The Insight Brief

🚨 BREAKING: A new YouGov poll finds 66% of Americans support Trump's two-week ceasefire framework contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Just 10% oppose it giving the White House significant domestic political cover heading into the Islamabad talks.🇺🇸

@FoxNews They either take the initiative or risk being bombarded back to the stone age. The mullahs can't even save their asses.

NEW: Vice President JD Vance demands Iran “take the next step” for peace or the U.S. will explore “a lot of options” to return to war.

NEW: Vice President JD Vance has demanded that Iran take the next concrete step toward peace, warning that the United States will otherwise consider a wide range of options including the possibility of returning to war.

Netanyahu: Israel is ready to return to war. The word "ceasefire" is doing a lot of work right now. - @C14_news

🇱🇧🇮🇱 Israeli airstrikes killed at least 254 people across Lebanon today, with 1,165 others wounded. It is one of the deadliest single days of strikes since the conflict expanded into Lebanese territory. Source: Al Jazeera

🇮🇱🇱🇧 Israel deployed 50 fighter jets over Lebanon today, dropping 160 bombs across multiple areas within a single minute. - @Omar_Madaniah

🚨 JUST IN: Iran has accused the U.S. of violating the deal's framework, calling negotiations and a ceasefire "unreasonable" for now. The White House, meanwhile, has confirmed JD Vance will lead talks in Islamabad this weekend suggesting Washington isn't taking Tehran's posturing at face value.

Trump is set to meet with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte today to discuss a potential U.S. withdrawal from the alliance.

🚨 BREAKING: IRAN has closed the STRAIT OF HORMUZ, state media reports, citing Israel's continued bombardment of LEBANON. TEHRAN is THREATENING to resume full hostilities. Trump is monitoring the situation.

🚨 BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇱🇧🇵🇰 Iran has drawn its line. The Islamabad talks billed as the path forward are now contingent on Israel halting strikes in Lebanon. Tehran isn't leaving Hezbollah on the table this time. Two years ago, Iran let its proxy bleed. Not now. With the Strait still a live threat and Gulf air defenses still firing, Iran knows its leverage is real and it's using it. Source: WSJ

Trump has confirmed Lebanon is excluded from the ceasefire deal "because of Hezbollah." Iran and Pakistan had both stated Lebanon was covered. Tehran has already threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and strike Israel if Lebanon continues to be bombed. The deal may be unraveling before it begins.

🚨🚨🚨BREAKING!🇮🇷🇮🇷 Iran's Lavan Island oil refinery is burning after an attack Wednesday hours after a U.S.-Iran-Israel ceasefire was announced. Tehran is blaming the UAE. Missiles and drones have since been fired at the UAE and Kuwait, with air defenses actively engaging.

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇨🇳 Trump declared the ceasefire a “complete and comprehensive victory for America” and credited China with quietly pressing Iran to negotiate. If that’s accurate, the entire strategic logic of the conflict has now closed its loop. The U.S. bombed Iran. Iran shut the Strait. China’s economy took the hit. And Beijing, unable to stomach another week of $140 oil, reportedly told Tehran to cut a deal. Whether this was the plan from day one or a lucky break is in the eye of the beholder. At the same time, fresh reporting points to Vice President Vance as the driving force behind the U.S. decision to accept the ceasefire. If those accounts hold, Vance has just cast himself as the man who ended the most divisive military operation of Trump’s presidency. For anyone already looking toward 2028, there’s no better political credential than being the one who brought the troops home. Hegseth became the public face of the war. Vance may well become the face of the peace. Source: AFP

Anyone surprised by this clearly hasn’t read The Art of the Deal. “Nothing ever happens.” Of course it doesn’t. This is Trump’s classic playbook it always has been. Spot the problem. Drop the most insane, over-the-top threat imaginable and act like he has zero to lose. The second someone offers to talk, he immediately sits down at the table. Look at any major issue from either of his presidencies and you’ll see the exact same pattern play out every single time. A business owner doesn’t want to merge with one of Trump’s companies? Trump: “Fine. I’ll crash your stock, buy the whole thing for pennies on the dollar, fire everyone, and install my own team.” Business owner: “Wait… let’s talk.” Trump: “Happy to.” Iran refuses to open the Strait of Hormuz? Trump: “No problem. We’ll bomb the country into oblivion, drop a nuke if we have to, wipe out the whole region, and leave generations with cancer.” Iran: “Hold on… let’s talk.” Trump: “Love to.” It’s the same routine every single time.

