Japan Deep Value
2.3K posts
Japan Deep Value
@JapanDeepValue1
60% of all listed stocks in Japan trade below book value. Follow me on a journey to explore. *hint* governance matters. Not giving investment advice.
Katılım Mart 2023
709 Takip Edilen7.4K Takipçiler
This is pretty crazy. For what it’s worth, SuperMicro makes awesome workstations and servers. It’s a very well-run company, engineering wise.
But I’ll never understand why someone who already has dynastic wealth would ever risk their reputation and freedom for a bit more money.
NIK@ns123abc
🚨BREAKING: SUPER MICRO CO-FOUNDER ARRESTED FOR SMUGGLING $2.5B IN NVIDIA GPUs TO CHINA >SMCI co-founder Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw arrested today >personally holds $464 MILLION in SMCI stock >charged with smuggling BILLIONS in Nvidia servers to china >used a southeast asian shell company to funnel $2.5B in servers to chinese buyers >$510 million worth shipped in just THREE WEEKS in spring 2025 >built thousands of fake dummy servers to fool U.S compliance auditors >caught on surveillance camera using a HAIR DRYER to swap serial number stickers >coordinated the whole thing over encrypted group chats >SMCI down 12% after hours >faces up to 30 years in federal prison ITS SO OVER…
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@FelixSchreibe13 You might want to go back to being an anon account after that move. Haha.
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$AIXA controls ~90% of InP MOCVD reactors and every one ships with LayTec metrology inside, the only provider ensuring atomic-level precision. LayTec is owned by Nynomic (M7U), a tiny German photonics group valued below its book value.
open.substack.com/pub/fwriter/p/…
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@kjnkjp Going private is the right answer for more than 60% of listed companies in Japan. Anyone who is here long enough realizes there is almost no valid reason for having this many public companies that have no investor and trade below book forever.
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@JapanDeepValue1 @japan_guru_x do you have any thoughts on the Mirai industry co $7931. Good operating margin, one of top patent holders , good company culture. An indirect beneficiary of AI data center buildout and grid modernization?
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@gaijinthoughts Death, taxes and a Japanese PM approval rating collapse
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PM Takaichi’s support has fallen 23.5% in 2.5 months. Disapproval has more than doubled from 15.0% to 35.9%.
news.yahoo.co.jp/expert/article…
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citrini lied people died
Citrini@Citrini7
If sentiment flips positive here it seems like crypto has the most torque
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@AltayCapital @MikeFritzell when nobody cares you know it! I suppose if you have access to great cross margining on illiquid Japanese abyss co's then its a decent way to allocate capital (nobody has this, haha!)... either that or when one is bearish beta/momo/index...
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@JapanDeepValue1 @MikeFritzell What's interesting about deep value plays (this isn't one) is that if they disappoint massively the stock rarely collapses. This co below did a massive revision down to profits. 1,000 jpy stock losing 100 per share and stock was flat that day! Not even super illiquid name either!
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The bull case for Japanese software:
- Revenues in yen so not hurt by JPY appreciation
- SaaS penetration rate is 5-7 years behind the US
- Growth is hard to find in Japan, but in SaaS - yes
- Incremental margins in software are high
- Run by young, aggressive CEOs
- Have sold off indiscriminately on gen AI fears
- EV/Sales multiples now often well below 3x
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alright, i just felt a stonk market correction coming and it's a bad one
Spane, Your Average Cornell ’77 Enjoyer@SperrysandNikes
My co-worker just described his financial situation as “emerging wealth” and “pre-rich”
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@AltayCapital @MikeFritzell i thought the same, earnings looked impressive and the market tried to imply that but whoever is selling this keeps doing so... maybe retail will get interested but other than that I doubt institutional capital ever comes back to this (and regrets doing so in the first place)
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@JapanDeepValue1 @MikeFritzell Forecast for this next year looks strong. PayB partnership with JCB, and continued dominance in their niche all look pretty solid. The new forecast is what got me interested though. New president too. If business executes I'll hold if not I'll get out.
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@AltayCapital @MikeFritzell I made an early post about this one with quite a few inaccuracies. activist type (Old Peak) gave up. story has gone nowhere despite what seems like an environment that would provide tailwinds for this biz
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@MikeFritzell Billing System Corporation 3623 looks ok to me given forward p/e and cheapness.
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@taobanker yelling into the abyss just to see if you might one day hear an echo... sounds like someone who has spent some years trading Japan
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tbh I have zero expertise on historical valuation discounts for Swedish (or European) discounts for unlisted subsidiaries. . not an expert here. I do know this situation well and have understood (or some time now) that the valuation potential of the photonics Sub is likely (grossly) mispriced .... I only jumped on your thread here as I think its prudent to be aware that unlisted subsidiaries typically apply a hefty discount (and in most cases even a listed and liquid one!)
