Japan Deep Value

I've been thinking a lot recently about what narratives could modify the euphoric investing landscape to a more moderate or even bearish one. Simply put I think it goes like this: Narrative 1: "We cant spend this much anymore" collides with Narrative 2: "They wont let us spend this much anymore" 1 is a markets narrative, 2 is a political narrative

@SteinHajek @japan_guru_x yes truth. this post is from 2023 -- the lesson learned from Hino superficially is they sold an asset to raise some cash for an impending horrible write down...TIJ

@InkFromAStone @jwt0625 Any view on silver diamond? tecnisco.com/en/en_product/…

@jwt0625 wait you told me about diamond-like carbon, cant you just functionally grade DLC onto a striated substrate just to move the heat out of problem areas fast, and worry about recovering the energy elsewhere where it can tolerate the load? DLC->aTiC->TiC->Ti-(diffusion bond)->Cu?

i want to believe, but if you need MBE to make your laser cooling photonic cold plate, idk man

マイクロチャンネルクーラーか！テクニスコ！！ tecnisco.com/product/metal/…

@holden_commodor @CarpeNoctom The rule is when you are selling everything…. Buy z cash

@JapanDeepValue1 @CarpeNoctom usually privacy/meme coins pump once a year.

$BTC - Trade Setup of the Year Candidate?

@holden_commodor @CarpeNoctom Never had much success shitcoining in crypto. I just follow the cycle so I have almost zero allocation atm… probably start buying a few larger ones in sept/oct and trying to figure out the next theme (I think it’s AI agent specialized tokens)

@JapanDeepValue1 @CarpeNoctom Bought this shitcoin a while ago. I do think there is plenty of opportunity in crypto to scalp some random pumps like that.

シンデン・ハイテックス（3131） SKハイニックスの正規代理店で来季見通し◎の半導体銘柄に加えて、blueqat社と提携している量子コンピューター銘柄なのに、何故かワイの他のモメチン銘柄に比較して弱い。

@krugermacro unless the years are 2000-2003

Never sell your winners to buy underperforming dogshit.

@bubbleboi Fanboy flows will flee from TSLA to SpaceX unless they hang this merger over their heads and Tesla might actually be a short.... and we all know Elon will never let shorts ever win

You gotta know a Tesla SpaceX merger is coming too.

@u2yamada margin of safety type investing = have fun staying poor. good risk controls = have fun staying poor

過去の決算資料全部読んで社長の著書も読んで勇気もって１年前に買った株が買値から-5％。先週金曜日に何も考えず適当に買ったフジクラが買値から+13%

also if you want to hear the echo's of my screams into the abyss, look at that Oasis -> Resona transaction in Digital Garage. Oasis was able to sell at a special price above the market... and this transaction ultimately was very destructive for both minority investors and Resona. There was, of course, no explicit greenmail here-- but transactions like this do happen when below the TOB threshold like this one...(but still large enough to tip the scales permanently against minorities)

Greenmail is not possible in Japan. Shareholders can only be bought out at market price, not at special prices above market as happened in the US in the 1970s/1980s when the term was coined. Companies have needed to be forced to do buy backs, but you’re right, at the large cap end of the market we are probably moving past the simple balance sheet restructuring as a major source of shareholder value improvement.

"スチュワードシップ・コードに書かれている趣旨を踏まえていないにもかかわらず、署名して外見を装うのは、機関投資家に資金を出している人たちにとっては本当にいいのか" 金融庁審議官､｢安易な株主還元｣に警鐘－企業に中長期の成長投資促す bloomberg.com/jp/news/articl…

@JamieHalse @nomurasyo well its not explicit greenmail, but as Justice Potter Stewart famously said "I know it when I see it". Activists were buying stock "low" and looking for quick exits via buybacks in stocks where they knew mgmt would want them out of their hair.

seems to me like they are trying to say "no more foreign/activist greenmail". Its not that interesting of a thing to say as the low hanging fruit is probably mostly gone already on that front... we can even see Elliot's Daikin campaign, etc as precedent on where Japan activism may be going. Companies don't need to be forced to do buybacks, but they may need some handholding in achieving growth strategies. I think the right type of activist partner's can be good in that sense. Many of the lower market cap companies that should not be listed in the first place will be tougher nuts to crack. Likely some foreign capital trapped in those situations now... but nobody can say they were unaware of that type of trap.