🇮🇱🇮🇷 With the ceasefire now officially in place, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing intense domestic backlash. Opposition leader Yair Lapid sharply criticized him, saying: “This is the worst political disaster in Israel’s history. We weren’t even at the negotiating table when critical decisions about our core national security were made. Netanyahu failed both politically and strategically. He achieved none of the goals he himself declared. It will take us years to recover from the political and strategic damage he has caused.” Source: @yairlapid

🚨 HOLY CRAP! The White House is setting the record straight hard. Trump did not agree to Iran's ten-point plan. He agreed to negotiate using it as a framework. That is a significant distinction, and the administration is not letting it slide. Tonight's outcome: ceasefire secured, Hormuz open, talks on Friday. Trump walked away with what he needed. 47 won tonight.

🚨 President Trump has publicly accused CNN World of publishing a fraudulent statement attributed to Iran regarding the ceasefire deal, suggesting the incident may constitute a criminal act. Trump alleged the statement was sourced from a fake news site based in Nigeria before being amplified by CNN as a legitimate headline. The President stated that Iran's official ceasefire statement had since been published on his Truth Social platform, and confirmed that authorities are investigating whether a crime was committed in connection with the fabricated statement. Trump demanded CNN immediately retract the story and issue a full apology, adding that the findings of the investigation would be made public.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱🇵🇰 Tonight, the war is paused. Whether it stays that way is another question entirely. The US, Iran, and Israel have agreed to a two-week ceasefire. All strikes halted. The Strait of Hormuz is open again, moving under Iran's armed coordination. Negotiations begin Friday in Islamabad Iran's ten-point proposal on the table as the working framework. Sanctions relief. Non-aggression guarantees. Enrichment accepted. Iranian oversight of Hormuz. Compensation. Not agreed. Not settled. But the fact that Washington sat down with Iran's document instead of its own is already something. Iran got the talks it wanted, framed the way it wanted them. The US got open waters and breathing room. Israel stopped bombing the same Netanyahu who swore he never would without Iran on its knees. Two weeks. That's all there is between this pause and whatever comes next. And if this fails, what comes next will make everything so far look like a prelude. Let me know which version works best for your needs! Source: WSJ / NYT / Axios

@MarioNawfal Happy they're choosing a cease fire instead but the golden question is, does the cease fire also apply to Israel? What will happen if they continue striking Iranian infrastructures? Would the cease fire still hold if that happens?

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇵🇰 BREAKING: Trump announces a two-week ceasefire with Iran, effective immediately, in exchange for the complete and immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. "We received a 10-point proposal from Iran and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all points of past contention have been agreed to." Pakistan brokered it. Trump credits PM Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir directly. Two weeks to finalize a "definitive agreement concerning longterm peace with Iran and peace in the Middle East." This is exactly what I said would happen, down to the mechanism. Pakistan as the mediator, a face-saving off-ramp for both sides, and a framework that lets Trump claim military victory while Iran gets the bombing to stop. The war isn't over yet. But for the first time in 38 days, the guns might actually go quiet tonight. What happens in the next two weeks will determine whether this becomes a lasting peace or just a pause before the next escalation.

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇵🇰 BREAKING: A two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran has been announced by President Trump, effective immediately, with Iran agreeing to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump called Iran's ten-point proposal workable, saying most points of contention have already been agreed upon. Pakistan brokered the deal Trump personally credited PM Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir.