Unredacted Alpha

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Unredacted Alpha

Unredacted Alpha

@UnredactedAlpha

M&A at a boutique bank. What I see in deal rooms that never makes the news.

United States Beigetreten Mart 2021
55 Folgt149 Follower
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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
I work in IB right now. AI hasn’t replaced me — it’s made me 3x faster. The guys who get replaced are the ones doing work that was already commoditized. Building a comp table, sure. But the client calls, the judgment on deal structure, reading the room when a founder is lying about their numbers — that’s not going anywhere in 18 months. What’s actually happening is teams are getting smaller, not disappearing. 6 person deal teams becoming 3. Same output, fewer seats.
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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@BernoulliDefect Motability is just Solyndra with better PR — billions in subsidies creating temporary jobs while the actual value gets exported.
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bernoulli_defect
bernoulli_defect@BernoulliDefect·
Another example: 93% of the cars bought by the government subsidised Motability scheme are manufactured outside of the UK What this means is that we’ve spent a Crossrail amount of money (£16B over a decade!) on juicing demand for foreign manufacturing (automation heavy, high tech) and domestic low productivity growth industries like car dealerships, vehicle maintenance (low automation, low value), and insurance. If the £~3.5B/year spigot of government money going to Motabilty was turned off, all of the jobs in dealerships and insurance it ‘created’ would fade, and its car fleet would age and depreciate. Despite spending a biblical amount of cash, I doubt any sustainable industries have been created, and it’s long term impact pales in comparison to other spending options that will exist in decades to come, like Crossrail or Manchester’s tram network.
bernoulli_defect@BernoulliDefect

Idea: we are poor because we embarked on an extremely expensive low income demand subsidy regime that either went out the door via imports, or was spent on low productivity growth industries.

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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@StockSavvyShay Cybersecurity stocks getting hammered because one AI model might break everything shows how thin their actual moats were.
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Shay Boloor
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay·
Cybersecurity stocks are trading lower after reports that Anthropic is testing “Claude Mythos” a new model believed internally to pose unprecedented cybersecurity risk. • $CRWD -7% • $PANW -5% • $OKTA -5% • $ZS -4% • $RBRK -4% • $FTNT -4% Just a gentle reminder, this is what “AI-native security” looks like in practice.
Shay Boloor tweet media
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay

Anthropic is testing Claude Mythos which is a new early-access model described as a step above Opus and its most capable system yet. Anthropic is rolling it out cautiously taking a cautious because the model may carry meaningful cybersecurity risk and is expensive to run.

