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Sunny Im
422 posts
Sunny Im
@SeonghyonI
stop giving money to subscription whores
Beigetreten Ocak 2020
358 Folgt104 Follower
$MU
Sorry gang. 260 coming.
60 bucks to go. And I'll join you.
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@raygaurca Mu weakness from openai allegedly cancelling nonbinding orders from hynix for hbm. Sndk does not sell hbm. On top of that, google turboquant doesnt impact sndk’s nand market that much
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@BrnMeetsWlth Longterm? no clue. Short term i like the odds of retracement back to 362s min. I have some long at 323 avg. Will see
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@SeonghyonI Yes, same with a chart.
But what is the risk / reward in this?
Do you have a framework to share?
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@Midnight_Captl Most people just follow loudest hindsight analysts hence fail to make money. Stop worrying about where the puck is sitting at right now
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$MU at close today is probably now in buyable territory imo
These types of stories going around, 2.7k likes, this is another Deepseek moment
Basically total nonsense
Grummz@Grummz
Micron shares are in free fall this week. - Be Micron. - Get excited about Sam Altman singing letters “intending” to buy 40% of DRAM. - Close your entire Crucial consumer memory division so you can sell gamer RAM to OpenAI. - Sam Altman loses investors, never buys the RAM he signed letters for. - Google announces breakthrough saving AI 6x the RAM. - Micron now stuck with all this RAM and no way more division to sell to consumers.
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@BrnMeetsWlth It takes 3sec to look up the valuation. Narratives drive the short term price action. And the narratives in regards to memory sector visibility into 2027 and beyond will dictate the price action for the rest of 2026
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@SeonghyonI x.com/BrnMeetsWlth/s…
There is a need to examine valuations even if the 'memory' story is intact.
Brain Meets Wealth@BrnMeetsWlth
The 1 month performance of Memory Stocks: Truly smoked $MU $WDC $SNDK SK Hynix High Valuations matter especially in this environment. It will be punished even if the fundamentals are intact.
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@bradsferguson 5yr run highly doubtful. Margins and pricing power taps out way sooner
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$MU selloff is technical, not fundamental.
The stock has become a momentum short, and the selling is mechanical.
The business itself is highly profitable and growing more so.
Few understand how profitable they will be over the next 5 years.
It’s nuts.
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MU: -32% from highs.
SNDK: -28%.
SK Hynix: -25%.
The cycle is textbook. Record earnings masked what was already happening underneath — peak margins attract peak capex. Micron is building fabs in Singapore and Taiwan. SanDisk just sank $1B into Nanya. Chinese DRAM capacity is ramping. Google's TurboQuant compresses inference memory 6x with software alone.
Supply is expanding into the teeth of efficiency gains that are structurally reducing memory-per-workload. This is the overinvestment → oversupply handoff.
Cycles don't care about forward P/E.
Petr Pinkhasov@pinkhasov
The iron law of memory cycles: shortage → price spike → overinvestment → oversupply → price collapse
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@BlackPantherCap But investing heavily now reduced future profitability. Oh and its not just them investing heavily, you got hynix, samsung, kioxia all looking to ramp production but its okay cuz we all gonna be disciplined this time around.
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$MU posted the most MISREAD earnings report of 2026.
> Revenue: $23.9B, up 196% year-over-year.
> EPS: $12.20 vs $8.79 consensus.
> Gross margins: 75%.
HBM4: entered mass production March 16.
2026 HBM capacity: sold out entirely.
The stock dropped 5% because capex came in above $25B.
The market punished a company for investing aggressively at the exact moment demand is accelerating.
That’s not a red flag. That’s a runway.
-BP
Please note: This is not financial advice.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
I see a lot of retail panicking over $MU earnings at $468. In general, re-pricing in stocks happen before earnings are announced. The exception is "unless there's a major surprise with guidance". Micron earnings beat was not a major surprise. Here's my take: - Jan 25th 2026: Public news broke out Samsung was doubling NAND prices Q1, DRAM ~70% compared to Q/Q estimates of 33-38%. Institutions probably got word a few days early from 300 paid vendor analysis, which is why $MU went from $300 -> $400. - Back in early March: News broke out Samsung was doubling NAND prices for Q2, which was a major surprise, beating some estimates by 20 times, while beating others by 5 times. There was also news that Samsung/SK Hynix were planning large DRAM price increases for the next quarter. However, this was coupled with index dropping/broader macro fears from the Ukraine war. While there was a major sell-off in majority of names, these fundamental changes, likely led $MU to outperform names like $MU that dropped 20% YTD. Leading up to earnings, there was a Bloomberg terminal report projecting Micron to beat earnings, which sent the stock from $400's to $460. The thing is: Majority of this earnings beat was known in advanced and priced in throughout the entire year. If you ever read my posts, - I've been trying to track DRAM/NAND prices along with estimating hyperscaler demand: - Tracking to track crude/LNG/Helium disruption on semi supply chains and modeling in any margin impact Which is how you price in memory companies. -> Earnings are just confirmation that your estimates before were right. So if you're buying options on the earnings week: This is a terrible idea. All the profit to be made is before information is known and priced in by the broader market.
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@chootrain3704 @fulllleverage 뭐 코로나도 극복했는데 호르무즈만 열리면 별 문제 없음. 인플레 4-5% 찍어도 쌍욕하면서 살꺼 사고 할꺼 함
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@gregory_FTA What about special dividend? That sounds better than buybacks. Nobody cares about further inflating eps via buybacks at these levels
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It’s 2028
$MU forward p/e is 2
Analysts still say it’s cyclical
Micron makes an unprecedented buyback announcement in a plan to buy back 50% of their outstanding shares.
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@INArteCarloDoss There’s no supply shortage in America and they r flooding the market with SPR on top of that. No one is rushing to bid up physical oil in America.
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moron doesn’t know how oil markets work… your gas at the pump is fucked the same way as it is everywhere else and the depression you’re creating will be global. There is nothing smart about it and even if there was, a dumb grifter like you wouldn’t notice anyway
David Sacks@DavidSacks
This is a smart strategy. Thanks to President Trump, the U.S. is energy independent. The countries that actually depend on Gulf oil should apply pressure to reopen the strait.
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