@aahan_prometheus

Alright, let’s do this twitter thing. 1/ I started @prometheusmacro in 2020 as a free blog to develop and share my ideas on macro and investing. Fast forward to today and Prometheus is a fast growing macro research firm servicing some of the biggest institutions in the world…

@rev_cap Vibes are more important than inventories now

Sorry to be that guy but how is oil not going up on these insane inventory draws

@dampedspring Good grief

@AahanPrometheus Sadly no.

This has to be 1k bots liking this, right?

@priceactionlab I know :)

@AahanPrometheus I mean top 5%, not allocation.

❤️❤️❤️

@fakegingerbitch @priceactionlab 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

@priceactionlab @AahanPrometheus 50% of one of my accounts. 😅

@priceactionlab 💯💯💯💯

@AahanPrometheus 5% here!

Get em

I think you have to crash the bonds to crash the stocks So really You have to crash the bonds to save the bonds

Own Stocks + Commodities

@Fullcarry @BobEUnlimited Might have to launch an ETF

@AahanPrometheus @BobEUnlimited We'll let that be your alpha

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Bad for bonds? Good for bonds? Means nothing to bonds?

@GevaZipper FULL MACRO TREND *

Yeppers

@TraderBillyAU @WarrenPies 🤝💯🤌🏽

@AahanPrometheus @WarrenPies Rates are going hirer in the US.... wouldnt be surprised to see +40bps priced in next 9-12mth

SOH vs Fed Early in the War, rates moved with the price of oil in a linearly...Oil up = fewer cuts Oil is now below where it was in late-April (4/29), but rate cut pricing has drifted out of the market Translation: There are two dimensions at work: Price level and duration

@TraderBillyAU @WarrenPies Ahh gotcha. What’s you read from that?

@AahanPrometheus @WarrenPies add another series like the FED for the ECB and/or BoE... would be telling to see the drag to the right as they both have much more priced

Prometheus

@TraderBillyAU @WarrenPies Say more?

@WarrenPies Please overlay with a different shape the equiv for the UK or EU.... might help to illustrate the sensitivity of rates to 2nd round effects of higher ''energy'' @AahanPrometheus

@WarrenPies My man, ty 🤝

On 1: The relationship definitely will change as price hits different levels (including the potential/probability to flip completely). On 2: Yes. Oil staying stuck at $110 will have an entirely different rate impact than oil touching $110. I'd say price action post Xi summit is the tell (there was much hope for an Iran deal)...oil just hanging out at the 105-107 level and entire rates complex repricing...hence the red dot moving straight to the right on the chart.

I guess what I’m saying is that: 1. It can make sense that the sensitivity is higher above a certain price level 2. But does the duration matter, if the price doesn’t move? Let’s say the closure continues, but oil is a dud. The duration wouldn’t really matter to the relationship with yields right? So doesn’t it just boil down to the changes in oil prices?

@AahanPrometheus I see it as level + duration of outage.