder if @NexusMutual or any of those DeFi insurance apps paid out 🤔 Btw could you see something like this happening to aave or they are magnitudes more solid?

DeFi sadly looks like Turkey Risk Balancer v2 got hacked for $120m despite: → 11 audits → from 4 top security firms & → 4+ years operating experience x.com/CupOJoseph/sta…