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Fun Econ experiment with #UATX freshman in my economics 101 class! This was filmed - video coming soon thanks to the talented Mr Sayer Baca (class of 2028).
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Tim Kane, PhD
6.3K posts
Tim Kane, PhD
@TimmerKane
SuperDad. UATX professor of economics. Visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford. Don’t blame my kids or employers for the things I say!
Austin, TX Beigetreten Mart 2009
433 Folgt3.2K Follower
@JamesSurowiecki Yes James and thank you.
As a long time US soccer fan : Yes.
The game is getting worse. Real European football fans know this as well. They and we are exasperated by a broken governing institutions FIFA. What does your analytical prowess tell us about that?
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I await all the people calling me a casual, but I've been watching soccer for almost 30 years, and the decline in goals from open play over the past decade, and the improvement in mediocre to bad teams' ability to park the bus, are real problems.
Ridiculous that a team with Olise, Mbappe, Barcola, Dembele, and Doue could be held to maybe one good chance from open play in 90 minutes because their opponent was intent on never taking a single chance.
Alec MacGillis@AlecMacGillis
What an ugly dull game. The dreadful VAR call annulling the German goal vs Paraguay cost us all a true July 4 Philly showdown of continental rivals.
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Tim Kane, PhD retweetet
Goalposts moved - Khanna wants wealth tax at $50M down from $1 billion. How long before $1 million? Hold on to your 401k.
Ro Khanna@RoKhanna
I make the philosophical case for tax fairness and taxing billionaire wealth. I welcome an argument on the merits for this new social contract. Read here: open.substack.com/pub/rokhannaus…
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Tim Kane, PhD retweetet
This is really cool — a great model for what serious introspective journalism can look like with AI
Archie Hall@ArchieHall
IS THE ECONOMIST ALWAYS WRONG? Scandalously, in some circles @TheEconomist has a reputation as a contrarian indicator. This week we fessed up to getting a big call on oil prices from April wrong. Obviously our goal is not perfectly-hedged (and perfectly boring) predictive accuracy: often it is to stimulate, provoke, and challenge. But I did want to test that wider allegation, so I ran a series of LLM scorers across our full leader database since 2000 (7,000 leaders in all.) You can see the results in the chart below: each dot is one of the 1,400 leaders where we identified concrete and falsifiable predictions that were central to the argument. Higher = more accurate, further to the right = more contrarian. We do well, unsurprisingly, when aligned with conventional wisdom. We often do worse when truly out on a limb. But actually, on average, we are a bit likelier to be right than wrong on our somewhat-out-of-consensus calls. All round, a respectable performance. And as @ecurrnomics points out an accompanying leader, there is no shame at all in being beaten by the market: as good free-marketers we believe deeply in the aggregated wisdom of prices. Take a look at my piece here, which includes a canter through our best and worst calls of the last quarter-century: economist.com/interactive/fi…
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I agree!
They should try out a hundred variations, not just that one. And I’ll bet they will find dozens that don’t suck like the current rule.
Two offhand:
No offside once the ball is already in the box would be a start.
No offside once the ball is in the box - resetting only after the ball leaves the penalty area.
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@dilanesper You are trying to create tribal national divisions to sidetrack a serious conversation. A common sense rule for offside has evolved into a nitpicking technological exercise with spirit-sapping long reviews. And I know plenty of non-Americans in England and Scotland who hate it.
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Imagine if British people got into the World Baseball Classic and, having watched 4 baseball games, flooded twitter with how bad the balk rule is and how some player shouldn't have been kicked out of the game for arguing.
That's basically US soccer fans right now.
Collin Reid@CREID2852
@dilanesper Please define offensive Line holding to me. The most unexplainable rule of all Sports. What is a balk?
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@JoePompliano We had more Americans watching than most countries have total population.
Rising tide!
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BREAKING: The USMNT's win against Bosnia-Herzegovina averaged 24.4 million viewers on Fox, peaking at 31.8 million.
That makes it the most-watched soccer telecast in English-language U.S. history.
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Tim Kane, PhD retweetet
Should this have been a penalty?
If Balo goes down, it's 100% called...
I think the fact that he stayed up is why there was no whistle.
The question is... why no VAR...? 👀
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@clevefan1979 Not so. Soccer is a game where godlike Refs, not coherent rules, are in charge.
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@mysteriouskat Because his words are naive. A higher price is the only way to preserve a scarce good.
Then again, you're asking a socialist without any sense of the laws of economics to be mayor, which is like asking him to design a rocket ship with crayons and glue.
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I struggle with heat, but the responses to his post are a bit insane. It's a heat wave, the power grid is overwhelmed, he's trying to prevent a blackout that's worse for everyone. New York probably needs to improve on th grid, but in this moment, is this ask really so insane?
Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani@NYCMayor
New York: it's hot out there, and the power grid is working overtime to keep us cool. Set your AC to 78 degrees, turn off lights/electronics you're not using, and unplug what you can. Our City is doing its part too: maintaining the 78 degrees rule in our buildings, dimming/turning off our lights during peak electricity demand, asking private partners to do the same, and powering down non-essential equipment. A stable grid means the AC stays on, and lives are saved. Let's ease demand — and get through the heat — together.
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@themoviedadsc Thank you. Somebody gets it! The slavish devotion to rules, laws, regulations is -- they do not realize it -- hilarious.
