Stovo 🍊⚡
6K posts

Stovo 🍊⚡
@Runanode
Using a #Bitcoin standard | #Bitcoin maxi | Love nature
United Kingdom Beigetreten Temmuz 2010
961 Folgt368 Follower
Angehefteter Tweet

@nic_carter Your annoyance with Europe staying out of the war is getting in the way of an otherwise decent analysis of the situation.
Don't forget it took the US 2 years to show up in WW2...
English

Scenario 1: US forces unilateral reopening of the Strait (+ Israel & Gulf allies):
- US: reinforces clear hegemony, sole guarantor of postwar order, but could be costly through attrition/pyrrhic victory
- Gulf states: survive, but as vassal states totally dependent on US security guarantees
- Europe: saved in the short term, but politically exposed, reviled as security free riders, vulnerable to recriminations (US leaves/weakens NATO, abandons Ukraine), likely forced into concessions ("pay war costs through energy surcharges etc")
- Japan/Korea: rescued but exposed as vulnerable, likely forced into closer military alignment with US
- Big losers: Iran (regime change effectively guaranteed), China (Taiwan ambitions ~over)
Scenario 2: Strait stays semi-closed, US abandons efforts to reopen it, China cargoes travel freely. Iran enforces selective transit regime for remainder of 2026+
- China: massive strategic winner
- Iran: strategic + economic winner if regime survives, proves it can hold entire world to ransom without a navy
- US: economically less exposed, but strategic big loser
- Russia: quiet huge winner
- Europe/Japan/Korea: catastrophic losers, energy shock, total loss of leverage, possible Chinese vassalization
Scenario 3 is my base case, less interesting but most likely: partial reopening, persistent gray zone conflict, US does not walk away, both sides get trapped in a war of attrition with global trade impaired
- EU/Japan/Korea big losers here again
- US strategic winner, suffers economically
- China is likely a loser (US won't accept selective transit regime indefinitely)
- Global south big loser
Scenario 2 looks completely unacceptable from both a US and EU perspective but Euros are acting like its not possible or likely. It may not be their "fight" but they're certainly exposed to the outcome. Scenario 3 is also quite bad for the Euros. The only "good" outcome for them is one in which the US wins a total victory and then a vengeful Trump tries to extract concessions from Europe to recoup wartime costs. Which doesn't seem good from a Euro perspective at all.
It's actually genuinely hard to conceive of an outcome that's straightforwardly good for EU interests, aside from "they come to their senses and send a bunch of warships to help Trump", which seems vanishingly unlikely at this point.
In my opinion, Europeans should be on high alert.
English

it's uncanny how the Straits crisis and its reverberations was completely anticipated by peter zeihan in this 2020 book
core thesis:
- the US as a reluctant increasingly isolationist hegemon unwilling or unable to maintain food energy security for the whole planet
- the US able to weather this transition as it has the continental resources it needs, but its erstwhile freeloader allies totally hung out to dry in the new order
- no hegemon willing or able to fill the gap; no one else post '45 has the blue water navy and power projection ability that the US had; trade becomes more disordered and more expensive
- trade becomes more regionalized, countries dependent on seamlessly functioning global food/fertilizer/energy trade are big big losers, globalization retreats
haven't seen any good counter arguments to this thesis. the realignment is happening in real time. listen to what the Euros are saying about the Strait and their energy security and see what Trump is saying about Europe. (not saying anyone is "right" or "morally justified" just calling balls and strikes)

English
Stovo 🍊⚡ retweetet

@PeterMcCormack This would lead to Victorian era levels of inequality as a small side effect.
English


