Polymarket Intel

Wall Street Journal: The US military has renewed aid to ships in the Strait of Hormuz, as part of the renewal of Operation "Project Freedom"

Rubio: The Strait of Hormuz opens, one way or the other. No tolls, no restrictions. Russia, China, the whole world wants it open. Only the Iranian regime wants it closed. That's not acceptable.

Rubio: Lavrov called to warn all embassies in Kyiv. Kyiv is dangerous, escalation risk is real. Putin asked him to relay the message directly to Trump, which I did. No active negotiations scheduled with Ukraine right now, but the US stands ready if the opportunity comes.

Iran's IRGC claims it downed a U.S. MQ-9 drone over the Persian Gulf for violating Iranian airspace. The IRGC also says it fired on an RQ-4 drone and an F-35, forcing both to withdraw. Tehran warned it reserves the right to respond to any ceasefire violation. - Fars

Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei in a written message: "What is certain is that the hand of time will not turn back, and the nations and countries in the region will no longer be a shield for the American bases. America, in addition to the fact that there will no longer be a safe point for evil to act aggressively and to place military bases in the region, is moving further away from its previous position day by day."

Overnight, the IRGC targeted a vessel in the Gulf near Bandar Abbas. U.S. airstrikes hit IRGC naval boats in response. Multiple IRGC Navy personnel reportedly killed. - Al Jazeera

CENTCOM to Fox News: U.S. forces hit missile launch sites and Iranian boats laying mines in southern Iran today in self-defense strikes. CENTCOM says it continues defending its forces "while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire."

Trump: The Enriched Uranium (Nuclear Dust!) will either be immediately turned over to the United States to be brought home and destroyed or, preferably, in conjunction and coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, destroyed in place or, at another acceptable location, with the Atomic Energy Commission, or its equivalent, being witness to this process and event.

Marco Rubio: The straits need to be open, they’re going to be open one way or the other. So they need to be open. What’s happening there is unlawful, it’s illegal, it’s unsustainable for the world, it’s unacceptable. I don’t know of any country in the world that’s in favor of a tolling system. The Russians are not in favor of a tolling system, the Chinese are not in favor of a tolling system. I mean, there’s no country in the world that’s in favor of a tolling system except the regime in Iran. So that’s not acceptable. That cannot happen. The straits need to be open, unimpeded, without tolls. And obviously that needs to happen immediately, as soon as anything’s agreed to.

Marco Rubio on Iran: I think there’s strong alignment and agreement on what a preliminary draft should look like. I think, like anything with something like this, it’s going to take a couple days to settle, even down to disagreements over a word or a sentence. It’s either going to be a good deal or there isn’t going to be one.

Marco Rubio: Kyiv has been a dangerous place for a number of years. But the danger in all these wars, as they continue and go on, is that they always carry the threat of escalation, of spreading into something new. So I spoke to Lavrov yesterday about that and a couple of other topics, and obviously Putin had asked him to call me to relay the message directly to the president, which I did.

HIMARS launches from unknown Gulf state targeting Iran during the recent conflict.

A Ukrainian surface-to-air missile system intercepted a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile over Kyiv this weekend.

Russian FM Lavrov told Rubio that Moscow plans large-scale strikes on Kyiv.

President Trump: Negotiations with Iran are progressing well. Demands that Arab countries join the Abraham Accords in exchange for an agreement with Iran.

Trump: Asked countries to sign the Abraham Accords after Saturday's talks.

China’s Foreign Ministry: There is but one China in the world. Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory. We urge the German side to uphold the one-China principle, stop sending wrong signals to Taiwan independence separatist forces.

Iran's Foreign Ministry acknowledged progress on "a large portion" of topics under discussion but pushed back on any suggestion a deal is close, saying "no one can make such a claim." The ministry blamed Washington for "institutionalized vacillation," citing repeated position changes and contradictory viewpoints that it says are disrupting the negotiation process.

Pompeo and Harvard's Stephen Walt faced off over the Iran war. Walt blamed the U.S. for starting the conflict, citing the 1953 CIA coup and support for Saddam during the Iran-Iraq war. Pompeo rejected the claim. Mearsheimer: There is "no evidence in the public record" Iran knew about October 7 in advance. Walt refused to call Iran a monster, comparing it to other nations including the U.S. that "do many bad things." Mearsheimer and Walt beat Pompeo and Victoria Nuland by audience vote, 56-44.

Civilian areas across Kyiv hit by mass Russian strike this morning. Widespread destruction reported.