Reading the article, the content is so different from that implied by the headline. What they are saying is that companies with the opportunity to invest in growth should do that. Currently many companies are scared to invest regardless of the level of maturity of their industry, and have hoarded cash. When shareholders ask them to do something with the cash, they take the easy road and return it to shareholders. Companies would often be better served long-term by investing in bolt-on M&A or making other sensible bets, provided they can execute. If they can't execute, they should stick to buying back their stock cheaply!

@chat_SBC seriously. elite risk mgmt= learn to code

Investing with a margin of safety prob the easiest way to lose money now

@orrdavid not to be a broken record here, but this is the most extreme I've ever seen this situation and I've been around for a while

Breadth is real narrow in Japanese stocks, too. The AI related ones are flying. Lots of stocks down today even as the Japanese market hits an all time high.

its a total disaster, no point in it being listed... the only catalyst here is going to be privatization... I still think the transaction in TRYT proved some precedent for PE interest in this space at much higher multiples than CUC trades at. Ultimately M3 owning so much is why it can remain in purgatory indefinitely

@JapanDeepValue1 continues to be a cux trade 🤣 any thoughts on it now?

9158.T, the ultimate CUC trade, -82% from its IPO high in 2023... now trading below 1x PBR. They provide in home nursing solutions, as well as management consulting, IT, and administrative support to hospitals and clinics-- and a US podiatry business with some messy integration. I figured with the M&A speculation noise in Solasto (6197) this CUC would maybe get a bit of interest.... not the case. CUC operates a capital intensive growth model with lots of staffing fixed costs, but the numbers don't look anywhere as bad as the chart (DYODD). M3 owns 62% of this, and could easily finance the remaining 38% (and debt) with its cash pile.. We have seen that M3 are willing to do strategic M&A.. we saw them take out ELAN (6099.T) last year, a hospital support service provider, and try to take out Benefit One. Not a chart for the faint of heart.

@holden_commodor river has been (and still is) highest conviction micro cap

Wow another leg for the Japanese Timing Layer sector.

@orrdavid x.com/FirstSquawk/st… I think speculation around this has been a huge part of it, it will be harder to "greemail" these rock solid balance sheet companies so the activist trade is unwinding (to a degree)

I've been reviewing what's been going wrong for me since March 1st in the hedge fund. I'm personally in a 20% drawdown (-15% after fees), which is particularly bad for me. Usually during tough periods it's my short book causing problems. This time it's not. My shorts are only losing me 11% since then, while I have been 165% gross short and the Russell 2000 (best proxy for my short book) is up 9%. Gross adjusted, my shorts should be down 15%. Plus, my shorts run higher beta so really they should be down 20%. So alpha on shorts has actually been strong. The market did go up real fast, so of course I lost a lot, but I still consider this a big victory. It's the long book where I am getting *killed*. This is so different from past junk meltups. Stocks like $9022, JR Central who's main asset is the famous Shinkansen that links Tokyo with Nagoya, Kyoto and Osaka. This is one of my big losers. This trades for 7x earnings with solid earnings growth.

@when_to_fold_em @quantzoid Everyone also falsely assumes that it requires zero energy to expel heat in the vacuum of space.

@mofmof_investor x.com/japandeepvalue…

1年前、AIの爆発的な需要でHBMが枯渇すると予想した。その次にFlashが枯渇すると言い続けた。 そして今、キオクシアの決算が凄まじいことになっている。 次に枯渇するのはHDDだと思っている。シーゲイトとウエスタンデジタルと東芝で独占していて、ほかに作れる会社がない。まだ火がついてないけど、どこかで売り上げが爆発する日を待っている。 目立つAIチップの裏で、地味なストレージ銘柄が次のフェーズに入ろうとしているかもしれない。半導体の研究開発の経験が、こういう先読みを可能にしてくれる。

@bubbleboi You are called bubble boi. Assumed that was what you were doing all along

God man I need to stop trading and just start retard maxing by holding a basket of high quality semiconductor companies.