Polymarket Intel

HIMARS launches from unknown Gulf state targeting Iran during the recent conflict.

A Ukrainian surface-to-air missile system intercepted a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile over Kyiv this weekend.

Russian FM Lavrov told Rubio that Moscow plans large-scale strikes on Kyiv.

President Trump: Negotiations with Iran are progressing well. Demands that Arab countries join the Abraham Accords in exchange for an agreement with Iran.

Trump: Asked countries to sign the Abraham Accords after Saturday's talks.

China’s Foreign Ministry: There is but one China in the world. Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory. We urge the German side to uphold the one-China principle, stop sending wrong signals to Taiwan independence separatist forces.

Iran's Foreign Ministry acknowledged progress on "a large portion" of topics under discussion but pushed back on any suggestion a deal is close, saying "no one can make such a claim." The ministry blamed Washington for "institutionalized vacillation," citing repeated position changes and contradictory viewpoints that it says are disrupting the negotiation process.

Pompeo and Harvard's Stephen Walt faced off over the Iran war. Walt blamed the U.S. for starting the conflict, citing the 1953 CIA coup and support for Saddam during the Iran-Iraq war. Pompeo rejected the claim. Mearsheimer: There is "no evidence in the public record" Iran knew about October 7 in advance. Walt refused to call Iran a monster, comparing it to other nations including the U.S. that "do many bad things." Mearsheimer and Walt beat Pompeo and Victoria Nuland by audience vote, 56-44.

Civilian areas across Kyiv hit by mass Russian strike this morning. Widespread destruction reported.

Trump on Iran: I don't make bad deals.

Trump:

Russian rear supply routes are being gutted by Ukrainian mid-range drones. The M14 highway is now lined with destroyed logistics vehicles.

JUST IN: 2 million-barrel Iraqi oil supertanker bound for China passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Sudanese Armed Forces, which has links to the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood, released footage showing a drone being shot down near Damazin in Blue Nile State by a Bayraktar Akıncı, a high altitude Turkish combat drone developed by Baykar, after it was claimed to have crossed into Sudanese airspace from Ethiopia. The Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood has come under increased scrutiny after the U.S. recently designated it a Foreign Terrorist Organization.

Tehran claims Washington is obstructing provisions in the preliminary agreement, including the release of frozen Iranian assets, and says the deal could fall apart entirely. - Tasnim

Footage out of Kyiv shows a massive Russian cruise missile barrage overnight. Over a dozen impacts visible alongside several interceptions. Kh-101 and Iskander-K missiles used in the assault.

Trump: “I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side. The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed. Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes!”

Trump

Saudi air defenses are guarding the skies over the holy sites during Hajj, ready to engage any aerial threat to protect pilgrims. - Saudi Ministry of Defense

A proposed U.S.-Iran framework reportedly includes sanctions relief, access to blocked Iranian funds and guaranteed passage through the Strait of Hormuz during a 30-day nuclear negotiation period. Iran is also said to be discussing future Hormuz management directly with Oman.