UpwardCap

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UpwardCap

UpwardCap

@UpwardCap

Momentum chaser. Five year rolling investment horizon + absolute returns. Here for others perspectives and their memes.

Beigetreten Eylül 2020
1.4K Folgt174 Follower
UpwardCap
UpwardCap@UpwardCap·
@nft_tipster @orrdavid He's probably fine tuned most of the gpt responses to the way he likes it But yeah probably smart to use both now and switch between the three best model of the day
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NFT Tipster
NFT Tipster@nft_tipster·
@orrdavid Why don't you use Claude? It's miles better for anything related to stocks research.
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UpwardCap
UpwardCap@UpwardCap·
@JapanDeepValue1 Price from first post in Dec at 2750 then down to 1870 then back up to 2750 today What a ride
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Japan Deep Value
Japan Deep Value@JapanDeepValue1·
There are always signs
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Japan Deep Value
Japan Deep Value@JapanDeepValue1·
Digital Garage (4819.T) is one of those Japan “stub” trades that everyone has known about, and in the past had attracted Oasis to be a huge shareholder. On most simple SOTP math, you can conservatively mark the Kakaku. com stake + cash/investments + implied value for the payments/platform business and it starts to look like a negative-EV situation. DG trades around 7x P/CF (4–5x EV/FCF) which is a large discount to Asia and global fintech infrastructure co's. I think the opportunity exists here because Resona, and not the SOTP math (which is all too common in Japan. Oasis’s disclosure shows 8,520,200 shares sold off-market to Resona at 5,972 just a few months ago (vs 2750 last) . So far this transaction has been a major catalyst for share price collapse... but I do think the market may be wrong here. It looks bearish, because the "big stick activist" is not there to push the SOTP discount angle on on the Kakaku. com holdings. But the market may not be considering that this is now a big strategic position for a major Japanese bank. Resona is explicitly positioning the DG payments technology to strengthen the settlement business and push cashless solutions across its 500,000+ corporate customers via joint sales and product development. This is why I keep coming back to the “Resona put.” A major Japan bank now owns over 30% and just recently paid a huge premium to last price for it. They are building distribution + product around DG cashless payments. If the stock keeps trading at a discount to assets (currently negative EV assumptions can be made)... then the cheapest path to unlock value eventually becomes full control. I’m not saying take-private is imminent, but the endgame is intuitive: prove the Resona channel works, scale volumes, and let Resona remove the discount the public market is assigning because it fears a lack of "big stick" activism.
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UpwardCap
UpwardCap@UpwardCap·
@JamesJstuartb @nachkari @cap_zay The level of industrial destruction in IR is staggering. What's the estimated time for recovery, 5+ years to get capacity again to rebuild both infrastructure and defence? $2mm toll is a rounding error & next two weeks they could be hit further
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James Stuart
James Stuart@JamesJstuartb·
@nachkari @cap_zay Houthis were a last resort, iran planned for more escalation. Iran actually went soft and could have done more but they were cautious and thought logically. They didnt want to make an enemy of the world but they want their autonomy. Imo this is setting up for another conflict
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UpwardCap
UpwardCap@UpwardCap·
@orrdavid Can you expand on which type of tokens and where you see it going from here?
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David Orr
David Orr@orrdavid·
Back in 2021 I thought internet tokens were the stupidest thing. "No way will internet tokens be the future," I thought to myself. Turns out I got that one wrong...
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GSM 🍑💹
GSM 🍑💹@gsm739·
@DonMiami3 But you just said ‘not a single timeline’, but they did. What would boots achieve? They’ve have been VERY careful to limit their stated objectives. Not one of them would be improved by boots
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Don Johnson
Don Johnson@DonMiami3·
Not a single timeline provided in that announcement - a ground war seems more likely now Have a nice evening
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UpwardCap
UpwardCap@UpwardCap·
@TihoBrkan Course of being a covid era fintwit fav
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Tiho Brkan
Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan·
Ultra-luxury house, Hermes $RMS, is down 42% and dead money for 5 years now. Considering how extreme inflation has been, shareholders probably lost a lot of purchasing power (30-50%), even if you're breaking even nominally.
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UnHedgedChatter
UnHedgedChatter@UnHedgedChatter·
Monitoring the Sunday hype.
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Jake DeMichele
Jake DeMichele@jake_demichele·
@pitdesi It’s a nice house calling $3.2 million for 3500 square feet cheap without an ocean view is some next level delusion or trolling though. If I’m spending that kind of money I’m taking this every time. zillow.com/homedetails/42…
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Sheel Mohnot
Sheel Mohnot@pitdesi·
Got served this listing for a house in the Hollywood Hills and it’s so gorgeous that it almost makes me want to live in a completely car-dependent area in LA Also - how is this so cheap? redf.in/wOqAVr
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UnHedgedChatter
UnHedgedChatter@UnHedgedChatter·
Monitoring the Hype…
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UpwardCap
UpwardCap@UpwardCap·
@nachkari Max fill spr before strike seems obvious in hindsight
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