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Short to medium term high in Treasury yields may be close ( $tlt bottom)

I would bet we start seeing these drop pretty soon here at this rate

Last year, Wall Street strategists rushed to cut S&P 500 targets during the tariff tantrum. This time, with the #Iran #war potentially more damaging, most have barely moved. It may just mean the bigger downgrades have not started yet. #SPX #SP500 #Oil

@JeffSnider_EDU It keeps exapanding. Here is some large bank exposure I put together: x.com/i/status/20331…

HUGE: Fund Downgrades Begin x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@PicturesFoIder x.com/SaveTradeInves…

Explosion at oil refinery in Port Arthur, Texas

@DavidBCollum Here is some exposure for the largest six banks. x.com/SaveTradeInves…

There is a total bankrun on private credit and probably private equity that is held in check by gating the redemptions. Within no time, the remaining assets will be easy to mark to market: it will be zero. I think it started when Harvard Management Corp began muttering about trimming their alternative investments. Were there earlier foreshadowings?

@martypartymusic Here's a proxy for exposure for some of the large banks. x.com/SaveTradeInves…

More private credit distress. Apollo Debt Solutions fund, valued at approximately $25 billion, received redemption requests totaling 11.2% of outstanding shares for the quarter. In response, the firm activated its standard liquidity mechanism by capping redemptions at 5% of shares. This resulted in honoring roughly $730 million in outflows (out of over $1.5 billion requested), with the fund balancing this against nearly equivalent inflows of about $724 million. The decision was framed in shareholder communications and SEC filings as consistent with the fund’s “designed liquidity objectives”prioritizing preservation of asset value and avoiding forced sales of illiquid holdings at unfavorable prices. Apollo indicated it plans to maintain the 5% cap into the next quarter, aiming to balance the needs of redeeming investors with those remaining invested. This is not an outright freeze (a “gate” in extreme terms) but a pro-rata limitation built into these vehicles’ structures.

@zerohedge Exposure to some of the big banks. x.com/SaveTradeInves…

Apollo Private Credit Fund Is Latest To Gate Investors As KKR Fund Gets Junked By Moody's zerohedge.com/markets/apollo…

@nickgerli1 Agree with this but if we see a large change in mortgage rates we could see movement in either direction. For example if rate started to spike above 7.5%. Prices would likely have to respond lower at that point.

Mortgage rates have spiked in the last 3 weeks. But it won't matter for the housing market. Mortgage rates stopped being the driver of demand 3-4 years ago. Whether mortgage rates are 6.5%, or 6.0%, makes no categorical difference on demand right now. The limitation to the market today is prices, and until prices adjust, mortgage rates will largely prove inconsequential. Chart Source: Mortgage News Daily

@DerivativesDon Initial reaction if any of that came to pass would be a stronger dollar. That would do its own damage to a lot of different asset classes which we are starting to see already.

Interesting take. People may not be able to sell dollars until they pay back their dollar debt and stop invoicing everything in dollars. But, that doesn’t prevent them from selling USTs.

Refined the TGA projection model 🔹 Peak: $1.1T (April) 🔹 New Floor: $850B - $900B 🔹 2027: The debt ceiling cliff. #Macro #Treasury #TGA #FixedIncome

No need to be condescending man. I am speaking to the data you posted. When you dig into the deposits data it clearly shows most of that pile is held by higher net worth individuals. If you want to talk about the larger picture of the factual basis of the K economy effects we could have that discussion.

@SaveTradeInvest Been said, been wrong, scroll instead of repeating.

Gonna be some 💩-y Consumer Sentiment? What they WILL and CAN do is more important than how they fill out survey While benefits from tax refunds will be wiped clean, due to rising fuel prices, it doesn't wipe out record level Checkable Deposits, real accessible CASH savings 💵 The narrative that $4/gal or even how long that price lasts can determine recession has already proven faulty from 2022 when prices averaged >$4.30/gal for over 3 months in 2022. #economy $SPX $SPY $CL_F #Macro #crudeoil #IranWar‌

@MarioNawfal Good visual of the pain to the consumer x.com/i/status/20299…

Hormuz effectively closed = oil chaos hits Asia hardest. China: ~38% of all Hormuz oil flows India: ~15% (40-60% of imports) South Korea: ~12% (~70% imports) Japan: ~11% (~70-95% imports) Guess who's still getting oil through (Iranian tankers prioritized)? The ONLY major non-US ally. Peak geopolitical irony. Source: Visual Capitalist, EIA

@GeorgeGammon @YouTube Good visual on the proxy risk to the big Banks x.com/i/status/20331…

New Whiteboard Vid!! 🔥 The panic is spreading like wildfire…for good reason MORE Private Credit Funds Are Collapsing...Are The Banks Next? youtu.be/Jo7r7vIqJLo?si… via @YouTube

@GlobalMacroZen @stevehou @AndreasSteno @zriboua This was all foreseeable...

@stevehou @AndreasSteno @zriboua Russia is helping...

Iran is firing MORE and they are hitting MORE per shot than during the first days of the conflict. Not good..

@TSoulSA_ @SenWarren Not good timing with the economy weakening. This would be worse for main street than the inflation we saw in 2022 as a whole.

@SaveTradeInvest @SenWarren Inflation rate ↗️↗️↗️

Even oil executives are warning Donald Trump that his war with Iran could cause “economic destruction” for American families.

@PolymarketIntel Good visual on the pain to the consumers. x.com/SaveTradeInves…

Iran says it has targeted oil and energy sites across the region linked to U.S. interests.

@spectatorindex Good image on the pain to the consumer: x.com/SaveTradeInves…

BREAKING: Iran says it has struck oil sites across the region that are tied to US interests

@anasalhajji Anas is the best out there. Here is a image on what the consumer is looking at: x.com/SaveTradeInves…

🛑For those following the current attacks in Iran, the region, and the Hormuz crisis but who aren’t deep into the oil industry: Oil and gas are highly flammable. When a rocket or drone hits a full storage tank or depot, the resulting fireball and massive plume of black smoke create dramatic, instantly recognizable visuals that spread worldwide in minutes. That’s exactly why militants, terrorists, and state actors have long targeted these facilities: the imagery guarantees global headlines and amplifies fear. But spectacular flames and smoke are not the same as meaningful, sustained damage to actual oil and gas supply flows. In many cases, the weapon used costs far more than replacing the tank and refilling its contents. The true “payoff” for the attacker is often the viral photos and videos, not a lasting disruption to production or exports. To the big accounts and commentators hyping every burning tank or depot as proof of massive destruction: let’s dial back the exaggeration. Dramatic scenes grab attention, but they rarely translate to the kind of prolonged supply shock that would truly reshape oil markets or the Hormuz crisis. They also divert attention from the insurance fiasco we are experiencing now. A case in point: guess where this dramatic scene is.