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After sleeping on it, I find it even more absurd that *intent* gets no analysis after a red card where a next game suspension is also attached to the penalty.
"ThAt'S hOw It'S aLwAyS bEen."
Then soccer has had an egregiously dumb rule and is even dumber for not fixing it.
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The plea from any mayor to set your thermostat at their preferred temp is emotionally understandable but also genuinely ignorant. Heads up: a mechanism was discovered that you should know about that efficiently rations scarce resources (like electricity ... and bread, water, apartments, shrimp, gasoline, etc infinitum) called PRICE.
As they say in Long Island: Look Into It!
So if you care about saving water out West (I do) or keeping electricity on for hospitals (I do) or more housing in Manhattan (I do) then stop with the ignorant socialist bleating. Let prices free. Higher prices in the short run send incentive signals, encourage entrepreneurs, and lead to this stuff called prosperity and abundance in the long run.
I know, seeing over the long term is not how the socialist eye focuses, but you can learn from history.
Worry about the environment? I do. That's why I reject the Soviet model (See: Lake Baikal, Aral Sea, Chernobyl) and embrace time-tested model of free markets which continue evolving toward an ever stronger, healthier economy.
GIF
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@FootFanChic @GrantPaulsen FIFA expects referees to use judgment. That’s why the other refs in other games didn’t give red cards for unintentional rakes.
I’m not calling for Messi to have gotten red card for a worse rake. Are you?
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@TimmerKane @GrantPaulsen FIFA's red card rule does not factor in intentionality. You could've looked up the rule before spouting off.
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1) It is possible that I don’t know enough and that’s a perfectly reasonable red card in World Cup play.
2) That call is why soccer will never catch all the way on in the US. To have a guy booted AND then miss a game for that is an outrage.
My son asked me “why is he getting kicked out.” And I said “because he stepped on that guy’s foot.” And then I realized how insane that is.
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Tim Kane, PhD retweetet
@usmntonly The fact that some of you don't think the perception and actions done by each referee will be different from one another.
We have seen other players do that without getting carded too, not only Messi.
All these were also not carded too
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@AliceFromQueens @asymmetricinfo We are talking about national averages. Remember, Japan had its leading sectors as well. And they were massively financially subsidized. So called strategic sectors justify all kinds of inefficient subsidies — cars, chips, airplanes, steel. They don’t last.
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@TimmerKane @asymmetricinfo Semiconductor and car industries in China dont fit that
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Guess I'm a weirdo
imo US capitalism isn't threatened, *because* of a left-right consensus that purity on global free trade & on private-ownership of industry can be lousy for Americans.
The impure Fed is now recognized as a capitalist bulwark. Industrial policy will be, too.
Richard Hanania@RichardHanania
The rise of socialism can’t be separated from conservatives no longer presenting an intellectual defense for capitalism. Fifteen years ago, conservatives would cite people like Thomas Sowell and Milton Friedman, explain why the Obama administration was creating moral hazards, etc. Today, that’s completely gone. You have postliberals and people like Vance who borrow from leftists in critiquing capitalism and saying that it’s failed. Trump does mercantilism and takes stakes in companies, beyond anything Obama did. So conservatives stop defending capitalism, and then get upset that socialism wins. You people are the ones who talk about “protecting jobs from foreign competition” as if that’s consistent with a belief in markets. The left is higher IQ, so can see the contradiction there. Nativism is just less principled and intellectually consistent socialism. The left takes the exact same assumptions and subtracts the nativism, and suddenly the right gets upset that they arrive at socialism.
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That was the first World Cup with red cards. Cards were an innovation — not in use in the 1966 WC or prior. That’s why.
The fake traditionalists are upset to imagine an American suggesting that football rules be changed without knowing the history of the game. And naturally, red cards are newly given for hurt feelings. It’s laughable that THAT new rule is fine — but talking about PKs, the evolution of ultra defensive schemes by weaker teams, or the rise (and bias) of red cards is upsetting.
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I desperately need people who only watch football every 4 years to stop suggesting rule changes.
Yes, the offsides rule makes sense. No, there should not be unlimited substitutions. Yes, a penalty shootout is the best way to settle a draw.
The world’s biggest sport doesn’t need your alterations.
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@NaithanJones Or at a minimum allow replacement player when a red is given.
Remember when the refs gave USA two red cards against Italy? Always stacked nonsense.
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FIFA was in the midst of creating 2m new soccer fans, and they let their bias crap referees mess up the bag for them. That was quite obviously not a red. There has to be a way to appeal these types of obviously wrong decisions in the future
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@compliantvc Exactly. Where’s the parking? The grocery?
I’m guessing you don’t live there either.
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Henrick, surely you know that there’s a tiny connection between *European* civilizations and the democracies of the New World?
Also, the celebration isn’t about length of civilization, but country and government. For example, Napoleonic France was replaced and replaced and replaced by other French governments long after we Declared Independence.
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@asymmetricinfo @AliceFromQueens Arguably centrally planned growth in the Asian tiger model only works for catch-up to the frontier. It does not work after reaching 80 percent of leading country.
That’s why growth decelerated
In all the Asian tigers … Japan most notably. Also in China.
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When industrial policy works, as in the Asian tigers, it does so by suppressing wages and consumption, allowing accumulation of larger pools of investment capital to fund export industries. Questionable whether it can work in any sense in a country that leads the innovation frontier, but it will definitely not have the effects that both left and right crave, of boosting wages and consumption for ordinary workers.
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