Gary Brecka just made a jaw-dropping prediction on Piers Morgan: “If you’re alive five years from today, it will be your choice whether or not you want to live to 120 or 140.”
He says the combo of early detection + AI + big data is about to explode life extension — and we’re already seeing AI advance so fast in medicine that one surgeon told Piers the field changed unbelievably in just three weeks.
Brecka: “AI can take 700 trillion independent variables and create actionable results.”
The future of healthcare isn’t coming — it’s already here, and it’s moving at warp speed.
Do you believe we’ll see people routinely choosing to live to 120–140 within the next 5 years? Or is this hype?
English

Raise the voting age to 25 and for people who have a job in the private sector.
Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️⚧️@LeftieStats
🚨 NEW | Greens lead with youth (16-25) 🟢 Grn: 34% (+2) 🔴 Lab: 28% (+3) ➡️ Ref: 18% (-2) 🔵 Con: 10% (-1) 🟠 Lib: 8% (-1) This is a proper weighted poll, not a subsample. Via @Savanta_UK, Feb 2026 (+/- vs 7 Nov)
English

bitcoin has never done the same thing twice.
so much of this app is people insisting that against all odds, this time, it will.
Jelle@CryptoJelleNL
$BTC continues to follow the 2022 bear market roadmap closely. Would see a relatively slow bleed towards the low $50ks from here - before bouncing back up; if it keeps playing out the same. Lots of people talk about buying there. I wonder if they will if price gets there.
English

@MichaelAArouet Adjusting for PPP it's roughly 40% higher in the US and this has stayed consistent since the 90s.
English

I’m quite terrified but the economic situation in the U.K.
So many friends are struggling:
- Businesses scraping by
- Many closing
- Large numbers of redundancies
- People struggling to get work
- Everything feels expensive
Labour can’t fix this, ideologically it’s impossible.
They need to go as soon as possible.
English

@PeterMcCormack Same supermarket has a 400g pack for £3.60, you're purposely choosing the premium variety to be dramatic
English

@mog_russEN If this was in a western country people would be talking about the fall of the west or some bullshit
English

@Runanode @PeterMcCormack Until its not a windy day and then what? We have ample gas and oil fields, we have huge amounts of hydro and solar also but fossil fuels are here to stay and by not maximising our resources we are hurting the average person
English

@scotsmancrypto @PeterMcCormack We don't have enough oil & gas to multiply our energy production using those methods. Plenty of wind though.
English

@Runanode @PeterMcCormack The UK needs to go after gas and oil to increase our energy and I dont see it 3x in 5 years under this governemnt
English

@scotsmancrypto @PeterMcCormack We're going to 3x our electricity generation within 5 years but ok
English

@getbitcoin108 @PeterMcCormack Most of our renewable energy is in the sea or on rooftops
English

@Runanode @PeterMcCormack Building 1 million acres of solar panels on highly productive farmland in the second worst country for solar power in the entire world, threatening both grid stability and food security is not ‘doing the right thing’. It’s insanely self-destructive.
English

@Object_Zero_ Income distribution is actually already pretty good in the UK, it's wealth distribution where things get a bit bonkers. E.g. half the wealth being held by the top 1%
English

In the UK the take home minimum wage for working a full time job is:
£20,660
The take home wage at the £100,000 tax cliff (only 4% of Brits earn above this) is:
£68,600
This is a net income ratio of 3.3:1
Now let’s compare that to… oh I don’t know… how about 1960’s USSR?
According to this 1977 study wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/…
The ratio of average earnings between the top 10% of earnings and the bottom 10% of earnings in the Soviet Union was:
8:1 in 1956
5.8:1 in 1959
5:1 in 1968
This is the era of Sputnik and was the height of the Cold War Space Race.
So the UK in 2025 is a far FAR flatter income distribution than the Soviet Union at the absolute height of the Cold War.
Talk about gaslighting? We live in a communist dystopia that claims to be capitalism, meanwhile China lives in a capitalist utopia that claims to be communism.
Open your eyes folks.
Next should we look at censorship and state control of information?
Should we look at the number of people in prison for wrongthink?
Should we look at state seizure of private wealth?
Enough already.
English