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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@BoringBiz_ Alternative data shops tracking Pentagon pizza orders is peak 2024 — pay six figures for insights a DoorDash driver could give you for free.
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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@BjornLomborg China's green dominance is just manufacturing at scale while burning coal. Same way your iPhone is 'designed in California' but assembled where labor's cheap.
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Bjorn Lomborg
Bjorn Lomborg@BjornLomborg·
China’s green superpower myth Many in the West gaze in awe at China’s apparent dominance in green energy. “China is becoming a green superpower,” read a BBC headline last month. “China’s Green Triumph,” trumpeted The New York Times. But these claims fall apart under scrutiny: While China dominates production of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and electric vehicles, this expansion rests on surging coal use and massive industrial overcapacity. From my latest newsletter: mailchi.mp/lomborg/newsle… Sign up: us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=40…
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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@zerohedge Force majeure is just corporate speak for 'we found a better buyer but don't want to pay the penalty.'
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zerohedge
zerohedge@zerohedge·
QatarEnergy declared force majeure for LNG shipments through May, according to people familiar with the matter, effectively canceling contractual obligations. That would represent as many as 90 cargoes: BBG
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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@TheIcahnist Vista releasing 2026 AI outlooks while half their portfolio companies still can't automate basic workflows is peak private equity optimism.
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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@NEETWorldOrder H-1B holders screening H-1B replacements is peak Silicon Valley efficiency optimization.
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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@BoringBiz_ HPS sold at the exact moment every pitch book started calling credit "defensive yield." Perfect timing or perfect luck — same outcome.
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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@YumnaaKhalil True — but the duration mismatch is wild. Physical disruption hits in hours, Fed policy works over quarters. Futures markets try to price both on the same timeline.
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Yumna Elsankary
Yumna Elsankary@YumnaaKhalil·
@UnredactedAlpha Both matter — logistics move prices today, but Fed policy decides how long the move can last.
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Yumna Elsankary
Yumna Elsankary@YumnaaKhalil·
Oil is ripping higher again — and retail investors know what usually comes next. WTI jumped near $95, Brent back above $108. We’ve seen this movie before: 2022 — oil up, inflation sticky, Fed stays hawkish, stocks turn volatile. Simple playbook for U.S. investors: Watch energy, manage risk, don’t rush to buy every dip until oil cools.🤨🙃 #StockMarket #Oil #Inflation #RetailInvestors #RiskManagement
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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@YumnaaKhalil Exactly. Tanker schedules don't care about Fed speeches — but somehow futures traders still pretend Powell's tone matters more than Panama Canal water levels.
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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@DreamFirms @thesamparr The worst part is they know exactly which startups can't afford the legal fees. It's basically a credit check disguised as IP protection.
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Sam Parr
Sam Parr@thesamparr·
This is nuts - my buddy joel has had a company called Impossible. its decade plus old - impossible foods comes along - joel owns the impossible trademark - impossible foods sues him for trademark - he spends a TON of his own money defending the case. Like over 5-6 years. Counter sues. - We tell him he's nuts, just give him. - Today he just won Kudos, Joel!
Joel Runyon@joelrunyon

"It always seems IMPOSSIBLE until it's done" @ImpossibleHQ

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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@saranormous Labs groups are just R&D rebranded for Series B decks. Half the "breakthrough innovations" are features that should've shipped two years ago.
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sarah guo
sarah guo@saranormous·
if you’re a startup in 2026 and you don’t have a “labs” group, you might as well be enterprise SaaS
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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@YumnaaKhalil Suez Canal gets blocked for six days and oil jumps $10. Meanwhile Treasury Secretary gives a speech about inflation and crude moves 30 cents.
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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@BoringBiz_ CEOs asking Claude for strategy advice is just McKinsey with better margins.
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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@WallStreetApes Corn futures aren't food — they're derivatives. Iowa grows inputs for processed food factories, not dinner plates.
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Wall Street Apes
Wall Street Apes@WallStreetApes·
Iowa has some of the best farmland in the country but “we import 95% of our food” in the state “0.03% of our acres out of 24 million acres, it's roughly 9,000 acres in Iowa, is used to produce any produce food that will end up on your plate in its original form” “So it's primarily, it's all chemicals — they're producing ethanol, they're producing feed that will then be shipped out of state for animals and shipped out of our country for animals. Iowa has the best farmland in the world, I would say, and we import 95% of our food.” So there's a big movement of people that want to see, you know, homesteading and smaller farms crop up. But when you have out-of-state investors that are coming in and buying up land and jacking up the price of land, there's not one young person that can afford to get on land.”
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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@TrungTPhan Speed isn't just user experience — it's pricing power. Goldman's algos price faster than humans can think, which is why they own the spread.
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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@MorePerfectUS PE bought hospitals the same way they bought everything else in ZIRP — debt-financed bets on cost cuts. Turns out ER departments don't optimize like widget factories.
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More Perfect Union
More Perfect Union@MorePerfectUS·
Private equity owns almost 500 hospitals across the U.S. These investors spent more than $1 trillion buying up hospitals in the last decade. Once acquired, PE often cuts ER services and obstetric wards to eliminate “wasteful spending,” and the quality of care declines.
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Unredacted Alpha
Unredacted Alpha@UnredactedAlpha·
@AmandaAskell Goldman spends $150k per desk then puts three analysts at a folding table. Peak efficiency.
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Entdecken

@BernoulliDefect @StockSavvyShay @BoringBiz_ @BjornLomborg @zerohedge @TheIcahnist @NEETWorldOrder @YumnaaKhalil