Trenton Toftoy

Hedge funds are the LONGEST across the ag complex in 3 years at $22.8 billion. Record Cotton inflows two weeks ago. Record Sugar inflows last week. Crude Oil is driving capital into #ags and the flow data proves it. 🌾🛢️ #AgMarkets #COT #CrudeOil

🇺🇸The U.S. EPA has finalized 2026 and 2027 biofuel blending volumes (see table below). EPA's report also states: "To provide continued certainty for American corn growers & ethanol producers, EPA will maintain the 15 billion conventional biofuel level for 2026 & 2027."

30d Rainfall. Have’s & Have Not’s

🇺🇸🇨🇳At the White House on Friday, Trump said: “American soybeans are now being shipped to China in record amounts.” Unless something unexpectedly changes, 2025/26 U.S. soybean exports to China are on track to be: ▪️a 19-year low ▪️down 58% from the five-year average

Most of you don't even want to look at Cz6 much less CZ7--- Probably something to take a look at if you are planning to grow #corn in 2027/ 2028. Higest price since December of 2023. 28-month high

🧵U.S. CORN EXPORTS ON A TEAR! 25/26 U.S. Corn exports to set a NEW RECORD, by far!!! US Corn Exports are on a tear!!! Should easily reach 87+ MMTs in 25/26!!! For reference, the US has only once exported over 70 MMTs, in 24/25 when it shipped 72. In 22/23, it shipped out only 42 MMTs. Hence, The U.S. should export over DOUBLE the corn it exported 3 years ago!!! While that is an incredible feat... ...it still won't be enough to prevent U.S. CORN STOCKS from likely reaching a new ALL TIME HIGH ~2.3+ bb or nearly 60 MMTs!!! here's why... 🧵

Corn and Soybean Early Planting Date Maps #plant26 is quickly approaching! Planting before these early plant dates voids the replant benefits for crop insurance unless producers have a private product replant policy in place. The crop will still have all other insurance coverage. #corn #soybeans

Dec Corn - 2026 vs 2025 vs 2024 🌽 2026 Current Price: $4.89 2025 Highest Price: $4.79 (Feb 20th) 2024 Highest Price: $4.96 (May 15th) We are higher than we were all year long last year. In 2024, this was about as high as we got. Dec corn is currently sitting right about at 2-year highs. *** Need some help managing your risk in grain marketing? Try our updates & signals free 👉 dailymarketminute.com/freetrial

🚨🇺🇸 The Valero Port Arthur refinery is one of the largest in the United States The facility processes roughly 395,000 barrels of crude oil per day, making it a critical piece of America's fuel supply chain. Port Arthur sits along the Gulf Coast refining corridor that handles nearly half of all U.S. refining capacity. This comes at the worst possible time. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Iraq declared force majeure on its oil production. Qatar's LNG hub is damaged. Global crude is above $100. And the U.S. just authorized sales of Iranian and Russian oil to keep markets from spiraling further. Even a temporary shutdown of a facility this size tightens domestic fuel supply at a moment when Americans are already paying $3.90+ at the pump. If repairs take weeks, gas prices in the Gulf Coast region could spike ahead of the rest of the country. Source: KHOU / Reuters

The Westin O’Hare sold to Fortress for $50M ↓39% from the $82M that Clarion paid for the property in 2015. 525-key hotel at 6100 North River Road in Rosemont, Illinois. Twelve story hotel located 1.8 miles from Chicago O'Hare International Airport. -TheRealDeal #commercialrealestate

While corn is now trading on its long-term trend, its variations around it are not "normally" distributed. Indeed, while corn usually bottoms at -1.5 standard deviation (σ) below its long-term trend, it tends to peak way higher, reaching up to 4 standard deviations above trend. This means that the upside potential is commensurate compared to the downside risk, what creates an attractive risk rewards when the price is at or below trend. $CORN

From the Weekender: Long and holding on for dear life Near-record length in #soybeans & oil + meal buying has pushed the soy complex to a combined net long above 400k contracts—a level exceeded just 4X in history: 2X in the past 2 weeks 2X in the fall of 2020 🔗in bio

Sioux County takes top position this week with a sale at $26,800/acre. March is coming to an end and auction volume will fall off for planting season and most of growing season. bit.ly/4uHzwpL #IowaLandAuctionPrices

🚨 ALERTE : APOCALYPSE À TÉHÉRAN 🚨 🇺🇸🇮🇱USA & Israël ont décidé d'en finir : bombardements incessants sur des sites au cœur de Téhéran. 🇮🇷Scènes apocalyptiques, explosions partout, la capitale iranienne en flammes ! La fin approche pour le régime ? 🔥💥

🚨🇮🇱🇮🇷 BREAKING: Fox News confirms Israel’s Iron Dome has FAILED against Iranian ballistic missiles, with chaos unfolding on the ground and multiple injuries reported. a dramatic escalation now rattling the Middle Eas... View more

Hedge funds are the LONGEST in ag futures since July 2023. $19.2B net long. 📈 Energy is the engine, and speculators are positioned for higher prices across the agriculture complex. 🌽🛢️

Record high temperatures were again abundant across the Southwest with readings shattering previous records by around 10°F. These also tied or exceeded all-time March records again today. More of the same tomorrow before slight cooling arrives Sunday. #azwx #cawx

Here's a map of domestic migration in the US. It's one of the single best metrics for assessing the health/desirability of an area. It means already-established Americans are actively choosing to move there. What's winning? Sunbelt suburbs and areas with access to nature.

At this hour, every station in Arizona and Nevada is recording a new *ALL-TIME* monthly record highs. Numerous other states have a majority of stations also recording new all-time high temperatures. Historic is, in my opinion, an understatement.

NEW: In a letter to employees, United CEO Scott Kirby says the airline is prepping for oil to hit $175/barrel & “doesn't get back down to $100/barrel until the end of 2027.” United is shaving 3% of off-peak flights - “think redeyes, Tues/Wed/Sat flying” - this spring & summer.