Moony

The two only things in life that give me peace daily. Thanks for cuddling me every night, when I’m all nervous in bed, fearing what tomorrow might bring. Thanks for putting louder than my thoughts can destabilize me. I love you 💕

@Vincent_Ledvina i didnt really see the strong flares in farside data?

The baseline x-ray flux is increasing. You can see in the last three days we have increased to ABOVE the C-class range. This is a sign of an active Sun, and the reason for the uptick is a new active region rotating over the eastern limb which has produced numerous strong flares and CMEs on the farside. Let's see if it still has juice left for its Earth-facing tour.

@JAtanackov why impressive? size?

More of the new active region is rotating into view. It is certainly one of the most impressive ARs in a while, but so far it is not showing much signs of high activity.

@MarkMorganLA das sieht doch schon mal gut aus 😋 meine Arbeitskollegin ist extra mit dem Zug zu nem Konzert, damit sie schneller als mit dem Auto wieder wegkommt.. die arme

Ein Wunder. Der Funk im ICE der Deutschen Bahn, scheint wieder verfügbar zu sein. Hoffen wir mal, dass das so bleibt.

@MarkMorganLA just normally or to the next station to get people out?

@SeshSad Some, yes.

I am a bullet train driver for Deutsche Bahn. The radio system isn’t working. We can’t communicate with the tower for quite some time now. Not sure when this will be fixed. This is absolutely crazy. 🫣

@Vincent_Ledvina thanks! By the way, i do think i spot a CME, but to *my* eye it looks very easterly :( At least we have hope AND cool farside regions.

@SeshSad Usually that’s how these things go yeah. Will check it out more in detail later.

Woah, happening NOW: M6.9 solar flare from AR 4473 near the Sun's eastern limb. Possible a CME has also been produced, and with a wide enough eruption, some glancing effects at Earth could be possible (though unlikely). This AR has really ramped up activity!

@Vincent_Ledvina When will we begin to see it at the E limb? :) Im still not used to SolO's view of things.

There has been a noticeable uptick in flaring as well from this region with a low-level M-flare recorded in the last six hours. We'll see if this nice-looking active region can maintain some complexity and flare potential as it rotates close to the limb and into our view.

The farside is currently dominated by a large and complex active region--take a look at the latest images from Solar Orbiter where we see a giant cluster of sunspots in what looks like at least a beta-gamma config. (maybe delta spots?).

holy fuck RIP Oliver Tree

@doktornihil @landon_wx @Vincent_Ledvina atleast not a complete miss

The CME is still 0.2-0.3 AU away – it will likely be a glancing blow rather than a flank hit (the later the arrival the weaker the impact)

The NASA and NOAA model prediction runs show two possibilities: a fast, near direct hit (early June 8) and a slower, near flanking blow (mid-day June 8). It all depends upon how the coming storm interacts with the solar wind on its way to Earth. Nearby fast wind from multiple coronal holes will also play a role in deflecting and possibly tilting the structure on its side as it travels.

If the NASA model is correct, we could be looking at a G3+ level storm. If NOAA is more correct and we get a slower, flanking blow, we will likely see a shorter G2 level storm. Of course, all of this depends upon whether the magnetic field orientation in the coming storm points southward (which we cannot predict before arrival). The previous set of storms this week hardly had any southward pointing field. That is why they fizzled out.

@SNHWx huh? the BZ hasnt dipped in over an hour.

LETS GET IT!!

@LoveMilkyWay12 @JAtanackov To me it doesnt look earth facing at all, what makes you think that? (maybe i oversaw smth)

@SeshSad @JAtanackov I think it’s a farside one but yeah looks more earth facing, idk lol

BOOM! Large and fast far side full halo CME right now. CCOR-1 images. What a spectacular blast! More soon!

@Vincent_Ledvina my european mind trying to convert cdt into utc

Impressive! NOAA has modeled the recent CMEs, and impact could be in just over 24 hr from now! Tomorrow night (Thursday) we could see G3 / Kp 7 conditions and widespread auroral displays. Impact slated for 18 UT / 1 pm CDT June 4. Charge those batteries!

Heads up! SWPC as issued a G3 WATCH for June 4th and 5th!

Multiple Earth-directed CMEs and an X-class solar flare this morning. Space weather has really heated up today, and there are chances for mid-latitude aurora tomorrow (Thursday night) due to the forecasted impact of the M9.5 CME. Additional impacts may arrive from the M7.8 and X1 eruptions. AR 4455 still has energy for more flares, so the bonanza of space weather activity may just be getting started, we'll see! Update from when I recorded this video: NOAA SWPC has released their CME model likely incorporating the M9.5 and X1 eruptions. A G3 watch has been issued for tomorrow.

@Sir5leeps @Vincent_Ledvina im also asking myself this 😂

@Vincent_Ledvina Could you explain how AR4455 is giving off so much activity, especially near X class activity? It doesn't look too complex and there has been more complex spots that pass Earth facing side without a flare over M5 etc., wanting to understand more on these spots. Thanks!

A sad day for aurora chasers…

@e_philalethes @JAtanackov weird. do you think with all the cmes en route G3 is a plausible guess? to me the cmes all on their own dont look tooooo crazy but its 3 now :D

@SeshSad @JAtanackov Didn't look too eruptive indeed, not in 284 Å either, which is the go-to wavelength to see the eruption itself rather than the resulting dimming. But based on the imagery so far it looks like a solid CME, just waiting for the first model runs now, there's a DONKI entry already.

BOOOM! X-class flare! AR 4455 is on a roll - X1.0 flare just a bit ago! Looks eruptive!