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I’d slightly disagree. Japanese companies trade at deep book value because there wasn’t any return to shareholders with things like dividends until recently.
My guess is Sivers primarily trades at low valuations because nobody knew about it and their positioning in the photonic supply chains until recently.
Coupled with the fact they’re on a more obscure European exchange + didn’t pass MC threshold for a lot of funds to be able to buy.
They were also in their cash burn phase (it was well known to $POET retail investors) but they were probably too early.
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The more I look into Sivers
< $SIVE / $SIVEF >
the more I wonder:
How is the laser company for the hyperscaler photonic supply chains…
Valued at ~$200M USD MC?
All the companies that buy and repackage their lasers are now worth $1-4B+?
Pre-product SV AI companies are worth billions?
Pre revenue Photonic companies in development phase line $LWLG are worth $1B+?
Yet the company that makes the silicon photonics/CPO scale up & scale out work.
And has actual revenue.
~$200M…
Reminds me of early $AXTI when I had zero clue how a company worth $500M MC controlled the InP substrate/feedstock supply chain for photonics.
Either I’m completely wrong… or this is the most undervalued and unknown photonics company on the market.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
$SIVE is the upstream laser supplier for CPO and Silicon Photonics. They're the likely $COHR / $LITE type future light source for: - $AMZN Trainium Clusters - $MSFT Maia Clusters and possibly other hyperscalers like $META MTAI and $GOOGL TPU clusters. At a ~$200M MC. Relational Mapping (speculative): $SIVE (light source) -> $POET (optical interposers) -> $MRVL (Likely Celestial Captive) -> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium. $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium $SIVE (light source) -> Enablence -> O-Net -> ? Asia Hyperscalers _ Ongoing: $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> GUC -> ? (Google $TPU) $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar (TeraPHY/SuperNova)-> Wiwynn (captive CPO) -> ? ( $MSFT, $META historically Wiwynn's largest clients). Because of captive models like $MRVL Celestial, they get a free ride. However, they do compete multi-source ELS against Lumentum, Coherent, and $MTSI with Ayar and win anyway in merchant models. But they win either way. For high-volume production ramp up, a large part of it depends on the ongoing Win semi qualification, but this will likely be a large indicator. Again supply chain BOM is extremely confidential. $AMZN will never tell anyone "Hey, we use $SIVE ". But if you put 1+1+1+1+1 together, you can piece together the likely suppliers. Most people see "Poet Starlight" uses $SIVE. Or Ayar uses $SIVE. But don't map all the multi-hop relations to see where they end up. I do think $SIVE is an extremely undiscovered opportunity as the next possible mini $LITE for Silicon Photonics at $200m MC. As they're the likely upstream laser supplier for hyperscaler supply chains for future CPO/Silicon Photonics scale up with cw dfb lasers and scale out with laser arrays.
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for me long term waiting was validated by what I consider to be a very low entry point on price paid vs potential valuation. It's so hard to know what comes after failed listing attempt. I don't have any insight on mgmt goals and plans... and European's (like Japanese) tend to be less market sensitive/savvy about timing on events like this. Photonics theme seems great for now, but will that be considered by mgmt on plans to expedite listing its exciting subsidiary?? who knows...
I've had years of frustration with companies that already have a liquid and listed subsidiary position that is worth significantly less than the market cap of the parent company... and the market can price it this way as long as shareholders do not see a path to seeing returns from monetizing that asset (if you look at some of my previous posts you will find many examples...). Ultimately the better trade here would be to buy Siver's Photonics directly, but since nobody can do that... a heavily discounted public listing like SIVE should in theory be a decent opportunity if it is in fact discounted enough (DYODD here..)
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@JapanDeepValue1 @aleabitoreddit This is really insightful, thank you. What timelines do you see for Sivers if you're being optimistic?
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@SowingAlphaSeed throw a dart at any stock in the TSE growth Index and you will see almost all of the top holders are short positions. Quants love shorting small/micro caps as they are generally awful and have no passive or real money buyer to stop the "quant crush"
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If I was going to pursue fundamental stock picking seriously my path would be something like:
1. Take an accounting course
2. Go through microcaps A-Z
3. For each microcap I like, take a 1-2% long position
4. For each microcap I dislike, take a 0.1-0.2% short position
By the time you've built a full portfolio you'll have a decent sample size and can start adjusting. Is your level of conviction accurate and you should adjust sizing? Should you give up shorting individual equities? Are there industries you suck at? Etc.
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@00000sol0 Honestly it’s the opposite. Random punter seems less offensive than someone who clearly knows better
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@JapanDeepValue1 when zephyr does it it's cool because he's 100% earned the right to do so
when some random pumper tweets a ticker, and later follows up w that, its slightly cringe ya
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“Did you listen anon?”
This has to be one of the most revolting and subversive things that I keep seeing from popular fintwit accounts.
It’s either a hubristic ego flex or an opportunistic tactic… either way it is not rooted in any virtuous cycle of investing.
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Copackaged optics is not reaching widespread deployment in data centers for the next 10 years. I don’t care what the roadmaps says !!! Everyone who is shilling this is either lying to you or doesn’t actually work in a data center.
LASERS FAIL ALL THE TIME. That’s LITERALLY facts ask anyone who is running large data centers they need to swap pluggable transceivers DAILY.
When your laser dies in a CPO system, your switch ASIC is a brick and is going to take down all the fucking traffic! Not just some network performance degradation it’s going to turn into a fucking brick you need to buy a new one and it costs like 300k dollars lmaooooo.
And the “efficiency” argument many people will say is not as good as it looks on paper. Your optical engine still needs DSP chips for FEC and equalization. The lasers need thermoelectric coolers sitting millimeters away from an ASIC dumping 300+ watts of heat. The TEC power draw eats the efficiency gains that people like to tout in their pitch decks. Not to mention PHY’s are like 15% at most of data center power draw? You’re taking that big of a risk for a relatively small gain.
Then there are coupling losses that are locked in at assembly forever... which just makes manufacturing this reliably at scale a nightmare. Bro not every PHY is the same based on how you placed the fiber like give me a breaaaaaaak.
Ask anyone who actually has a PhD in photonics what they think they are going to tell you the same shit. Everyone telling you different than me needs to financially benefit from their investments. I don’t!
Hardwired@hardwiredai
@bubbleboi Ayar Labs has working silicon and Intel invested in them. CPO solves GPU-to-GPU bandwidth at 100K+ cluster scale, not inference throughput. "Will never ship" vs a confirmed supply chain is doing a lot of work.
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@vanckzhu @PhotonCap That press release from Dec btw. I’ve only mentioned it a few times deeply nested in comments sections as the market cap is just too small. But it’s interesting
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$TSEM
Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) and Oriole Networks announced a collaboration (March 16, timed to OFC 2026) to commercialize nanosecond-speed optical circuit switching (OCS) on Tower's SiPho foundry platform — targeting AI cluster networking.
The problem: As GPU clusters scale beyond 16,000 nodes, multi-tier electrical packet switching creates severe tail latency and power bottlenecks. Communication overhead in existing networks typically runs in the tens of percent, meaning GPUs spend significant time waiting for data rather than computing.
Oriole's solution — PRISM/PRISM Ultra:
-Replaces all tiers of electrical switching with edge-based nanosecond OCS + fully passive glass core (zero power, zero cooling)
-PRISM Ultra delivers 51.2 Tb/s per xPU, 180ns xPU-to-xPU latency, and 1-hop contention-free connectivity scaling to 1 million nodes
morningstar.com/news/business-…
-Reduces training communication overhead to under 1%
Tower's role: Provides the high-volume SiPho fab for Oriole's XTR modules (integrated photonic switch + transceiver), integrating lasers, optical amplification, switching, modulation, and detection on a single platform.
Strategic context: This is part of Tower's aggressive SiPho platform diversification in early 2026 — $NVDA (1.6T transceivers), Scintil (DWDM CPO lasers), Salience Labs (OCS), LightIC (LiDAR), Xanadu (quantum). Tower is positioning itself as the " $TSM of silicon photonics."
Watch for: Commercial deployment timeline, hyperscaler adoption signals, and how Oriole's radical full-stack OCS approach competes with $GOOGL's slower OCS and incremental CPO strategies.
Photon Capital@PhotonCap
I've been tracking Tower Semiconductor $TSEM's silicon photonics moves for a long time. Every partnership, every earnings call, every capacity expansion. Today I finally put it all into one article. $TSEM just signed a development agreement to integrate $LWLG's electro-optic polymer into its PH18 silicon photonics PDK — 8 days after NVIDIA committed $4B to Lumentum and Coherent. This isn't a coincidence. It's a pattern. A foundry betting $920M on SiPho doesn't put an unproven material on its menu without conviction. I wrote a deep dive covering: → Why TSEM's PH18 PDK integration changes LWLG's trajectory from "interesting demo" to "industry-standard candidate" → The 6-partner SiPho ecosystem TSEM built in 12 months (NVIDIA, Scintil, Salience Labs, and more) → EO polymer vs. TFLN — an honest comparison, including where HyperLight is already ahead → TAM → SAM: what LWLG can actually capture (hint: it's not $100B) → The risks that could break the thesis The first half is free — start there to understand the technology. $TSEM $LWLG substack.com/home/post/p-19…
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